The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth in recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, and endogenous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd in investment and stimulate economic growth, but expectation about future bubbles crowds out investment and reduces economic growth. We identify bubbly episodes by estimating the model using the U.S. data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the IT and housing bubbles not only caused economic booms but also lifted U.S. GDP by almost 2 percentage points permanently, but the economy could have grown even faster if people had believed that asset bubbles would never arise.

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

This statistic shows public evaluation of who was to blame for the economic problems in each country as of 2012. 78 percent of respondents in Spain felt that it was the banks and financial institutions that were most to blame for the current economic problems in their own country as of 2012.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q3 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

This dataset is about book series and is filtered where the books is Will China's economy collapse?. It has 10 columns such as authors, average publication date, book publishers, book series, and books. The data is ordered by earliest publication date (descending).

The Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), which began due to the collapse of the U.S. housing market, had a negative effect in many regions across the globe. The global recession which followed the crisis in 2008 and 2009 showed how interdependent and synchronized many of the world's economies had become, with the largest advanced economies showing very similar patterns of negative GDP growth during the crisis. Among the largest emerging economies (commonly referred to as the 'E7'), however, a different pattern emerged, with some countries avoiding a recession altogether. Some commentators have particularly pointed to 2008-2009 as the moment in which China emerged on the world stage as an economic superpower and a key driver of global economic growth. The Great Recession in the developing world While some countries, such as Russia, Mexico, and Turkey, experienced severe recessions due to their connections to the United States and Europe, others such as China, India, and Indonesia managed to record significant economic growth during the period. This can be partly explained by the decoupling from western financial systems which these countries undertook following the Asian financial crises of 1997, making many Asian nations more wary of opening their countries to 'hot money' from other countries. Other likely explanations of this trend are that these countries have large domestic economies which are not entirely reliant on the advanced economies, that their export sectors produce goods which are inelastic (meaning they are still bought during recessions), and that the Chinese economic stimulus worth almost 600 billion U.S. dollars in 2008/2009 increased growth in the region.

Report and codes of the replicators below.

Original authors’ provided a short response and answered a question. Waiting for their final response. Original Authors’ Package: https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/173441/version/V 1/view

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data and charts presented in Egypt’s 2023-24 economic crisis: Will this time be different? by Ruchir Agarwal and Adnan Mazarei, PIIE Policy Brief 24-6.

If you use the data, please cite as: Agarwal, Ruchir, and Adnan Mazarei. 2024. Egypt’s 2023-24 economic crisis: Will this time be different?. PIIE Policy Brief 24-6. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Crash proof 2.0 : how to profit from the economic collapse is a book. It was written by Peter Schiff and published by John Wiley&Sons in 2012.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

This database that can be used for macro-level analysis of road accidents on interurban roads in Europe. Through the variables it contains, road accidents can be explained using variables related to economic resources invested in roads, traffic, road network, socioeconomic characteristics, legislative measures and meteorology. This repository contains the data used for the analysis carried out in the papers:

1. Calvo-Poyo F., Navarro-Moreno J., de Oña J. (2020) Road Investment and Traffic Safety: An International Study. Sustainability 12:6332. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12166332

2. Navarro-Moreno J., Calvo-Poyo F., de Oña J. (2022) Influence of road investment and maintenance expenses on injured traffic crashes in European roads. Int J Sustain Transp 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2022.2082344

3. Navarro-Moreno, J., Calvo-Poyo, F., de Oña, J. (2022) Investment in roads and traffic safety: linked to economic development? A European comparison. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22567

The file with the database is available in excel.

DATA SOURCES

The database presents data from 1998 up to 2016 from 20 european countries: Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom. Crash data were obtained from the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) [2], which offers enough level of disaggregation between crashes occurring inside versus outside built-up areas.

With reference to the data on economic resources invested in roadways, deserving mention –given its extensive coverage—is the database of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), managed by the International Transport Forum (ITF) [1], which collects data on investment in the construction of roads and expenditure on their maintenance, following the definitions of the United Nations System of National Accounts (2008 SNA). Despite some data gaps, the time series present consistency from one country to the next. Moreover, to confirm the consistency and complete missing data, diverse additional sources, mainly the national Transport Ministries of the respective countries were consulted. All the monetary values were converted to constant prices in 2015 using the OECD price index.

To obtain the rest of the variables in the database, as well as to ensure consistency in the time series and complete missing data, the following national and international sources were consulted:

• Eurostat [3]
• Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE). European Union [4]
• The World Bank [5]
• World Health Organization (WHO) [6]
• European Transport Safety Council (ETSC) [7]
• European Road Safety Observatory (ERSO) [8]
• European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) of the Copernicus Climate Change [9]
• EU BestPoint-Project [10]
• Ministerstvo dopravy, República Checa [11]
• Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur, Alemania [12]
• Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat, Países Bajos [13]
• National Statistics Office, Malta [14]
• Ministério da Economia e Transição Digital, Portugal [15]
• Ministerio de Fomento, España [16]
• Trafikverket, Suecia [17]
• Ministère de l’environnement de l’énergie et de la mer, Francia [18]
• Ministero delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti, Italia [19–25]
• Statistisk sentralbyrå, Noruega [26-29]
• Instituto Nacional de Estatística, Portugal [30]
• Infraestruturas de Portugal S.A., Portugal [31–35]
• Road Safety Authority (RSA), Ireland [36]

DATA BASE DESCRIPTION

The database was made trying to combine the longest possible time period with the maximum number of countries with complete dataset (some countries like Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta and Norway were eliminated from the definitive dataset owing to a lack of data or breaks in the time series of records). Taking into account the above, the definitive database is made up of 19 variables, and contains data from 20 countries during the period between 1998 and 2016. Table 1 shows the coding of the variables, as well as their definition and unit of measure.

Table. Database metadata

| Code | Variable and unit | | fatal_pc_km | Fatalities per billion passenger-km | | fatal_mIn | Fatalities per million inhabitants | | accid_adj_pc_km | Accidents per billion passenger-km | | p_km | Billions of passenger-km | | croad_inv_km | Investment in roads construction per kilometer, €/km (2015 constant prices) | | croad_maint_km | Expenditure on roads maintenance per kilometer €/km (2015 constant prices) | | prop_motorwa | Proportion of motorways over the total road network (%) | | populat | Population, in millions of inhabitants | | unemploy | Unemployment rate (%) | | petro_car | Consumption of gasolina and petrol derivatives (tons), per tourism | | alcohol | Alcohol consumption, in liters per capita (age > 15) | | mot_index | Motorization index, in cars per 1,000 inhabitants | | den_populat | Population density, inhabitants/km2 | | cgdp | Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in € (2015 constant prices) | | cgdp_cap | GDP per capita, in € (2015 constant prices) | | precipit | Average depth of rain water during a year (mm) | | prop_elder | Proportion of people over 65 years (%) | | dps | Demerit Point System, dummy variable (0: no; 1: yes) | | freight | Freight transport, in billions of ton-km |

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This database was carried out in the framework of the project “Inversión en carreteras y seguridad vial: un análisis internacional (INCASE)”, financed by: FEDER/Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades–Agencia Estatal de Investigación/Proyecto RTI2018-101770-B-I00, within Spain´s National Program of R+D+i Oriented to Societal Challenges.

Moreover, the authors would like to express their gratitude to the Ministry of Transport, Mobility and Urban Agenda of Spain (MITMA), and the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure of Germany (BMVI) for providing data for this study.

REFERENCES

1. International Transport Forum OECD iLibrary | Transport infrastructure investment and maintenance.

2. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNECE Statistical Database Available online: https://w3.unece.org/PXWeb2015/pxweb/en/STAT/STAT_40-TRTRANS/?rxid=18ad5d0d-bd5e-476f-ab7c-40545e802eeb (accessed on Apr 28, 2020).

3. European Commission Database - Eurostat Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database (accessed on Apr 28, 2021).

4. Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport. European Commission EU Transport in figures - Statistical Pocketbooks Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/facts-fundings/statistics_en (accessed on Apr 28, 2021).

5. World Bank Group World Bank Open Data | Data Available online: https://data.worldbank.org/ (accessed on Apr 30, 2021).

6. World Health Organization (WHO) WHO Global Information System on Alcohol and Health Available online: https://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.GISAH?lang=en (accessed on Apr 29, 2021).

7. European Transport Safety Council (ETSC) Traffic Law Enforcement across the EU - Tackling the Three Main Killers on Europe’s Roads; Brussels, Belgium, 2011;

8. Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate data for the European energy sector from 1979 to 2016 derived from ERA-Interim Available online: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/sis-european-energy-sector?tab=overview (accessed on Apr 29, 2021).

9. Klipp, S.; Eichel, K.; Billard, A.; Chalika, E.; Loranc, M.D.; Farrugia, B.; Jost, G.; Møller, M.; Munnelly, M.; Kallberg, V.P.; et al. European Demerit Point Systems : Overview of their main features and expert opinions. EU BestPoint-Project 2011, 1–237.

10. Ministerstvo dopravy Serie: Ročenka dopravy; Ročenka dopravy; Centrum dopravního výzkumu: Prague, Czech Republic;

11. Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur Verkehr in Zahlen 2003/2004; Hamburg, Germany, 2004; ISBN 3871542946.

12. Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur Verkehr in Zahlen 2018/2019. In Verkehrsdynamik; Flensburg, Germany, 2018 ISBN 9783000612947.

13. Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat Rijksjaarverslag 2018 a Infrastructuurfonds; The Hague, Netherlands, 2019; ISBN 0921-7371.

14. Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu Rijksjaarverslag 2014 a Infrastructuurfonds; The Hague, Netherlands, 2015; ISBN 0921- 7371.

15. Ministério da Economia e Transição Digital Base de Dados de Infraestruturas - GEE Available online: https://www.gee.gov.pt/pt/publicacoes/indicadores-e-estatisticas/base-de-dados-de-infraestruturas (accessed on Apr 29, 2021).

16. Ministerio de Fomento. Dirección General de Programación Económica y Presupuestos. Subdirección General de Estudios Económicos y Estadísticas Serie: Anuario estadístico; NIPO 161-13-171-0; Centro de Publicaciones. Secretaría General Técnica. Ministerio de Fomento: Madrid, Spain;

17. Trafikverket The Swedish Transport Administration Annual report: 2017; 2018; ISBN 978-91-7725-272-6.

18. Ministère de l’Équipement, du T. et de la M. Mémento de statistiques des transports 2003; Ministère de l’environnement de l’énergie et de la mer, 2005;

19. Ministero delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti Conto Nazionale delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti Anno 2000; Istituto Poligrafico e Zecca dello Stato: Roma, Italy, 2001;

20. Ministero delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti Conto nazionale dei trasporti 1999. 2000.

21. Generale, D.; Informativi, S. delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti Anno 2004.

22. Ministero delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti *Conto Nazionale delle Infrastrutture e dei

Air Crash: Number of Cases: Haryana data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 2022. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 2021. Air Crash: Number of Cases: Haryana data is updated yearly, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 2008 (Median) to 2022, with 15 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 2011 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 2022. Air Crash: Number of Cases: Haryana data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Crime Records Bureau. The data is categorized under India Premium Database’s Transportation, Post and Telecom Sector – Table IN.TA054: Aviation Statistics: Air Crash: Number of Cases.

This dataset is about book subjects and is filtered where the books is Will China's economy collapse?, featuring 10 columns including authors, average publication date, book publishers, book subject, and books. The preview is ordered by number of books (descending).

A growing body of literature scrutinizes the harmful consequences of capital flight to offshore financial destinations. While financial integration is a well-known facilitator of capital flight, we shed light on an under-appreciated determinant--the availability of an IMF bailout. Expanding on previous literature analyzing moral hazard in the context of IMF programs, we introduce a socially even more destructive mechanism that we label the `crash for cash' effect. We argue that by drawing on the IMF, elites can benefit from accumulating excessive debt to extract rents and hide these safely in offshore financial destinations while steering their countries into financial disaster. To test this mechanism, we show that elite wealth in offshore bank accounts has a first-order impact on a captured government's willingness to draw on a lender of last resort. From a policy perspective, our analysis underscores the importance of closing financial loopholes to mitigate the devastating socio-economic effects of sophisticated financial engineering in a financially integrated global economy.

This dataset is about books and is filtered where the book is The committee to destroy the world : inside the plot to unleash a super crash on the global economy, featuring 7 columns including author, BNB id, book, book publisher, and ISBN. The preview is ordered by publication date (descending).

Air Crash: Number of Persons Killed: Male: Jammu and Kashmir data was reported at 0.000 Person in 2022. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Person for 2021. Air Crash: Number of Persons Killed: Male: Jammu and Kashmir data is updated yearly, averaging 0.000 Person from Dec 2008 (Median) to 2022, with 15 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.000 Person in 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Person in 2022. Air Crash: Number of Persons Killed: Male: Jammu and Kashmir data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Crime Records Bureau. The data is categorized under India Premium Database’s Transportation, Post and Telecom Sector – Table IN.TA056: Aviation Statistics: Air Crash: Number of Persons Killed.

This dataset is about book subjects and is filtered where the books is The committee to destroy the world : inside the plot to unleash a super crash on the global economy. It has 10 columns such as authors, average publication date, book publishers, book subject, and books. The data is ordered by earliest publication date (descending).

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a...

The statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Japan from 1987 to 2023, with projections up until 2029. In 2023, the estimated gross domestic product per capita in Japan was around 33,898.99 U.S. dollars. For further information, see Japan's GDP. Japan's economy Japan is the world’s second largest developed economy and a member of the Group of Eight, also known as G8, which is comprised of the eight leading industrialized countries. Due to a weak financial sector, overregulation and a lack of demand, Japan suffered substantially from the early 1990s until 2000, a time referred to as ‘’The Lost Decade’’. Japan’s economy is still slowly recovering from the country’s asset price bubble collapse; however it continues to struggle to retain economic milestones achieved in the 1980s. Japan’s response to the crash was to stimulate the economy, which in turn resulted in extensive amounts of debt that further increased into the 21st century, most notably after the 2008 financial crisis. Despite maintaining a surprisingly low unemployment rate, demand within the country remains inadequate, primarily because Japanese residents spend a rather small fraction of the money they earned from the workplace. Lower demand often has a direct effect on production, with companies seeing not enough profits to continue production at such a high rate. Based on the consumer confidence index, Japanese households found that their quality of life, income growth, employment and propensity to durable goods was below satisfactory standards, perhaps due to these households still experiencing the effects of the 1990s bubble crash.