Based on a comparison of coronavirus deaths in 210 countries relative to their population, Peru had the most losses to COVID-19 up until July 13, 2022. As of the same date, the virus had infected over 557.8 million people worldwide, and the number of deaths had totaled more than 6.3 million. Note, however, that COVID-19 test rates can vary per country. Additionally, big differences show up between countries when combining the number of deaths against confirmed COVID-19 cases. The source seemingly does not differentiate between "the Wuhan strain" (2019-nCOV) of COVID-19, "the Kent mutation" (B.1.1.7) that appeared in the UK in late 2020, the 2021 Delta variant (B.1.617.2) from India or the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) from South Africa.

The difficulties of death figures

This table aims to provide a complete picture on the topic, but it very much relies on data that has become more difficult to compare. As the coronavirus pandemic developed across the world, countries already used different methods to count fatalities, and they sometimes changed them during the course of the pandemic. On April 16, for example, the Chinese city of Wuhan added a 50 percent increase in their death figures to account for community deaths. These deaths occurred outside of hospitals and went unaccounted for so far. The state of New York did something similar two days before, revising their figures with 3,700 new deaths as they started to include “assumed” coronavirus victims. The United Kingdom started counting deaths in care homes and private households on April 29, adjusting their number with about 5,000 new deaths (which were corrected lowered again by the same amount on August 18). This makes an already difficult comparison even more difficult. Belgium, for example, counts suspected coronavirus deaths in their figures, whereas other countries have not done that (yet). This means two things. First, it could have a big impact on both current as well as future figures. On April 16 already, UK health experts stated that if their numbers were corrected for community deaths like in Wuhan, the UK number would change from 205 to “above 300”. This is exactly what happened two weeks later. Second, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly which countries already have “revised” numbers (like Belgium, Wuhan or New York) and which ones do not. One work-around could be to look at (freely accessible) timelines that track the reported daily increase of deaths in certain countries. Several of these are available on our platform, such as for Belgium, Italy and Sweden. A sudden large increase might be an indicator that the domestic sources changed their methodology.

Where are these numbers coming from?

The numbers shown here were collected by Johns Hopkins University, a source that manually checks the data with domestic health authorities. For the majority of countries, this is from national authorities. In some cases, like China, the United States, Canada or Australia, city reports or other various state authorities were consulted. In this statistic, these separately reported numbers were put together. For more information or other freely accessible content, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

Total Covid deaths per million in the United Kingdom, March, 2023 The most recent value is 3128 total Covid deaths as of March 2023, an increase compared to the previous value of 3080 total Covid deaths. Historically, the average for the United Kingdom from March 2020 to March 2023 is 1926 total Covid deaths. The minimum of 47 total Covid deaths was recorded in March 2020, while the maximum of 3128 total Covid deaths was reached in March 2023. | TheGlobalEconomy.com

As of January 13, 2023, Bulgaria had the highest rate of COVID-19 deaths among its population in Europe at 548.6 deaths per 100,000 population. Hungary had recorded 496.4 deaths from COVID-19 per 100,000. Furthermore, Russia had the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Europe, at over 394 thousand.

Number of cases in Europe During the same period, across the whole of Europe, there have been over 270 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. France has been Europe's worst affected country with around 38.3 million cases, this translates to an incidence rate of approximately 58,945 cases per 100,000 population. Germany and Italy had approximately 37.6 million and 25.3 million cases respectively.

Current situation In March 2023, the rate of cases in Austria over the last seven days was 224 per 100,000 which was the highest in Europe. Luxembourg and Slovenia both followed with seven day rates of infections at 122 and 108 respectively.

Trends in Covid total deaths per million. The latest data for over 100 countries around the world.

COVID-19 rate of death, or the known deaths divided by confirmed cases, was over ten percent in Yemen, the only country that has 1,000 or more cases. This according to a calculation that combines coronavirus stats on both deaths and registered cases for 221 different countries. Note that death rates are not the same as the chance of dying from an infection or the number of deaths based on an at-risk population. By April 26, 2022, the virus had infected over 510.2 million people worldwide, and led to a loss of 6.2 million. The source seemingly does not differentiate between "the Wuhan strain" (2019-nCOV) of COVID-19, "the Kent mutation" (B.1.1.7) that appeared in the UK in late 2020, the 2021 Delta variant (B.1.617.2) from India or the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) from South Africa.

Where are these numbers coming from?

The numbers shown here were collected by Johns Hopkins University, a source that manually checks the data with domestic health authorities. For the majority of countries, this is from national authorities. In some cases, like China, the United States, Canada or Australia, city reports or other various state authorities were consulted. In this statistic, these separately reported numbers were put together. Note that Statista aims to also provide domestic source material for a more complete picture, and not to just look at one particular source. Examples are these statistics on the confirmed coronavirus cases in Russia or the COVID-19 cases in Italy, both of which are from domestic sources. For more information or other freely accessible content, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

A word on the flaws of numbers like this

People are right to ask whether these numbers are at all representative or not for several reasons. First, countries worldwide decide differently on who gets tested for the virus, meaning that comparing case numbers or death rates could to some extent be misleading. Germany, for example, started testing relatively early once the country’s first case was confirmed in Bavaria in January 2020, whereas Italy tests for the coronavirus postmortem. Second, not all people go to see (or can see, due to testing capacity) a doctor when they have mild symptoms. Countries like Norway and the Netherlands, for example, recommend people with non-severe symptoms to just stay at home. This means not all cases are known all the time, which could significantly alter the death rate as it is presented here. Third and finally, numbers like this change very frequently depending on how the pandemic spreads or the national healthcare capacity. It is therefore recommended to look at other (freely accessible) content that dives more into specifics, such as the coronavirus testing capacity in India or the number of hospital beds in the UK. Only with additional pieces of information can you get the full picture, something that this statistic in its current state simply cannot provide.

There were 11,480 deaths registered in England and Wales for the week ending November 14, 2025, compared with 11,297 in the previous week. During this time period, the two weeks with the highest number of weekly deaths were in April 2020, with the week ending April 17, 2020, having 22,351 deaths, and the following week 21,997 deaths, a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. Death and life expectancy As of 2022, the life expectancy for women in the UK was just over 82.5 years, and almost 78.6 years for men. Compared with 1765, when average life expectancy was under 39 years, this is a huge improvement in historical terms. Even in the more recent past, life expectancy was less than 47 years at the start of the 20th Century, and was under 70 as recently as the 1950s. Despite these significant developments in the long-term, improvements in life expectancy stalled between 2009/11 and 2015/17, and have even gone into decline since 2020. Between 2020 and 2022, for example, life expectancy at birth fell by 23 weeks for females, and 37 weeks for males. COVID-19 in the UK The first cases of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom were recorded on January 31, 2020, but it was not until a month later that cases began to rise exponentially. By March 5 of this year there were more than 100 cases, rising to 1,000 days later and passing 10,000 cumulative cases by March 26. At the height of the pandemic in late April and early May, there were around six thousand new cases being recorded daily. As of January 2023, there were more than 24.2 million confirmed cumulative cases of COVID-19 recorded in the United Kingdom, resulting in 202,156 deaths.

Age-standardised mortality rates for deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19), non-COVID-19 deaths and all deaths by vaccination status, broken down by age group.

As of January 13, 2023, there had been over 270 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 across the whole of Europe since the first confirmed case in January, 2020. Cyprus has the highest incidence of COVID-19 cases among its population in Europe at 71,853 per 100,000 people, followed by a rate of 64,449 in Austria. Slovenia has recorded the third highest rate of cases in Europe at 62,834 cases per 100,000. With almost 38.3 million confirmed cases, France has been the worst affected country in Europe, which translates into a rate of 58,945 cases per 100,000 population.

Current infection rate in Europe San Marino had the highest rate of cases per 100,000 in the past week at 336, as of January 16, 2023. Cyprus and Slovenia had seven day rates of infections at 278 and 181 respectively.

Coronavirus deaths in Europe There have been 2,169,191 recorded COVID-19 deaths in Europe since the beginning of the pandemic. Russia has the highest number of deaths recorded in a European country at over 394 thousand. Bulgaria has the highest death rate from the virus in Europe with approximately 549 deaths per 100,000 as of January 13, followed by Hungary with 496 deaths per 100,000. For further information about the coronavirus pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

"COVID-19 mortality correlation with cloudiness, sunlight, latitude in European countries"

Dataset for preprint titled "COVID-19 mortality: positive correlation with cloudiness but no correlation with sunlight and latitude in Europe" https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250658

by SECIL OMER, ADRIAN IFTIME, VICTOR BURCEA

Corresponding author: A. Iftime, University of Medicine and Pharmacy "Carol Davila", Biophysics Department, 8 Blvd. Eroii Sanitari, 050474 Bucharest, Romania. Email address: adrian.iftime [at] umfcd.ro.

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Dataset file: 2.0.0.COVID-19_Mortality_Cloudiness_Insolation_EUROPE_March_December_2020.csv

Dataset graphical preview: 2.0.0.INFOGRAPHIC_CloudFraction_vs_COVID-19_mortality_Europe_March-December_2020.png

DATASET: 444 rows (records), with the following fields:

"Country" : Country name; 37 European countries included.

"Date": Date stamp at the collection time. Data collection was performed in the last day of every month. Date format: YYYY-MM-DD

"Month_Key" : Date stamp at the collection time, formatted for easier monthly time series analysis. Date format: YYYY-MM

"Month_Fct2020" Date stamp at the collection time,formatted for easier graphing, as a string with names of the months (in English).

"Deaths_per_1Mpop" : Monthly mortality from COVID-19 raported in the country, reported as number of COVID-19 deaths per 1 million population of the country, in that particular month / country. NB: it is reported as million population, not patients.

"LogDeaths_per_1Mpop" : Log10 transformation of "Deaths_per_1Mpop"

"Insolation_Average" : Insolation average (solar irradiance at ground level), in that particular month / country. It is expressed in Watt / square meter of the ground surface. Data derived from data avaialble at NASA Langley Research Center, NASA’s Earth Observatory, CERES / FLASHFlux team, 2020, https://neo.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=CERES_INSOL_M (old link: https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=CERES_INSOL_M )

"Cloud_Fraction" : Cloudiness (also known as cloud fraction, cloud cover, cloud amount or sky cover), as decimal fraction of the sky obscured by clouds, in that particular month / country. Data derived from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA’s Earth Observatory, MODIS Atmosphere Science Team, 2020, https://neo.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=MODAL2_M_CLD_FR (old link: https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=MODAL2_M_CLD_FR )

"CENTR_latitude" and "CENTR_longitude" : Latitude and Longitude of the country centroid, for each country. Data derived from Google LLC, "Dataset publishing language: country centroids", https://developers.google.com/public-data/docs/canonical/countries_csv
NOTE: This is identical in every month (obviuously); it is redundantly included for easier monthly sectional analysis of the data.

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Versioning of the dataset: MAJOR: changes yearly; 1 = 2020 MINOR: changes if new monthly data is added in that particular year. PATCH: Changes only if errors or minor edits were performed.

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CHANGELOG:

Version 2.0.0.COVID-19_Mortality_Cloudiness_Insolation_EUROPE_March_December_2020.csv - CERES/FLASHFLUX data for August-December 2020 became available at new links at nasa.gov - These data were gathered, analyzed and introduced in this dataset (2.0.0). - updated links for CERES/FLASHFLUX and MODIS dataset - added DOI link for preprint - minor edits on text. -Dataset file source for this version (internal analysis source file): db_covid_all-ANALYSIS.2020-all-year_versiunea18d.csv

Version 1.0.0.COVID-19_Mortality_Cloudiness_Insolation_EUROPE_March_August_2020.csv First version Dataset file source for this version (internal analysis source file): db_covid_all-ANALYSIS.2020-09-22_r10.csv

As of July 7, 2022, there have been 2,030,370 deaths across the whole of Europe due to COVID-19 since the first recorded European death in France and Spain on February 15, 2020. The United Kingdom currently has the highest number of deaths in Western Europe, and has recorded 180,718 coronavirus deaths as of July 7. In Italy, there have been 168,770 confirmed deaths as a result of COVID-19.

The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Europe was approximately 218.7 million as of June 12, 2022, with France being the worst affected country at over 29.9 million cases. For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

OMOP dataset: Hospital COVID patients: severity, acuity, therapies, outcomes Dataset number 2.0

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in January 2020. Currently, there have been more than 6 million cases & more than 1.5 million deaths worldwide. Some individuals experience severe manifestations of infection, including viral pneumonia, adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) & death. There is a pressing need for tools to stratify patients, to identify those at greatest risk. Acuity scores are composite scores which help identify patients who are more unwell to support & prioritise clinical care. There are no validated acuity scores for COVID-19 & it is unclear whether standard tools are accurate enough to provide this support. This secondary care COVID OMOP dataset contains granular demographic, morbidity, serial acuity and outcome data to inform risk prediction tools in COVID-19.

PIONEER geography The West Midlands (WM) has a population of 5.9 million & includes a diverse ethnic & socio-economic mix. There is a higher than average percentage of minority ethnic groups. WM has a large number of elderly residents but is the youngest population in the UK. Each day >100,000 people are treated in hospital, see their GP or are cared for by the NHS. The West Midlands was one of the hardest hit regions for COVID admissions in both wave 1 & 2.

EHR. University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (UHB) is one of the largest NHS Trusts in England, providing direct acute services & specialist care across four hospital sites, with 2.2 million patient episodes per year, 2750 beds & 100 ITU beds. UHB runs a fully electronic healthcare record (EHR) (PICS; Birmingham Systems), a shared primary & secondary care record (Your Care Connected) & a patient portal “My Health”. UHB has cared for >5000 COVID admissions to date. This is a subset of data in OMOP format.

Scope: All COVID swab confirmed hospitalised patients to UHB from January – August 2020. The dataset includes highly granular patient demographics & co-morbidities taken from ICD-10 & SNOMED-CT codes. Serial, structured data pertaining to care process (timings, staff grades, specialty review, wards), presenting complaint, acuity, all physiology readings (pulse, blood pressure, respiratory rate, oxygen saturations), all blood results, microbiology, all prescribed & administered treatments (fluids, antibiotics, inotropes, vasopressors, organ support), all outcomes.

Available supplementary data: Health data preceding & following admission event. Matched “non-COVID” controls; ambulance, 111, 999 data, synthetic data. Further OMOP data available as an additional service.

Available supplementary support: Analytics, Model build, validation & refinement; A.I.; Data partner support for ETL (extract, transform & load) process, Clinical expertise, Patient & end-user access, Purchaser access, Regulatory requirements, Data-driven trials, “fast screen” services.

In early-February 2020, the first cases of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (UK) were confirmed. The number of cases in the UK increased significantly at the end of 2021. On January 13, 2023, the number of confirmed cases in the UK amounted to 24,243,393. COVID deaths among highest in Europe There were 202,157 confirmed coronavirus deaths in the UK as of January 13, 2023. For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

Current infection rate in Europe The current infection rate in the UK was 50 cases per 100,000 population in the last seven days as of January 16. San Marino had the highest seven day rate of infections in Europe at 336.

PIONEER: Deeply-phenotyped hospital COVID patients: severity, acuity, therapies, outcomes Dataset number 4.0

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in January 2020. Currently, there have been more than 6 million cases& more than 1.5 million deaths worldwide. Some individuals experience severe manifestations of infection, including viral pneumonia, adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)& death. There is a pressing need for tools to stratify patients, to identify those at greatest risk. Acuity scores are composite scores which help identify patients who are more unwell to support & prioritise clinical care. There are no validated acuity scores for COVID-19 & it is unclear whether standard tools are accurate enough to provide this support. This secondary care COVID dataset contains granular demographic, morbidity, serial acuity and outcome data to inform risk prediction tools in COVID-19.

PIONEER geography The West Midlands (WM) has a population of 5.9 million & includes a diverse ethnic & socio-economic mix. There is a higher than average percentage of minority ethnic groups. WM has a large number of elderly residents but is the youngest population in the UK. Each day >100,000 people are treated in hospital, see their GP or are cared for by the NHS. The West Midlands was one of the hardest hit regions for COVID admissions in both wave 1 & 2.

EHR. University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (UHB) is one of the largest NHS Trusts in England, providing direct acute services & specialist care across four hospital sites, with 2.2 million patient episodes per year, 2750 beds & 100 ITU beds. UHB runs a fully electronic healthcare record (EHR) (PICS; Birmingham Systems), a shared primary & secondary care record (Your Care Connected) & a patient portal “My Health”. UHB has cared for >5000 COVID admissions to date.

Scope: All COVID swab confirmed hospitalised patients to UHB from January – May 2020. The dataset includes highly granular patient demographics & co-morbidities taken from ICD-10 & SNOMED-CT codes but also primary care records& clinic letters. Serial, structured data pertaining to care process (timings, staff grades, specialty review, wards), presenting complaint, acuity, all physiology readings (pulse, blood pressure, respiratory rate, oxygen saturations), all blood results, microbiology, all prescribed & administered treatments (fluids, antibiotics, inotropes, vasopressors, organ support), all outcomes. Linked images available (radiographs, CT, MRI, ultrasound).

Available supplementary data: Health data preceding & following admission event. Matched “non-COVID” controls; ambulance, 111, 999 data, synthetic data.

Available supplementary support: Analytics, Model build, validation & refinement; A.I.; Data partner support for ETL (extract, transform & load) process, Clinical expertise, Patient & end-user access, Purchaser access, Regulatory requirements, Data-driven trials, “fast screen” services.

As of May 2, 2023, there were roughly 687 million global cases of COVID-19. Around 660 million people had recovered from the disease, while there had been almost 6.87 million deaths. The United States, India, and Brazil have been among the countries hardest hit by the pandemic.

The various types of human coronavirus The SARS-CoV-2 virus is the seventh known coronavirus to infect humans. Its emergence makes it the third in recent years to cause widespread infectious disease following the viruses responsible for SARS and MERS. A continual problem is that viruses naturally mutate as they attempt to survive. Notable new variants of SARS-CoV-2 were first identified in the UK, South Africa, and Brazil. Variants are of particular interest because they are associated with increased transmission.

Vaccination campaigns Common human coronaviruses typically cause mild symptoms such as a cough or a cold, but the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has led to more severe respiratory illnesses and deaths worldwide. Several COVID-19 vaccines have now been approved and are being used around the world.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in January 2020. Currently, there have been more than 125 million cases, and more than 2.7 million deaths worldwide. Some individuals experience severe manifestations of infection, including viral pneumonitis, adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and death. Many patients required ventilatory support including high flow oxygen, continuous positive airway pressure and intubated with or without tracheotomy. There was considerable learning on how to manage COVID-19 during the pandemic and new drugs became available during the different waves. This secondary care COVID dataset contains granular ventilatory, demographic, morbidity, serial acuity, medications and outcome data in COVID-19 across all waves and will be continuously refreshed.

PIONEER geography: The West Midlands (WM) has a population of 5.9 million and includes a diverse ethnic and socio-economic mix. There is a higher than average percentage of minority ethnic groups. WM has a large number of elderly residents but is the youngest population in the UK. Each day, more than 100,000 people are treated in hospital, see their GP or are cared for by the NHS. The West Midlands was one of the hardest hit regions for COVID admissions across all waves.

Electronic Health Records (EHR): University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (UHB) is one of the largest NHS Trusts in England, providing direct acute services and specialist care across four hospital sites, with 2.2 million patient episodes per year, 2750 beds and 100 ITU beds. ITU capacity increased to 250 beds during the COVID pandemic. UHB runs a fully electronic healthcare record (EHR) (PICS; Birmingham Systems), a shared primary and secondary care record (Your Care Connected) and a patient portal “My Health”. UHB has cared for more than 10,000 COVID admissions to date.

Scope: All COVID swab confirmed hospitalised patients to UHB from January 2020 to the current date. The dataset includes highly granular patient demographics and co-morbidities taken from ICD-10 and SNOMED-CT codes. Serial, structured data pertaining to care process (timings, staff grades, specialty review, wards), severity, ventilatory requirements, acuity, all physiology readings (pulse, blood pressure, respiratory rate, oxygen saturations), all blood results, microbiology, all prescribed and administered treatments (fluids, antibiotics, inotropes, vasopressors, organ support, dexamethasone, remdesivir, tocilizumab), all outcomes.

Available supplementary data: Ambulance, 111, 999 data, synthetic data.

Available supplementary support: Analytics, Model build, validation and refinement; A.I.; Data partner support for ETL (extract, transform and load) process, Clinical expertise, Patient and end-user access, Purchaser access, Regulatory requirements, Data-driven trials, “fast screen” services.

Adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval from multivariable logistic regression model with GEE for the outcome COVID-19 mortality for only hospitalized patients.

Summary of demographics, COVID-19 status, and comorbidity variables of all COVID-19 patients from January 29, 2020–August 16, 2021 in Mexico.

Introduction The 2023 mid-year estimate (MYE) is the current official estimate of the population for local authorities in England and Wales. Estimates are produced annually by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the 2023 MYE was published on 15 July 2024. Comparison to previous MYE data The previous MYE series (for the period 2012-2020) starts with the 2011 census estimate. Each subsequent year’s population is calculated by adding estimates of births, deaths and migration to the previous year’s population. The 2021 MYE represents a break in this series as it uses the 2021 census as its base. The ONS revised the 2012-2020 MYE series to bring it in line with the 2021 MYE, so that comparisons could be made between between this series and the previous series. The values plotted on the chart are the revised values of the previously published estimates for 2011 to 2022, together with the estimates for 2023. Key Points London’s mid-2023 population was 8.945 million London’s population increased by 76,300 persons compared to the previous mid-year value Components of change were as follows: 105,100 births and 53,500 deaths (natural change of 51,600) Net domestic migration was an outflow of 129,200 Net international migration was an inflow of 154,100 Population Change London’s 2023 population was 8,945,310. The first chart below shows the 2023 MYE in the context of previous estimates. There is an uptick after a temporary decrease in population which we attribute to the COVID-19 pandemic. Components of Change Births, deaths and migration form the components of population change. The 2023 MYE value for births was 4% lower than that in 2022, and for deaths 3% higher. The consequent value for natural change (births - deaths) was 10% lower than in 2022. At -129,000, the value for domestic migration (migration within the UK) was nearly 3% higher than the 2022 value, so still significantly lower than the peak net outflow during the COVID-19 pandemic of -186,000. An outflow of domestic migrants from London is normal and this has been the case each year for the last two decades. This flow is partly because many international in-migrants initially settle in London before moving out to other parts of the UK. The second move in this sequence is counted as a domestic migration. There has been a marked change in immigration since 2021. This can be attributed to the end of free movement for EU nationals, easing of travel restrictions following the COVID 19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. At over 150,000, the 2023 MYE value for London’s net international migration was more than 18% higher than 2022, and represents a considerable increase from 78,000 in 2021. Age structure of the population Future Updates The release of the next mid-year estimates is expected in July 2025. The full ONS mid-year population estimates release and back series can be found on the ONS website: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates. For information relating to London’s population see the demography pages of the London Datastore: https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/ or email demography@london.gov.uk. An in-depth review of the available evidence for population change in London since the start of the coronavirus pandemic has been produced by GLA Demography: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/population-change-in-london-during-the-pandemic.

BackgroundPredicting the future UK COVID-19 epidemic provides a baseline of a vaccine-only mitigation policy from which to judge the effects of additional public health interventions. A previous 12-month prediction of the size of the epidemic to October 2022 underestimated its sequelae by a fifth. This analysis seeks to explain the reasons for the underestimation before offering new long-term predictions.MethodsA Dynamic Causal Model was used to identify changes in COVID-19 transmissibility and the public's behavioral response in the 12-months to October 2022. The model was then used to predict the future trends in infections, long-COVID, hospital admissions and deaths over 12-months to October 2023.FindingsThe model estimated that the secondary attack rate increased from 0.4 to 0.5, the latent period shortened from 2.7 to 2.6 and the incubation period shortened from 2.0 to 1.95 days between October 2021 and October 2022. During this time the model also estimated that antibody immunity waned from 177 to 160 days and T-cell immunity from 205 to 180 days. This increase in transmissibility was associated with a reduction in pathogenicity with the proportion of infections developing acute respiratory distress syndrome falling for 6–2% in the same twelve-month period. Despite the wave of infections, the public response was to increase the tendency to expose themselves to a high-risk environment (e.g., leaving home) each day from 33–58% in the same period.The predictions for October 2023 indicate a wave of infections three times larger this coming year than last year with significant health and economic consequences such as 120,000 additional COVID-19 related deaths, 800,000 additional hospital admissions and 3.5 million people suffering acute-post-COVID-19 syndrome lasting more than 12 weeks.InterpretationThe increase in transmissibility together with the public's response provide plausible explanations for why the model underestimated the 12-month predictions to October 2022. The 2023 projection could well-underestimate the predicted substantial next wave of COVID-19 infection. Vaccination alone will not control the epidemic. The UK COVID-19 epidemic is not over. The results call for investment in precautionary public health interventions.

PIONEER: The impact of ethnicity and multi-morbidity on COVID-related outcomes; a primary care supplemented hospitalised dataset Dataset number 3.0

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in January 2020. Currently, there have been more than 65million cases and more than 1.5 million deaths worldwide. Some individuals experience severe manifestations of infection, including viral pneumonia, adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and death. Evidence suggests that older patients, those from some ethnic minority groups and those with multiple long-term health conditions have worse outcomes. This secondary care COVID dataset contains granular demographic and morbidity data, supplemented from primary care records, to add to the understanding of patient factors on disease outcomes.

PIONEER geography The West Midlands (WM) has a population of 5.9 million & includes a diverse ethnic & socio-economic mix. There is a higher than average percentage of minority ethnic groups. WM has a large number of elderly residents but is the youngest population in the UK. Each day >100,000 people are treated in hospital, see their GP or are cared for by the NHS. The West Midlands was one of the hardest hit regions for COVID admissions in both wave 1 and 2.

EHR. University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (UHB) is one of the largest NHS Trusts in England, providing direct acute services & specialist care across four hospital sites, with 2.2 million patient episodes per year, 2750 beds & 100 ITU beds. UHB runs a fully electronic healthcare record (EHR) (PICS; Birmingham Systems), a shared primary & secondary care record (Your Care Connected) & a patient portal “My Health”. UHB has cared for >5000 COVID admissions to date.

Scope: All COVID swab confirmed hospitalised patients to UHB from January – May 2020. The dataset includes highly granular patient demographics & co-morbidities taken from ICD-10 & SNOMED-CT codes but also primary care records and clinic letters. Serial, structured data pertaining to care process (timings, staff grades, specialty review, wards), presenting complaint, acuity, all physiology readings (pulse, blood pressure, respiratory rate, oxygen saturations), all blood results, microbiology, all prescribed & administered treatments (fluids, antibiotics, inotropes, vasopressors, organ support), all outcomes. Linked images available (radiographs, CT, MRI, ultrasound).

Available supplementary data: Health data preceding and following admission event. Matched “non-COVID” controls; ambulance, 111, 999 data, synthetic data.

Available supplementary support: Analytics, Model build, validation & refinement; A.I.; Data partner support for ETL (extract, transform & load) process, Clinical expertise, Patient & end-user access, Purchaser access, Regulatory requirements, Data-driven trials, “fast screen” services.