Due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, the Danish economy is expected to grow by one percent instead of the initially estimated 1.5 percent. By comparison, for Europe the forecast changed from a growth rate of 1.1 percent to only 0.8 percent.

The first case of COVID-19 in Denmark was confirmed on February 27, 2020. For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

This 6MB download is a zip file containing 5 pdf documents and 2 xlsx spreadsheets. Presentation on COVID-19 and the potential impacts on employment

May 2020Waka Kotahi wants to better understand the potential implications of the COVID-19 downturn on the land transport system, particularly the potential impacts on regional economies and communities.

To do this, in May 2020 Waka Kotahi commissioned Martin Jenkins and Infometrics to consider the potential impacts of COVID-19 on New Zealand’s economy and demographics, as these are two key drivers of transport demand. In addition to providing a scan of national and international COVID-19 trends, the research involved modelling the economic impacts of three of the Treasury’s COVID-19 scenarios, to a regional scale, to help us understand where the impacts might be greatest.

Waka Kotahi studied this modelling by comparing the percentage difference in employment forecasts from the Treasury’s three COVID-19 scenarios compared to the business as usual scenario.

The source tables from the modelling (Tables 1-40), and the percentage difference in employment forecasts (Tables 41-43), are available as spreadsheets.

Arataki - potential impacts of COVID-19 Final Report

Employment modelling - interactive dashboard

The modelling produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods – 2021, 2025 and 2031. In May 2020, the forecasts for 2021 carried greater certainty as they reflected the impacts of current events, such as border restrictions, reduction in international visitors and students etc. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts were less certain because of the potential for significant shifts in the socio-economic situation over the intervening years. While these later forecasts were useful in helping to understand the relative scale and duration of potential COVID-19 related impacts around the country, they needed to be treated with care recognising the higher levels of uncertainty.

The May 2020 research suggested that the ‘slow recovery scenario’ (Treasury’s scenario 5) was the most likely due to continuing high levels of uncertainty regarding global efforts to manage the pandemic (and the duration and scale of the resulting economic downturn).

The updates to Arataki V2 were framed around the ‘Slower Recovery Scenario’, as that scenario remained the most closely aligned with the unfolding impacts of COVID-19 in New Zealand and globally at that time.

Find out more about Arataki, our 10-year plan for the land transport system

May 2021The May 2021 update to employment modelling used to inform Arataki Version 2 is now available. Employment modelling dashboard - updated 2021Arataki used the May 2020 information to compare how various regions and industries might be impacted by COVID-19. Almost a year later, it is clear that New Zealand fared better than forecast in May 2020.Waka Kotahi therefore commissioned an update to the projections through a high-level review of:the original projections for 2020/21 against performancethe implications of the most recent global (eg International monetary fund world economic Outlook) and national economic forecasts (eg Treasury half year economic and fiscal update)The treasury updated its scenarios in its December half year fiscal and economic update (HYEFU) and these new scenarios have been used for the revised projections.Considerable uncertainty remains about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn, for example with regards to the duration of border restrictions, update of immunisation programmes. The updated analysis provides us with additional information regarding which sectors and parts of the country are likely to be most impacted. We continue to monitor the situation and keep up to date with other cross-Government scenario development and COVID-19 related work. The updated modelling has produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods - 2022, 2025, 2031.The 2022 forecasts carry greater certainty as they reflect the impacts of current events. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts are less certain because of the potential for significant shifts over that time.

Data reuse caveats: as per license.

Additionally, please read / use this data in conjunction with the Infometrics and Martin Jenkins reports, to understand the uncertainties and assumptions involved in modelling the potential impacts of COVID-19.

COVID-19’s effect on industry and regional economic outcomes for NZ Transport Agency [PDF 620 KB]

Data quality statement: while the modelling undertaken is high quality, it represents two point-in-time analyses undertaken during a period of considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty comes from several factors relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, including:

a lack of clarity about the size of the global downturn and how quickly the international economy might recover differing views about the ability of the New Zealand economy to bounce back from the significant job losses that are occurring and how much of a structural change in the economy is required the possibility of a further wave of COVID-19 cases within New Zealand that might require a return to Alert Levels 3 or 4.

While high levels of uncertainty remain around the scale of impacts from the pandemic, particularly in coming years, the modelling is useful in indicating the direction of travel and the relative scale of impacts in different parts of the country.

Data quality caveats: as noted above, there is considerable uncertainty about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn. Please treat the specific results of the modelling carefully, particularly in the forecasts to later years (2025, 2031), given the potential for significant shifts in New Zealand's socio-economic situation before then.

As such, please use the modelling results as a guide to the potential scale of the impacts of the downturn in different locations, rather than as a precise assessment of impacts over the coming decade.

The economy of the United Kingdom is expected to fall by ** percent in the second quarter of 2020, following the Coronavirus outbreak and closure of several businesses. According to the forecast the economy will bounce back in the third quarter of 2020, based on a scenario where the lockdown lasts for three months, with social distancing gradually phased out over a subsequent three-month period.

The economy of Sweden experienced a recession in 2020, following the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. According to a forecast from December 2022, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Sweden then increased by over five percent in 2021. However, growth was negative in 2023 as a result of the high inflation rates.

United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Florida data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Florida data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 729.000 Number in 21 Aug 2021 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Florida data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a situation in which people have to choose between economic and health values. This raises the question of what psychological mechanisms determine people’s willingness to bear economic costs to protect health? To answer this question, we examined whether such willingness is better described by compensatory or lexicographic models of decision making in situations involving risk or uncertainty. We compared decisions regarding COVID-19 and occupational diseases to establish a pandemic-independent baseline and to determine whether the mechanisms behind the trade-offs are the same in both cases. Additionally, we tested whether people’s willingness to accept economic costs is related to psychological factors such as fear, feeling of control, declared knowledge about the COVID-19 pandemic, predictions concerning the expected length of the pandemic, and perceived effectiveness of actions taken to fight the coronavirus. In total, 354 Polish participants from Prolific Academic took part in this study. The results were consistent with the view that decisions are made primarily to protect sacred values and are therefore not based on compensatory models. In line with this view, participants were sensitive neither to the risk vs. uncertainty manipulation nor to the perceived effectiveness of the lockdown. Instead, their behavior was congruent with lexicographic models in which the protection of health and in particular the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to be the most important dimension, and the single criterion to be used in decision making.

The growth of the Danish gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 was minus 2.1 percent. This is due to the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19). However, the GDP recovered in 2021, growing by almost five percent. Denmark's GDP was forecast to grow by two percent in 2024.

In the December 2022 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the median projection for four-quarter core PCE inflation in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 2.1 percent. This same SEP has unemployment rising by nine-tenths, to 4.6 percent, by the end of 2023. We assess the plausibility of this projection using a specific nonlinear model that embeds an empirically successful nonlinear Phillips curve specification into a structural model, identifying it via an underutilized data-dependent method. We model core PCE inflation using three components that align with those noted by Chair Powell in his December 14, 2022, press conference: housing, core goods, and core-services-less-housing. Our model projects that conditional on the SEP unemployment rate path and a rapid deceleration of core goods prices, core PCE inflation moderates to only 2.75 percent by the end of 2025: inflation will be higher for longer. A deep recession would be necessary to achieve the SEP’s projected inflation path. A simple reduced-form welfare analysis, which abstracts from any danger of inflation expectations becoming unanchored, suggests that such a recession would not be optimal.

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Wyoming data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Wyoming data is updated weekly, averaging 2.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 51.000 Number in 04 Jan 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Wyoming data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

The SPIN covid19 RMRIO dataset is a time series of MRIO tables covering years from 2016-2026 on a yearly basis. The dataset covers 163 sectors in 155 countries.

This repository includes data for years from 2016 to 2019 (hist scenario) and the corresponding labels.
Data for years 2020 to 2026 are stored in the corresponding repositories:

• covid: 10.5281/zenodo.5713825
• counterfactual: 10.5281/zenodo.5713839

Tables are generated using the SPIN method, based on the RMRIO tables for the year 2015, GDP, imports and exports data from the International Financial Statistics (IFS) and the World Economic Outlooks (WEO) of October 2019 and April 2021.

From 2020 to 2026, the dataset includes two diverging scenarios. The covid scenario is in line with April 2021 WEO's data and includes the macroeconomic effects of Covid 19. The counterfactual scenario is in line with October 2019 WEO's data and simulates the global economy without Covid 19. Tables from 2016 to 2019 are labelled as hist.

The Projections folder includes the generated tables for years from 2016 to 2019 (hist scenario) and the corresponding labels.
The Sources folder contains the data records from the IFS and WEO databases. The Method data contains the data files used to generate the tables with the SPIN method and the following Python scripts:

• SPIN_covid19_MRIO_files_preparation.py generates the data files from the source data.
• SPIN_covid19_RMRIO runs.py is the command to run the SPIN method and generate the dataset.
• figures.py is a script to produce figures reflecting the consistency of the projected tables and the evolution of macroeconomic figures in the 2016-2026 period for a selection of countries.

All tables are labelled in 2015 US$ and valued in basic prices.

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Maine data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Maine data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 54.000 Number in 06 Nov 2021 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Maine data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: California data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: California data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,277.000 Number in 06 Jan 2018 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: California data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in India slashed GDP growth forecasts for financial year 2021. Among the agencies that estimated growth, World Bank predicted a contraction of nearly *** percent, while the SBI (before the Maharashtra lockdown in April 2021) estimated a decline of ***** percent.

For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Fact and Figures page.

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: South Dakota data was reported at 600.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 600.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: South Dakota data is updated weekly, averaging 600.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 600.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 600.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: South Dakota data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Arkansas data was reported at 4,397.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 4,397.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Arkansas data is updated weekly, averaging 4,397.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4,397.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 4,397.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Arkansas data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 209.000 Number in 13 Jan 2018 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Colorado data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Colorado data is updated weekly, averaging 5.500 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 139.000 Number in 24 Dec 2022 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Colorado data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: North Carolina data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: North Carolina data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 174.000 Number in 19 Sep 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: North Carolina data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: West Virginia data was reported at 0.000 Number in 09 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 02 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: West Virginia data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 09 Oct 2021, with 248 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 103.000 Number in 06 Jan 2018 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 09 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: West Virginia data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, has had a significant impact on the global economy. In 2020, global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by *** percent, while the forecast initially was *** percent GDP growth. As the world's governments are working towards a fast economic recovery, the GDP increased again in 2021 by *** percent. Global GDP increased by over ***** percent in 2022, but it is still not clear to what extent Russia's war in Ukraine will impact the global economy. Global GDP growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2023.