By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

This data package includes the underlying data and files to replicate the calculations, charts, and tables presented in From Rapid Recovery to Slowdown: Why Recent Economic Growth in Latin America Has Been Slow, PIIE Policy Brief 15-6. If you use the data, please cite as: De Gregorio, José. (2015). From Rapid Recovery to Slowdown: Why Recent Economic Growth in Latin America Has Been Slow. PIIE Policy Brief 15-6. Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States contracted 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The Great Recession was a period of economic contraction which came in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. The recession was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent bankruptcies among Wall Street financial institutions, the most significant of which being the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. These economic convulsions caused consumer confidence, measured by the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), to drop sharply in 2007 and the beginning of 2008. How does the Consumer Confidence Index work? The CCI measures household's expectation of their future economic situation and, consequently, their likely future spending and savings decisions. A score of 100 in the index would indicate a neutral economic outlook, with consumers neither being optimistic nor pessimistic about the near future. Scores below 100 are then more pessimistic, while scores above 100 indicate optimism about the economy. Consumer confidence can have a self-fulfilling effect on the economy, as when consumers are pessimistic about the economy, they tend to save and postpone spending, contracting aggregate demand and causing the economy to slow down. Conversely, when consumers are optimistic and willing to spend, this can have a reinforcing effect as wages and employment may rise when consumers spend more. CCI and the Great Recession As the reality of the trouble which the U.S. financial sector was in set in over 2007, consumer confidence dropped sharply from being slightly positive, to being deeply pessimistic by the Summer of 2008. While confidence began to slowly rebound up until September 2008, with the panic caused by Lehman's bankruptcy and the freezing of new credit creation, the CCI plummeted once more, reaching its lowest point during the recession in February 2008. The U.S. government stepped in to prevent the bankruptcy of AIG in 2008, promising to do the same for any future possible failures in the financial system. This 'backstopping' policy, whereby the government assured that the economy would not be allowed to fall further into crisis, along with the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies used to restart the economy, contributed to a rebound in consumer confidence in 2009 and 2010. In spite of this, consumers still remained pessimistic about the economy.

The code and data in this replication package construct, partially, the analysis in the paper “Publishing Economics: How Slow? Why Slow? Is Slow Productive? How to Fix Slow?” by Hadavand, Hamermesh, and Wilson, forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Literature. There are multiple files for reproducing different findings in the paper. The replicator should expect the code to run for about a few seconds.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

US Economy to Slow in June as Fed Tightens Monetary Policy

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union, gross domestic products (GDP) decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, by 2021, growth rates were positive in all four areas again. The United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union all experiencing slow economic growth in 2023 amid high inflation, with Germany even seeing an economic recession. GDP and its components GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is composed of government spending, consumption, business investments and net exports. It is an important indicator to measure the economic strength of a country. Economists rely on a variety of factors when predicting future performance of the GDP. Inflation rate is one of the economic indicators providing insight into the future behavior of households, which make up a significant proportion of GDP. Projections are based on the past performance of such information. Future considerations Some factors can be more easily predicted than others. For example, projections of the annual inflation rate of the United States are easy to come by. However, the intensity and impact of something like Brexit is difficult to predict. Moreover, the occurrence and impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine is difficult to foresee. Hence, actual GDP growth may be higher or lower than the original estimates.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Despite impressive recent gains in income (now classified by the World Bank as a ``high income country''), and access to alternative heating systems, Chileans continue to have amongst the highest levels of per-capita wood consumption in the world, with serious attendant health and environmental implications. In this paper, we estimate the income elasticity of the use of firewood as a primary residential heating system in Chilean households. Our estimate accounts for the country’s climatic, geographic, and socio-demographic variation; controls for multiple levels of fixed-effects and covariates; and accounts for selection---as some households choose no heating systems whatsoever. We find that an increase of income of 10\% decreases the probability of firewood use by about one-tenth of a percentage point, a statistically significant but economically trivial effect. This result, consistent across various robustness checks, provides evidence for an extremely weak income-based energy transition in Chile. It implies that passive environmental policy, expecting a reduction of firewood use exclusively from income growth will fail. If the Chilean government’s aim is to lower the detrimental health and environmental outcomes associated with firewood use, they will have to adopt more aggressive approaches.

Besides the fourth consecutive year of double digit economic growth realized in 2007, data from 2005 to 2007 also showed a successive decline in the rate of economic growth in Cambodia from 13.3 percent in 2005 to 10.2 percent in 2007. Available data for the first nine months of 2008 and current local and global economic trends suggest that Cambodia's economic growth is likely to continue to slow significantly in 2008. Cambodia's two main economic growth-supporting industries, garments and construction, are continuing their downward trend in 2008. External factors, such as fears of a recession in the US and the anticipated end of safeguarding measures, which were imposed by the US and EU against Chinese exports, are adversely affecting the growth of Cambodia's garment industry. Residential construction growth is expected to slow to a negative rate in 2008 and spark bubble risks, given drops in prices expected for residential construction and land, and housing loan credit restrictions. In the meantime, the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Cambodia is continuing to increase steadily, but at a slightly slower pace because of the global economic slowdown as well as current dispute along Thai and Cambodian border. The financial sector is still booming. And, the agricultural sector remains strong thanks to optimal weather conditions and expanding markets for agro-products. Still, investment in agro-industry has remained slim in 2008. In combination with soaring prices for imported raw materials and consumer goods during the year, Cambodia is expected to enjoy only moderate economic growth of 7 percent in 2008, 3.2 percent-point lower than that of 2007. The downward trend is likely to carry over to 2009, when the economic growth rate is expected to slow to about 6 percent. The anticipated launch of a Cambodia Stock Exchange Market and exploitation of the extractive industries such as oil and gas continue to attract attention and draw big investors to Cambodia. Cambodia's economic growth could be speeded up if significant progress is made in critical reforms. These reforms, together with effective anti-corruption policies, would improve the economic and investment environment and potentially spur even higher economic growth.

The economy of the European Union is set to grow by *** percent in 2025, according to forecasts by the European Commission. This marks a significant slowdown compared to previous years, when the EU member states grew quickly in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. ***** is the country which is forecasted to grow the most in 2025, with an annual growth rate of *** percent. Many of Europe's largest economies, on the other hand, are set to experiencing slow growth or stagnation, with Germany, France, and Italy growing below *** percent.

In 2023, the gross domestic product in the European Union grew by 0.8 percent, as economic stagnation and high inflation caused by the Russia-Ukraine war impacted European economies. The European Commission forecasts that the European economy will have grown by 0.9 percent in 2024, continuing the trend registered in the previous year. This represents slow economic growth after the post-pandemic resurgence, yet avoids the recession many commentators warned the EU might slip into. Growth is forecast to increase again in 2025, climbing to 1.5 percent—a figure considered low by historical EU standards, excluding periods of economic crisis.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Taiwan expanded 6.64 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Taiwan GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The author argues that the economic benefits of low gasoline prices for the U.S. economy have fallen substantially since the reemergence of America as a major oil producer. The old rule-of thumb that a 10% fall in the oil price raises inflation-adjusted U.S. GDP by 0.2% is too large—the impact on economic activity should be closer to zero, and may even be negative if consumption grows slowly. The reasons for this change are straightforward, if underappreciated: (i) the value of oil production accounts for a larger share of the U.S. economy; and (ii) consumers are not spending the windfall like they used to because of higher debt levels, limited access to credit, slow wage rowth, and an older population.

In 2020, global gross domestic product declined by 6.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. In Latin America, overall GDP loss amounted to 8.5 percent.

Graph and download economic data for Vendor Performance, Percent Reporting Slower Deliveries for United States (M06006USM156NNBR) from Jan 1946 to Feb 1967 about performance, deliveries, supplies, percent, retail, and USA.

Executive summary - The Tokelau Government has been very vigilant in looking after its people. Tokelau people are very fortunate to have free access to basic services such as education and health. There are no extreme cases of poverty identified. The Health Programmes that have and are currently being implemented have resulted in Tokelau being free of major communicable diseases such as HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Dengue Fever. However, Tokelau is not exempt from incidences of non communicable diseases and faces the same global challenges regarding the main lifestyle diseases of hypertension, diabetes and obesity. These Health programmes also ensure that diseases are detected in their early stages and treated accordingly.

The global economic crisis and ongoing concerns about the negative effects of climate change can have serious impact on the future development of small island developing states (SIDS) like Tokelau. The global economy is forecast to grow at 3 percent on average per year, a rate below that of the last two decades (Global Economic Outlook 2012). The risk is when the economic slowdown affects the average growth of output per capita which means that people will struggle to maintain the current standard of living. On the environmental front decisions affecting climate change have to be swift and effective because of their undesirable effects in particular on low lying coral atolls such as Tokelau. The slowdown in the global economy will have an effect on the donor’s ability to assist developing countries.

Tokelau faces two main challenges: (i) strengthening and maintaining its partnerships with its development partners against a background of slow economic growth in donor countries themselves and; (ii) the sustainability of its environment against the serious threat of climate change.
Tokelau faces the threat of losing its nation if the strategies it employs today to preserve and sustain its environment are not correct or delayed in implementation. Coral erosion, sea and land pollution and changes in weather patterns all contribute to the future sustainability of their fragile environment. Tokelau will face food security issues and an increase in potential diseases if it fails to prioritize these issues immediately.

Tokelau will have to come up with ways to raise its revenue earning capacity or alternatively explore areas and avenues where they can reduce public expenditures whilst maintaining the required service delivery to its people. Tokelau’s effort to switch to renewable energy will cut down its reliance on imported fossil fuels especially diesel for electricity production.

View economic output, reported as the nominal value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, has had a significant impact on the global economy. In 2020, global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 3.4 percent, while the forecast initially was 2.9 percent GDP growth. As the world's governments are working towards a fast economic recovery, the GDP increased again in 2021 by 5.8 percent. Global GDP increased by over three percent in 2022, but it is still not clear to what extent Russia's war in Ukraine will impact the global economy. Global GDP growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2023.

Data on sources of slow growth in African economies, available as xls and dta files.