In 2024, there were approximately 1.9 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in El Salvador. Since 2015, when it stood at 103, the murder rate has been dropping annually in this Central American country. Crime current state The region has witnessed a substantial reduction in the number of homicides since 2015, resulting in the most common crimes becoming increasingly more centered on non-lethal offenses and material-related transgressions, which now pose the most prevalent threats. This shift is equally apparent across both genders, with the rate of femicides steadily declining, paralleling a consistent decrease in overall victimization rates. Consequently, El Salvador achieved the ranking of the third safest country within the Latin American homicide rate context. Notwithstanding these notable improvements, a lingering sense of caution endures among the populace, as nearly half of them remain apprehensive about the prospect of falling victim to criminal activities. Main economic problems Following an extended phase marked by elevated inflation, the region continues to grapple with challenges in its efforts to recover. The impact has been most pronounced on the prices of essential food items, rendering them increasingly unaffordable for a population where approximately 20 percent live under poverty conditions. Furthermore, the unemployment rate persists, with one out of every two individuals still seeking employment opportunities. A significant proportion, approximately 60 percent, remain apprehensive about job loss, recognizing the subsequent loss of their primary income source. In response, the government is envisaging an enhancement in both the employment rate and the GDP, albeit with a gradual recovery trajectory following the substantial downturn experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Historical dataset showing El Salvador murder/homicide rate per 100K population by year from 1994 to 2021.

Most violence in El Salvador has been attributed to gangs. After being one of the most violent societies worldwide, in 2023, the country’s homicide rate reached a low 2.4 per 100,000 population. The decline is the outcome of a security plan by government that has attacked gangs directly under a state of exception. Nearly 80,000 gang members have been incarcerated. For the past 30 years or so, Salvadoran authorities and politicians alike, have participated in negotiations with gangs to reduce violence and gain electoral support in exchange for benefits for their members. This research studies violence as the outcome from the activities by gangs, politicians and governments, their interactions, and communities intervening in the realization of these interactions. As most data required for explaining these processes is either inexistent or difficult to access, a hierarchical Bayesian model was implemented for the spatio-temporal evolution of homicide with random effects that account for omitted variables at the level of local areas and time periods. The results support the view that unobserved covariates related to the district patterns of homicide have evolved over time. Two cycles appear in the evolution of homicide over the period under study, one from 2003 through to 2012, and another starting in 2013 and still going on at the time of writing. This finding reinforces the view that timing of government-gang negotiations drove the behavior of homicide rates in El Salvador during 2002–2021 together with the growth and expansion of gangs as seen from clustering of high-risk districts over time. The incarceration of scores of members and collaborators has both incapacitated gangs as key producers of violence, and deterred other forms of crimes. As a next step, the government should build collective efficacy, in particular among disadvantaged communities, to restrain the formation of gang-like groups in the time to come.

Most violence in El Salvador has been attributed to gangs. After being one of the most violent societies worldwide, in 2023, the country’s homicide rate reached a low 2.4 per 100,000 population. The decline is the outcome of a security plan by government that has attacked gangs directly under a state of exception. Nearly 80,000 gang members have been incarcerated. For the past 30 years or so, Salvadoran authorities and politicians alike, have participated in negotiations with gangs to reduce violence and gain electoral support in exchange for benefits for their members. This research studies violence as the outcome from the activities by gangs, politicians and governments, their interactions, and communities intervening in the realization of these interactions. As most data required for explaining these processes is either inexistent or difficult to access, a hierarchical Bayesian model was implemented for the spatio-temporal evolution of homicide with random effects that account for omitted variables at the level of local areas and time periods. The results support the view that unobserved covariates related to the district patterns of homicide have evolved over time. Two cycles appear in the evolution of homicide over the period under study, one from 2003 through to 2012, and another starting in 2013 and still going on at the time of writing. This finding reinforces the view that timing of government-gang negotiations drove the behavior of homicide rates in El Salvador during 2002–2021 together with the growth and expansion of gangs as seen from clustering of high-risk districts over time. The incarceration of scores of members and collaborators has both incapacitated gangs as key producers of violence, and deterred other forms of crimes. As a next step, the government should build collective efficacy, in particular among disadvantaged communities, to restrain the formation of gang-like groups in the time to come.

Most violence in El Salvador has been attributed to gangs. After being one of the most violent societies worldwide, in 2023, the country’s homicide rate reached a low 2.4 per 100,000 population. The decline is the outcome of a security plan by government that has attacked gangs directly under a state of exception. Nearly 80,000 gang members have been incarcerated. For the past 30 years or so, Salvadoran authorities and politicians alike, have participated in negotiations with gangs to reduce violence and gain electoral support in exchange for benefits for their members. This research studies violence as the outcome from the activities by gangs, politicians and governments, their interactions, and communities intervening in the realization of these interactions. As most data required for explaining these processes is either inexistent or difficult to access, a hierarchical Bayesian model was implemented for the spatio-temporal evolution of homicide with random effects that account for omitted variables at the level of local areas and time periods. The results support the view that unobserved covariates related to the district patterns of homicide have evolved over time. Two cycles appear in the evolution of homicide over the period under study, one from 2003 through to 2012, and another starting in 2013 and still going on at the time of writing. This finding reinforces the view that timing of government-gang negotiations drove the behavior of homicide rates in El Salvador during 2002–2021 together with the growth and expansion of gangs as seen from clustering of high-risk districts over time. The incarceration of scores of members and collaborators has both incapacitated gangs as key producers of violence, and deterred other forms of crimes. As a next step, the government should build collective efficacy, in particular among disadvantaged communities, to restrain the formation of gang-like groups in the time to come.

Most violence in El Salvador has been attributed to gangs. After being one of the most violent societies worldwide, in 2023, the country’s homicide rate reached a low 2.4 per 100,000 population. The decline is the outcome of a security plan by government that has attacked gangs directly under a state of exception. Nearly 80,000 gang members have been incarcerated. For the past 30 years or so, Salvadoran authorities and politicians alike, have participated in negotiations with gangs to reduce violence and gain electoral support in exchange for benefits for their members. This research studies violence as the outcome from the activities by gangs, politicians and governments, their interactions, and communities intervening in the realization of these interactions. As most data required for explaining these processes is either inexistent or difficult to access, a hierarchical Bayesian model was implemented for the spatio-temporal evolution of homicide with random effects that account for omitted variables at the level of local areas and time periods. The results support the view that unobserved covariates related to the district patterns of homicide have evolved over time. Two cycles appear in the evolution of homicide over the period under study, one from 2003 through to 2012, and another starting in 2013 and still going on at the time of writing. This finding reinforces the view that timing of government-gang negotiations drove the behavior of homicide rates in El Salvador during 2002–2021 together with the growth and expansion of gangs as seen from clustering of high-risk districts over time. The incarceration of scores of members and collaborators has both incapacitated gangs as key producers of violence, and deterred other forms of crimes. As a next step, the government should build collective efficacy, in particular among disadvantaged communities, to restrain the formation of gang-like groups in the time to come.

The rate of civilians killed by police in the Venezuela is far higher than in comparable developed democratic countries, with 1,830 people killed by police per 10 million residents in 2025. This compares to 69 deaths per 10 million residents in Canada, and seven in Australia - perhaps the two most comparable countries to the United States in many respects. Country with the most prisoners The El Salvador is the country with the largest number of prisoners per capita. This suggests either that they have the most criminals, or that the police make more arrests and judges hand down jail as a more frequent punishment. Costa Rica has the highest burglary rate, seeing almost three times as many break-ins as in the United States, for example. Does weapon ownership contribute to higher number of violent attacks? Other factors may also be at play. One such factor may be gun ownership. If police shootings are more likely to happen in states with a higher number of registered weapons, one could argue that the threat of violence against police makes officers more likely to utilize deadly force. However, countries like Canada also have a high number of individual firearms licenses, indicating that this factor likely does not explain the entire effect. Social factors may also influence this statistic, such as the use of the death penalty. Still, each fatal incident is complex, and the full situation surrounding each involves many factors, meaning that a simple solution is unlikely.

S4_File_Observed and expected homicides, 2002–2021.

Posterior means, standard errors (SE), and 95% credible intervals (CI) for the fixed and random effects of the fitted model.