Despite a large and rapid increase in the policy rate since March 2022, economic activity has remained resilient. We argue that private-lending spreads—the difference between the policy rate and rates private-sector borrowers pay—are surprisingly low and a major factor for why rate hikes have not slowed the economy more. If spreads are as insensitive to rate cuts as they are to rate hikes, then they may dampen the effect of expansionary monetary policy.

In 2020, global gross domestic product declined by 6.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. In Latin America, overall GDP loss amounted to 8.5 percent.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 3.80 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Investment growth slowed from 2014 to 2016, a period when the overall economy was expanding. Using a statistical model, I find clear evidence that investment growth fluctuates between high and low growth regimes that usually correspond to expansions and recessions. However, during 2014–16, the investment sector experienced an isolated recession within an overall expansion, which is unusual by historical standards.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union, gross domestic products (GDP) decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, by 2021, growth rates were positive in all four areas again. The United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union all experiencing slow economic growth in 2023 amid high inflation, with Germany even seeing an economic recession. GDP and its components GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is composed of government spending, consumption, business investments and net exports. It is an important indicator to measure the economic strength of a country. Economists rely on a variety of factors when predicting the future performance of the GDP. Inflation rate is one of the economic indicators providing insight into the future behavior of households, which make up a significant proportion of GDP. Projections are based on the past performance of such information. Future considerations Some factors can be more easily predicted than others. For example, projections of the annual inflation rate of the United States are easy to come by. However, the intensity and impact of something like Brexit is difficult to predict. Moreover, the occurrence and impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine is difficult to foresee. Hence, actual GDP growth may be higher or lower than the original estimates.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

As the nation recovers from the pandemic-induced recession, finding workers to fill job openings has been a headwind for many regions and industries. Although many researchers have pointed to the sharp decline in labor force participation rates as an explanation, the role of population growth over time has received less attention. We examine state and national trends in these measures and show that slower population growth and an aging population may put downward pressure on labor force growth for some time.

Besides the fourth consecutive year of double digit economic growth realized in 2007, data from 2005 to 2007 also showed a successive decline in the rate of economic growth in Cambodia from 13.3 percent in 2005 to 10.2 percent in 2007. Available data for the first nine months of 2008 and current local and global economic trends suggest that Cambodia's economic growth is likely to continue to slow significantly in 2008. Cambodia's two main economic growth-supporting industries, garments and construction, are continuing their downward trend in 2008. External factors, such as fears of a recession in the US and the anticipated end of safeguarding measures, which were imposed by the US and EU against Chinese exports, are adversely affecting the growth of Cambodia's garment industry. Residential construction growth is expected to slow to a negative rate in 2008 and spark bubble risks, given drops in prices expected for residential construction and land, and housing loan credit restrictions. In the meantime, the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Cambodia is continuing to increase steadily, but at a slightly slower pace because of the global economic slowdown as well as current dispute along Thai and Cambodian border. The financial sector is still booming. And, the agricultural sector remains strong thanks to optimal weather conditions and expanding markets for agro-products. Still, investment in agro-industry has remained slim in 2008. In combination with soaring prices for imported raw materials and consumer goods during the year, Cambodia is expected to enjoy only moderate economic growth of 7 percent in 2008, 3.2 percent-point lower than that of 2007. The downward trend is likely to carry over to 2009, when the economic growth rate is expected to slow to about 6 percent. The anticipated launch of a Cambodia Stock Exchange Market and exploitation of the extractive industries such as oil and gas continue to attract attention and draw big investors to Cambodia. Cambodia's economic growth could be speeded up if significant progress is made in critical reforms. These reforms, together with effective anti-corruption policies, would improve the economic and investment environment and potentially spur even higher economic growth.

The Great Recession was a period of economic contraction which came in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. The recession was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent bankruptcies among Wall Street financial institutions, the most significant of which being the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. These economic convulsions caused consumer confidence, measured by the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), to drop sharply in 2007 and the beginning of 2008. How does the Consumer Confidence Index work? The CCI measures household's expectation of their future economic situation and, consequently, their likely future spending and savings decisions. A score of 100 in the index would indicate a neutral economic outlook, with consumers neither being optimistic nor pessimistic about the near future. Scores below 100 are then more pessimistic, while scores above 100 indicate optimism about the economy. Consumer confidence can have a self-fulfilling effect on the economy, as when consumers are pessimistic about the economy, they tend to save and postpone spending, contracting aggregate demand and causing the economy to slow down. Conversely, when consumers are optimistic and willing to spend, this can have a reinforcing effect as wages and employment may rise when consumers spend more. CCI and the Great Recession As the reality of the trouble which the U.S. financial sector was in set in over 2007, consumer confidence dropped sharply from being slightly positive, to being deeply pessimistic by the Summer of 2008. While confidence began to slowly rebound up until September 2008, with the panic caused by Lehman's bankruptcy and the freezing of new credit creation, the CCI plummeted once more, reaching its lowest point during the recession in February 2008. The U.S. government stepped in to prevent the bankruptcy of AIG in 2008, promising to do the same for any future possible failures in the financial system. This 'backstopping' policy, whereby the government assured that the economy would not be allowed to fall further into crisis, along with the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies used to restart the economy, contributed to a rebound in consumer confidence in 2009 and 2010. In spite of this, consumers still remained pessimistic about the economy.

This 6MB download is a zip file containing 5 pdf documents and 2 xlsx spreadsheets. Presentation on COVID-19 and the potential impacts on employment

May 2020Waka Kotahi wants to better understand the potential implications of the COVID-19 downturn on the land transport system, particularly the potential impacts on regional economies and communities.

To do this, in May 2020 Waka Kotahi commissioned Martin Jenkins and Infometrics to consider the potential impacts of COVID-19 on New Zealand’s economy and demographics, as these are two key drivers of transport demand. In addition to providing a scan of national and international COVID-19 trends, the research involved modelling the economic impacts of three of the Treasury’s COVID-19 scenarios, to a regional scale, to help us understand where the impacts might be greatest.

Waka Kotahi studied this modelling by comparing the percentage difference in employment forecasts from the Treasury’s three COVID-19 scenarios compared to the business as usual scenario.

The source tables from the modelling (Tables 1-40), and the percentage difference in employment forecasts (Tables 41-43), are available as spreadsheets.

Arataki - potential impacts of COVID-19 Final Report

Employment modelling - interactive dashboard

The modelling produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods – 2021, 2025 and 2031. In May 2020, the forecasts for 2021 carried greater certainty as they reflected the impacts of current events, such as border restrictions, reduction in international visitors and students etc. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts were less certain because of the potential for significant shifts in the socio-economic situation over the intervening years. While these later forecasts were useful in helping to understand the relative scale and duration of potential COVID-19 related impacts around the country, they needed to be treated with care recognising the higher levels of uncertainty.

The May 2020 research suggested that the ‘slow recovery scenario’ (Treasury’s scenario 5) was the most likely due to continuing high levels of uncertainty regarding global efforts to manage the pandemic (and the duration and scale of the resulting economic downturn).

The updates to Arataki V2 were framed around the ‘Slower Recovery Scenario’, as that scenario remained the most closely aligned with the unfolding impacts of COVID-19 in New Zealand and globally at that time.

Find out more about Arataki, our 10-year plan for the land transport system

May 2021The May 2021 update to employment modelling used to inform Arataki Version 2 is now available. Employment modelling dashboard - updated 2021Arataki used the May 2020 information to compare how various regions and industries might be impacted by COVID-19. Almost a year later, it is clear that New Zealand fared better than forecast in May 2020.Waka Kotahi therefore commissioned an update to the projections through a high-level review of:the original projections for 2020/21 against performancethe implications of the most recent global (eg International monetary fund world economic Outlook) and national economic forecasts (eg Treasury half year economic and fiscal update)The treasury updated its scenarios in its December half year fiscal and economic update (HYEFU) and these new scenarios have been used for the revised projections.Considerable uncertainty remains about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn, for example with regards to the duration of border restrictions, update of immunisation programmes. The updated analysis provides us with additional information regarding which sectors and parts of the country are likely to be most impacted. We continue to monitor the situation and keep up to date with other cross-Government scenario development and COVID-19 related work. The updated modelling has produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods - 2022, 2025, 2031.The 2022 forecasts carry greater certainty as they reflect the impacts of current events. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts are less certain because of the potential for significant shifts over that time.

Data reuse caveats: as per license.

Additionally, please read / use this data in conjunction with the Infometrics and Martin Jenkins reports, to understand the uncertainties and assumptions involved in modelling the potential impacts of COVID-19.

COVID-19’s effect on industry and regional economic outcomes for NZ Transport Agency [PDF 620 KB]

Data quality statement: while the modelling undertaken is high quality, it represents two point-in-time analyses undertaken during a period of considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty comes from several factors relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, including:

a lack of clarity about the size of the global downturn and how quickly the international economy might recover differing views about the ability of the New Zealand economy to bounce back from the significant job losses that are occurring and how much of a structural change in the economy is required the possibility of a further wave of COVID-19 cases within New Zealand that might require a return to Alert Levels 3 or 4.

While high levels of uncertainty remain around the scale of impacts from the pandemic, particularly in coming years, the modelling is useful in indicating the direction of travel and the relative scale of impacts in different parts of the country.

Data quality caveats: as noted above, there is considerable uncertainty about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn. Please treat the specific results of the modelling carefully, particularly in the forecasts to later years (2025, 2031), given the potential for significant shifts in New Zealand's socio-economic situation before then.

As such, please use the modelling results as a guide to the potential scale of the impacts of the downturn in different locations, rather than as a precise assessment of impacts over the coming decade.

Executive summary - The Tokelau Government has been very vigilant in looking after its people. Tokelau people are very fortunate to have free access to basic services such as education and health. There are no extreme cases of poverty identified. The Health Programmes that have and are currently being implemented have resulted in Tokelau being free of major communicable diseases such as HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Dengue Fever. However, Tokelau is not exempt from incidences of non communicable diseases and faces the same global challenges regarding the main lifestyle diseases of hypertension, diabetes and obesity. These Health programmes also ensure that diseases are detected in their early stages and treated accordingly.

The global economic crisis and ongoing concerns about the negative effects of climate change can have serious impact on the future development of small island developing states (SIDS) like Tokelau. The global economy is forecast to grow at 3 percent on average per year, a rate below that of the last two decades (Global Economic Outlook 2012). The risk is when the economic slowdown affects the average growth of output per capita which means that people will struggle to maintain the current standard of living. On the environmental front decisions affecting climate change have to be swift and effective because of their undesirable effects in particular on low lying coral atolls such as Tokelau. The slowdown in the global economy will have an effect on the donor’s ability to assist developing countries.

Tokelau faces two main challenges: (i) strengthening and maintaining its partnerships with its development partners against a background of slow economic growth in donor countries themselves and; (ii) the sustainability of its environment against the serious threat of climate change.
Tokelau faces the threat of losing its nation if the strategies it employs today to preserve and sustain its environment are not correct or delayed in implementation. Coral erosion, sea and land pollution and changes in weather patterns all contribute to the future sustainability of their fragile environment. Tokelau will face food security issues and an increase in potential diseases if it fails to prioritize these issues immediately.

Tokelau will have to come up with ways to raise its revenue earning capacity or alternatively explore areas and avenues where they can reduce public expenditures whilst maintaining the required service delivery to its people. Tokelau’s effort to switch to renewable energy will cut down its reliance on imported fossil fuels especially diesel for electricity production.

The author argues that the economic benefits of low gasoline prices for the U.S. economy have fallen substantially since the reemergence of America as a major oil producer. The old rule-of thumb that a 10% fall in the oil price raises inflation-adjusted U.S. GDP by 0.2% is too large—the impact on economic activity should be closer to zero, and may even be negative if consumption grows slowly. The reasons for this change are straightforward, if underappreciated: (i) the value of oil production accounts for a larger share of the U.S. economy; and (ii) consumers are not spending the windfall like they used to because of higher debt levels, limited access to credit, slow wage rowth, and an older population.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Taiwan expanded 1.31 percent in the third quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Taiwan GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of Finland was 273 billion euros in 2023, an increase of around 7.2 billion euros compared with the previous year. Finland's GDP showed an upward trend from the early 2000’s until 2009, when the economy was strongly hit by the global financial crisis. Thereafter, the Finnish economy stagnated, and the GDP slowly resumed its growth. However, after a three-year recession between 2012 and 2014, the GDP growth rates remained relatively weak. Slow recovery after the financial crisis As a small open economy, Finland was severely affected by the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. While all euro-countries fell into recession in the early stages of the crisis, the recovery of the Finnish economy has been tardy, remaining below the EU average. Finland’s GDP drop in 2009 was the worst since the ‘great depression’ of the early 1990’s, from which the Finnish economy recovered relatively fast because of the strong Nokia-led ICT industry. By 2009, the backbones of Finnish economy, forest and ICT industry, had started to encounter difficulties in foreign trade. This declining value of foreign trade coupled with weaker international business conditions resulted in economic stagnation. Challenging outlook According to economic forecasts, the Finnish economy is expected to experience a slow growth rate of the GDP in the upcoming years. In recent years, the economic growth has been stronger, although Finland is still catching up to other similar EU countries in productivity, household income, and employment rate. Traditionally, the country’s strengths have been high-level education and skilled workforce, openness to investments, as well as stable institutions. However, the population is ageing and the public debt has risen almost 30 percent between 2008 and 2019. The future outlook is further challenged by the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Twenty-nine economists met at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland this March to discuss the economy. Known as the Fourth District Economists Round Table, this meeting produced a rather subdued economic outlook, indicating that 1983 would be a year of relatively slow recovery. The median of 29 forecasts anticipated real gross national product (GNP) growth of 4.1 percent over the year (fourth quarter to fourth quarter), compared with an average 6 percent increase in the first year of the six previous postwar recoveries. The expected growth, however, will not be distributed evenly among sectors; some industries that are important to the Fourth District economy, such as capital goods and primary metals, will recuperate more slowly. The Round Table economists also expressed concern about the viability of the recovery beyond 1983. Monetary policy, interest rates, and inflation psychology are variables that add a great deal of uncertainty to the economic outlook. This Economic Commentary reviews the major factors shaping the Round Table's 1983 forecast, touching on some of the uncertainties for 1984 and beyond.

Dados dos casos estudados, contendo os itens de análise do instrumento. Em documento separado, as fotos tiradas durante as observações in loco são apresentadas.

Regression results of the regional digital economy in the improvement of total factor productivity.

The regression results of the digital economy index and its infrastructure sub-index, industry sub-index, and integration sub-index.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 2.10 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.