Stagflation (stagnation and inflation in one word) depicts a time period when an economy is not only suffering from a recession (declining GDP), but high unemployment and inflation rates as well. Usually unemployment and inflation are inversely related, which makes stagflation a rare occurrence. It first happened in the 1970s, when OPEC put an oil embargo on the United States, resulting in oil prices skyrocketing to three times the standard value at that time. As of September 2023, the price of oil fell by 20 percent in comparison to last year after having increased by 76 perent as a result of Russian invasion of Ukraine. The has been signs of stagflation in some countries through 2022 and 2023, but falling inflation rates indicate that the worst has been avoided.

The 1973-1975 recession marked the end of a remarkably prosperous period for developed economies. Apart from the United States, who experienced a brief recession in 1969-70, the other nations had enjoyed a period of uninterrupted growth in the 25 years leading up to this event. Japan in particular had the fastest growth of any major economy. This ended, however, following the 1973 oil crisis, which saw the member states of the OAPEC (Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) place an embargo on the nations who supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War, particularly the U.S., who supplied arms to Israel. As a result, oil prices quadrupled in some periods; the U.S. and most of its major economic partners then went into recession due to their dependency on oil imports. Additional factors exacerbated the effects of the recession in each country, such as the miners' strike in the United Kingdom, or Nixon's unstable economic policies in the early 1970s. It was not until 1976 when the major OECD economies would come out of their recession, although real GDP growth rates would not return to the consistent highs experienced in the 1950s and 1960s. Additionally, while GDP growth resumed within a few years, inflation rates and unemployment rates generally remained higher going into the 1980s.

The decades that followed the Second World War were among the most prosperous in modern history, and are referred to as the Golden Age of Capitalism in many countries. This period came to an end, however, with the 1973-1975 recession. Differences across the bloc Across the OECD member states, there was a significant drop in real GDP growth over the two decades, falling from an average of five percent annual growth in the 1960s to just 3.5 percent annually in most of the 1970s. Of all OECD countries shown here, Japan experienced the highest rate of real GDP growth in both decades, although it dropped from 11 to six percent between these years (Japan's real GDP growth was still higher in the 1970s than the other members' rates in the 1960s). Switzerland saw the largest relative decline over the two periods, with growth in the 1970s below one third of its growth rate in the 1960s. What caused the end of rapid growth? The Yom Kippur War between Israel and its Arab neighbors (primarily Egypt and Syria) resulted in the Arab oil-producing states placing an embargo on Israel's Western allies. This resulted in various energy and economic crises, compounded by other issues such as the end of the Bretton Woods financial system, which had far-reaching consequences for the OECD bloc. Additionally, the cost of agricultural goods and raw materials increased, and there was a very rare case of stagflation across most of the world's leading economies.

Abstract (en): This research focuses on the longer-term monetary relationships in historical data. Charts describing the 10-year average growth rates in the M2 monetary aggregate, nominal GDP, real GDP, and inflation are used to show that there is a consistent longer-term correlation between M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation but not between such nominal variables and real GDP growth. The data reveal extremely long cycles in monetary growth and inflation, the most recent of which was the strong upward trend in M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation during the 1960s and 1970s, and the strong downward trend since then. Data going back to the 19th century show that the most recent inflation/disinflation cycle is a repetition of earlier long monetary growth and inflation cycles in the United States historical record. Also discussed is a measure of bond market inflation credibility, defined as the difference between averages in long-term bond rates and real GDP growth. By this measure, inflation credibility hovered close to zero during the 1950s and early 1960s, but then rose to a peak of about 10 percent in the early 1980s. During the 1990s, the bond market has yet to restore the low inflation credibility that existed before inflation turned up during the 1960s. The conclusion is that the risks of starting another costly inflation/disinflation cycle could be avoided by monitoring monetary growth and maintaining a sufficiently tight policy to keep inflation low. An environment of credible price stability would allow the economy to function unfettered by inflationary distortions, which is all that can reasonably be expected of monetary policy, and is precisely what should be expected. (1) The file submitted is the data file 9811WD.DAT. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

Graph and download economic data for Inflation, consumer prices for the United States (FPCPITOTLZGUSA) from 1960 to 2024 about consumer, CPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Part I: Germany By means of a statistical analysis, this study examines the question whether there are long-term fluctuations in the course of the economic development in Germany, and if so, why they occur. On the grounds of a discussion about the hypothesises of lack of capital, overproduction and innovation, an explanatory model for the growth waves has been developed. This model, which is based on an empirical analysis, can be summarised as follows: The long-term development of the national product is mainly determined by the development of investments, which depend on the development of the profit expectations in their turn. In this respect, the development of wages, national consumption, and protection are considered important factors for the definition of long-term profit expectations. Hereby the above-mentioned model is empirically tested. Eventually some economic conclusions are drawn.

Part II: An International Comparison In the 1970s, the process of global economic growth weakened considerably as compared to the two preceding decades. This development provoked several explanatory attempts. Within the scope of an empiric study for Germany, the slowed growth of the 1970s has been understood as being the downswing phase of a long-term cycle of development. In doing so, the diagnosed development of the national product was mainly explained by long-term fluctuations of the (functional) distribution of income and the governmental activity, which, on their part, caused long-term ups and downs concerning investment activities due to their influence on profit expectations. In fact, the article faced harsh criticism, which was directed at both the explanatory approach and the under-lying empirical method. This study calculates the deviations of streamlined national product series from the long-term trend; its results show that there have been long-term, more or less distinct fluctuations in the development of the national product of several free-market countries other than Germany. According to the available data, different index numbers were applied to the respective national production. The period examined in this study for every country reaches as far back as data are available.

With regard to the results of the empirical analysis of the long-term economic development of Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Soviet Union, it can be stated that - long-term fluctuations of the economic development are not merely restricted to Germany, and that a socialistic economic system presumably does not guarantee a continuous growth either; - the cyclical pattern differs from country to country; - there were parallel developments at the international level; however, these do not develop in a synchronous way.

Factual classification of the tables in HISTAT: Part I: Germany Part I: 1. Macroeconomic indicators for the Federal Republic of Germany (1960-1990) Part I: A.1 Net national product and net investments in the Federal Republic of Germany (1850-1990) Part I:A.2 Net national product, net investments, foreign trade values and national consumption (in million D-marks) in Germany (1850-1990) Part I: A.3 Stock yields and profit expectations (in percent) in Germany (1926-1977) Part I: A.4 Actual earnings of employees and unemployment rate (in percent) in Germany (1925-1990) Part I: A.5 The population (in 1,000) in the Federal Republic of Germany and in the German Reich (1850-1913)

Part II: International comparison Part II: A.1.Macroeconomic annual production of selected states (1830-1979) Part II: A.2 Investments of selected states (1830-1979) Part II: A.3 Unemployment rate of selected states (in percent) (1887-1979)

Historical chart and dataset showing U.S. GDP by year from 1960 to 2023.

Building a major pipeline to carry stranded North Slope natural gas to market would boost the number of jobs and wealth in Alaska. But the impact would be muted compared to the economic upheaval from building the trans-Alaska oil pipeline 35 years ago. That's a key conclusion of a draft economic analysis,prepared by the gas line project developer and released Jan. 13, that forecasts how life in Alaska would change if the proposed $32 billion to $41 billion pipeline from the North Slope to Alberta gets built.

This Country Economic Memorandum was prepared as the basis for an economic dialogue with the new Government of Peru that assumed power on July 28, 1985. The report first presents a brief analysis of the main economic developments of the 1970s, followed by a somewhat more detailed review of economic conditions and policies during the period of the Belaunde Government (1980-1985). After identifying the main features of Peru's current economic situation, the report examines both the main short-term economic policy measures required to ensure a vigorous economic recovery and the long-term structural changes needed to foster higher long-term economic growth. Next, social issues and priorities are discussed. Projections for 1985-90 are then presented, in order to permit an assessment to be made of possible balance of payments constraints to renewed growth and the magnitude of the future burden of interest payments on the outstanding external debt. The last chapter updates the report to the end of October, 1985.

U.S. gdp growth rate for 2023 was 2.89%, a 0.38% increase from 2022.

<ul style='margin-top:20px;'>

<li>U.S. gdp growth rate for 2022 was <strong>2.51%</strong>, a <strong>3.54% decline</strong> from 2021.</li>
<li>U.S. gdp growth rate for 2021 was <strong>6.06%</strong>, a <strong>8.22% increase</strong> from 2020.</li>
<li>U.S. gdp growth rate for 2020 was <strong>-2.16%</strong>, a <strong>4.75% decline</strong> from 2019.</li>
</ul>Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.

ABSTRACT With the demise of development economics in the 1970s, the academic discipline of economics had little specific theorizing on development to offer practioners and proffered instead universal, liberal nostrums of free trade and free markets (Wing, 1990). These universal prescriptions evolved into the first catalogued Washington consensus in the 1980s on the urgency of market-oriented reforms in developing countries (Williamson, 1990). In the 1990s, a new connection formed between an emerging institutionalist subfield in economics and the next consensus in Washington after the first generation of market-oriented reforms. The opening of the third annual meetings of the International Society for New Institutional Economics (ISNIE) at World Bank headquarters in Washington, D.C. in September 1999 symbolized this new connection.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Between 1950 and 1980, the Mexican economy experienced rapid growth, which, nevertheless, ended abruptly in 1982. In 1994, Mexico became immersed in another sharp recession. This time the economy bounced back quickly from the previous recession. However many questions still remain: a) Why did economic growth take so long to recover from the 1982 debt crisis b) Why did the economic growth rate remain so far below the rates achieved in the 1960s and 1970s To address the questions, this memorandum focuses on productivity growth. The main recommendations of this report are that to promote faster total factor productivity growth, attention should be directed at the following areas: a) maintaining macroeconomic stability; b) reforming the legal underpinnings of the financial sector; c) improving the incentive structure in the labor market; d) strengthening the deregulation effort and domestic competition policies; and e) continuing the expansion of education attainment levels, taking advantage of the high returns yielded by investments in higher education.

The aim of the present study is to get insights of the postulated correlation between ‘basic innovations’ and ‘growth industry’ on the basis of the industrial net production’s growth rates of 50 industrial branches.
It is demonstrated, that the growth industries of the 1950s and 1960s are identical with those industries, which has been affected by significant basic innovations in the 1930s and 1940s (plastics processing, oil industry, aircraft construction, electrical engineering, chemical industry, and vehicle construction).
At the same time it is shown that the phenomenon of economic recession at the end of the 1970s coincides with the relative stagnation of these growth industries.

Following the published research results on the historical emergence of basic innovations by Gerhard Mensch in 1977 (see: Mensch, G., 1977: Das technologische Patt – Innovationen überwinden die Depression. Frankfurt/M.) the investigator Kleinknecht developed hypotheses and first examination steps for an innovation theoretical interpretation of longer trend periods of economic growth. The researcher Mensch showed, that basic innovations on particular time points become more frequent (by about 1830/40, by about 1885 and by about 1935). These time points emerged in a period, which was discussed in the literature as phase of weaker economic development. According to the innovation theorists these basic innovations would create new markets and growth industries (in the case of product innovations) and existing industries change radically (in the case of process innovations). Due to the diffusion of new products or production processes sectoral growth spurts may occur, which extend over several economic cycles and therefore enables stable economic growth. In periods of accelerated economic growth only few new basic innovations are enforceable and accordingly an insufficient amount of new growth industries occurs. The economy would experience a period of instable growth and increased crise-prone which follows after the end of the sectoral growth spurts. This period of technological stand-off can only be resolved by new impulses of basic innovations.

If this thesis carries a certain reality, it would be possible to show that during the periods of stronger economic growth these industries respectively emerge, which experienced weaker growth in past periods an which had been affected by basic innovations or which were developed by basic innovations. Drawing from an investment function, in which the development of industrial profit rates is defined as fundamental aspect of investments and growth, it would be possible to demonstrate, that basic innovations have a fundamental and positive effect on profit rates (return on capital) and its determinants. The hypotheses are tested using the example of the West German economy development between 1950 and 1977. The investigator Kleinknecht tied in with a casebook of basic innovations in the 1930s and 1940s, collected by Gerhard Mensch (1977). In his analysis Kleinknecht act on the assumption, that most of the basic innovations, which have been catched on after the strong economy crisis in 1929/32, principally developed their growth potential during the 1950s and the 1960s.

In the first step single cases of basic innovation has been allocated to those branches of industry, which has been concerned with the production of innovative products in a decisive way or which has integrated process innovations in their production. As categorization system the list of industrial groups and industrial sectors („Verzeichnis der Industriegruppen und –zweige“) was used, which has been also taken as a basis for the development of statistical indices series for 48 sectors of the processing industry and the mining industry by the German Institute of Economic Research (Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW, Berlin)). Kleinknecht refers in his work to these series of the DIW, when he analyzes the industrial production, the capital output ratio, etc. . For the analysis of the growth rates of 48 West German industrial sectors (manufacturing Industry and mining) the growth rates of the industrial net production at constant prices, calculated in the study of Krengel et al., were used and in the following calculated for the whole period of investigation and for subdivided time frames of the investigation period. The subdivided time frames corresponds the economic cycles between 1950 and 1977.

Datatables in the search- and downloadsystem HISTAT (Topic: Growth, Economic Cycles, and Crisis = Wachstum, Konjunktur und Krisen): Annotation: HISTAT is offered in German.

A. Identifikation der Wachstumsindustrien (Produktionszuwächse):

A.01a Durchschnittliche jährliche Zuwächse der industriellen Nettoproduktion nach Industriezweigen (1950-1973) A.01b Relative Beiträge der einzelnen Zweige zum Gesamtzuwachs der Industrieproduktion nach Industriezweigen (1950-1973) A.02 Zyklendurchschnittliche...

ABSTRACT This paper was written in 2003-04 and aims to investigate the two cycles of US economic expansion in the late of the 20th Century and the 2001 financial crisis. For this purpose, it starts an examination of the mutations of the capital since the 1970s. In the end, it analyzes the international context and the changes in the US hegemony nature at the beginnings of the 21st Century.

During the "Golden Age of Capitalism", from 1950 to 1973, GDP grew by annual averages of just under five percent in Western Europe*, four percent in the U.S., and ten percent in Japan. This period of prosperity came to an end with the recession of 1973-1975, however GDP growth rates did not return to their previous levels when the recession ended, as growth was fairly sporadic in the 1970s and then much slower throughout the 1980s. From 1973 to 1987, GDP grew annually at just two fifth of the Golden Age's rate in Europe and Japan, while the U.S.' annual rates were somewhat closer.

One major difference between the two given periods was that the U.S. was the dominant and most influential economy of all developed (non-communist) countries in the 1950s and 1960s, however, the 1970s and 1980s saw Japan and the European Communities (led by West Germany and France) emerge as major economic powers in their own right. While the U.S. remained the most powerful country in the world, other developed nations became more economically autonomous, and began asserting their own influence internationally.

Graph and download economic data for Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate (PCETRIM6M680SFRBDAL) from Jul 1977 to May 2025 about trimmed mean, average, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, rate, and USA.

This statistic shows the national debt of Greece from 2020 to 2023, with projections until 2030. In 2023, the national debt in Greece was around 420.4 billion U.S. dollars. In a ranking of debt to GDP per country, Greece is currently ranked third. Greece's struggle after the financial crisis Greece is a developed country in the EU and is highly dependent on its service sector as well as its tourism sector in order to gain profits. After going through a large economic boom from the 1950s to the 1970s as well as somewhat high GDP growth in the early to mid 2000s, Greece’s economy took a turn for the worse and struggled intensively, primarily due to the Great Recession, the Euro crisis as well as its own debt crisis. National debt within the country saw significant gains over the past decades, however roughly came to a halt due to financial rescue packages issued from the European Union in order to help Greece maintain and improve their economical situation. The nation’s continuous rise in debt has overwhelmed its estimated GDP over the years, which can be attributed to poor government execution and unnecessary spending. Large sums of financial aid were taken from major European banks to help balance out these government-induced failures and to potentially help refuel the economy to encourage more spending, which in turn would decrease the country’s continuously rising unemployment rate. Investors, consumers and workers alike are struggling to see a bright future in Greece, whose chances of an economic comeback are much lower than that of other struggling countries such as Portugal and Italy. However, Greece's financial situation might improve in the future, as it is estimated that at least its national debt will decrease - slowly, but steadily. Still, since its future participation in the European Union is in limbo as of now, these figures can only be estimates, not predictions.

The 2003 Santarem dataset consists of 8 interconnected datasets and 1 linking file. The primary unit of analysis is the rural property or lot. Each lot in the sample contains a minimum of 1 household with a mean of 1.33 households per lot in the final sample. Within households, data were collected on subsets of individuals as well as additional properties used by the households in the study. These 2003 Santarem data come from interviews with farm families in an agricultural zone south of the city of Santarem in the Brazilian state of Para. Santarem is a relatively old settlement within the Brazilian Amazon that has experienced waves of regional settlement in the 1930s, mid-century, and the 1970s. The study region is adjacent to the confluence of the Amazon and Tapajos Rivers and the northern terminus of the BR-163 (the Cuiaba-Santarem Highway). BR-163 links intensive agropastoral production (particularly mechanized soybean farming) in the state of Mato Grosso to Santarem, where the multinational corporation Cargill runs a deepwater port (opened in 2003) for loading soybeans onto oceangoing ships. The opening of this port has accelerated the process of urbanization and led to a transformation from a landscape of small family farming to a landscape of mechanized agriculture (description adapted from VanWey, Leah K., and Kara B. Cebulko, 2007, Journal of Marriage and the Family 69: 1257-1270). The discourse on deforestation has focused on the alarming rates of deforestation in the Amazon Basin to the neglect of the dynamic and reciprocal influences between the human population and the environment. Deforestation is a process mediated by human intervention, from the act of clearing to how such a clearing is used and managed over time. It would be helpful to know whether observable rates of forest removal represent a stage in the developmental cycle of households or represents the simple and direct impact of increasing population in these environments. From the point of view of theory and method, it is necessary to develop new approaches that effectively link demographic process to the interactive relationship of population to specific aspects of an environmental matrix. This project addressed multiple scales, from household dynamics to landscape dynamics and has developed methods by which to scale between them. We hypothesize that as households occupy frontier areas past the first generation, they move from a strategy of managing their land under the constraints of available household labor to a strategy that gives greater recognition of the constraints posed by land quality and of the risks to their farm operation coming from external socioeconomic forces and biophysical constraints. In the first generation, the labor available to a household is determined by the size of the household making the initial trip to the frontier (primarily young couples is common in frontier regions) and later by the fertility of these initial migrants. As these initial migrants age and their children enter adulthood (thereby becoming the second generation), labor supply is determined by the reproductive and land use choices of these children. Given the precipitous decline in female fertility, other factors gain salience in the second generation: the suitability of the land for various uses, the availability of off-farm employment and educational opportunities (both locally and those requiring migration), and macroeconomic factors affecting the economic viability of farming. These decisions then directly determine the entries into and exits from the household. This study investigated five basic questions: (1) Does the changing availability of household labor over the household life cycle affect the trajectory of deforestation and land use change in the same way for later generations of Amazonian farmers as for first generation in-migrants? (2) What are the determinants of changing household labor supply? Specifically, what are the biophysical and socioeconomic determinants of entries into and exits from the household through fertility, migration, and marriage? (3) How are the decisions of households regarding land use and labor allocation constrained by soil quality, access to water supplies, interannual drought events (e.g. El Nino type events), and other resource scarcities? (4) Are there notable differences in land use choices made by la