The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in January 2025 after growing by 0.4 percent in December. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 3.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.
Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
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We have successfully extracted a comprehensive news dataset from CNBC, covering not only financial updates but also an extensive range of news categories relevant to diverse audiences in Europe, the US, and the UK. This dataset includes over 500,000 records, meticulously structured in JSON format for seamless integration and analysis.
This extensive extraction spans multiple segments, such as:
Each record in the dataset is enriched with metadata tags, enabling precise filtering by region, sector, topic, and publication date.
The comprehensive news dataset provides real-time insights into global developments, corporate strategies, leadership changes, and sector-specific trends. Designed for media analysts, research firms, and businesses, it empowers users to perform:
Additionally, the JSON format ensures easy integration with analytics platforms for advanced processing.
Looking for a rich repository of structured news data? Visit our news dataset collection to explore additional offerings tailored to your analysis needs.
To get a preview, check out the CSV sample of the CNBC economy articles dataset.
The statistic shows GDP per capita in the United Kingdom from 1987 to 2020, with projections up until 2029. In 2020, GDP per capita in the United Kingdom was at around 40,230.55 US dollars. The same year, the total UK population amounted to about 67.26 million people. The United Kingdom is among the leading countries in a world GDP ranking.Falling unemployment in a time of recessionGDP is a useful indicator when it comes to measuring the state of a nation’s economy. GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time, usually a year. GDP per capita equals exactly the GDI (gross domestic income) per capita and is not a measure of an individual’s personal income.As can be seen clearly in the statistic, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the United Kingdom is beginning to increase, albeit not to pre-recession levels. The UK is beginning to see signs of an economic recovery, though as of yet it remains unclear what sort of recovery this is. Questions have been raised as to whether the growth being seen is the right sort of growth for a well balanced recovery across the necessary sectors. An interesting oddity occurred in the United Kingdom for nine months in 2012, which saw a decreasing unemployment occurring at the same time as dip in nationwide economic productivity. This seems like good - if not unusual - news, but could be indicative of people entering part-time employment. It could also suggest that labor productivity is falling, meaning that the UK would be less competitive as a nation. The figures continue to rise, however, with an increase in employment in the private sector. With the rate of inflation in the UK impacting everyone’s daily lives, it is becoming increasingly difficult for vulnerable groups to maintain a decent standard of living.
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This dataset contains news headlines relevant to key forex pairs: AUDUSD, EURCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY. The data was extracted from reputable platforms Forex Live and FXstreet over a period of 86 days, from January to May 2023. The dataset comprises 2,291 unique news headlines. Each headline includes an associated forex pair, timestamp, source, author, URL, and the corresponding article text. Data was collected using web scraping techniques executed via a custom service on a virtual machine. This service periodically retrieves the latest news for a specified forex pair (ticker) from each platform, parsing all available information. The collected data is then processed to extract details such as the article's timestamp, author, and URL. The URL is further used to retrieve the full text of each article. This data acquisition process repeats approximately every 15 minutes.
To ensure the reliability of the dataset, we manually annotated each headline for sentiment. Instead of solely focusing on the textual content, we ascertained sentiment based on the potential short-term impact of the headline on its corresponding forex pair. This method recognizes the currency market's acute sensitivity to economic news, which significantly influences many trading strategies. As such, this dataset could serve as an invaluable resource for fine-tuning sentiment analysis models in the financial realm.
We used three categories for annotation: 'positive', 'negative', and 'neutral', which correspond to bullish, bearish, and hold sentiments, respectively, for the forex pair linked to each headline. The following Table provides examples of annotated headlines along with brief explanations of the assigned sentiment.
Examples of Annotated Headlines
Forex Pair
Headline
Sentiment
Explanation
GBPUSD
Diminishing bets for a move to 12400
Neutral
Lack of strong sentiment in either direction
GBPUSD
No reasons to dislike Cable in the very near term as long as the Dollar momentum remains soft
Positive
Positive sentiment towards GBPUSD (Cable) in the near term
GBPUSD
When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBPUSD
Neutral
Poses a question and does not express a clear sentiment
JPYUSD
Appropriate to continue monetary easing to achieve 2% inflation target with wage growth
Positive
Monetary easing from Bank of Japan (BoJ) could lead to a weaker JPY in the short term due to increased money supply
USDJPY
Dollar rebounds despite US data. Yen gains amid lower yields
Neutral
Since both the USD and JPY are gaining, the effects on the USDJPY forex pair might offset each other
USDJPY
USDJPY to reach 124 by Q4 as the likelihood of a BoJ policy shift should accelerate Yen gains
Negative
USDJPY is expected to reach a lower value, with the USD losing value against the JPY
AUDUSD
<p>RBA Governor Lowe’s Testimony High inflation is damaging and corrosive </p>
Positive
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expresses concerns about inflation. Typically, central banks combat high inflation with higher interest rates, which could strengthen AUD.
Moreover, the dataset includes two columns with the predicted sentiment class and score as predicted by the FinBERT model. Specifically, the FinBERT model outputs a set of probabilities for each sentiment class (positive, negative, and neutral), representing the model's confidence in associating the input headline with each sentiment category. These probabilities are used to determine the predicted class and a sentiment score for each headline. The sentiment score is computed by subtracting the negative class probability from the positive one.
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Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 2.80 percent in February from 3 percent in January of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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Private Investment in the United Kingdom decreased to -3.20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 1.90 percent in the third quarter of 2024. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Business Investment- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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These are datasets of economic sentiments derived from Uk newspapers using a dictionary and support vector machines. For more information on the application refer to :
Rambaccussing, D. and Kwiatkowski, A., 2020. Forecasting with news sentiment: Evidence with UK newspapers. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(4), pp.1501-1516.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207020300595
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Money Supply M0 in the United Kingdom increased to 97412 GBP Million in January from 97250 GBP Million in December of 2024. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Money Supply M0 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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The main stock market index in the United Kingdom (GB100) increased 479 points or 5.86% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from United Kingdom. United Kingdom Stock Market Index (GB100) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.
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GDP from Mining in the United Kingdom decreased to 8054 GBP Million in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 8261 GBP Million in the third quarter of 2024. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Gdp From Mining- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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News Sentiment Index Trend data was reported at 98.290 Index in 21 Mar 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 98.290 Index for 20 Mar 2025. News Sentiment Index Trend data is updated daily, averaging 101.205 Index from Jan 2005 (Median) to 21 Mar 2025, with 7047 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 125.840 Index in 03 May 2021 and a record low of 59.790 Index in 15 Mar 2020. News Sentiment Index Trend data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by The Bank of Korea. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Korea – Table KR.S013: News Sentiment Index.
The British Election Longitudinal News Study 2015–2019 (BELNS) contains campaign coverage relating to three general elections: 2015, 2017, 2019 and the 2016 EU referendum. Media included are national newspapers, local newspapers, television and radio news. The print newspaper component tracks topic and general election candidate coverage across 46 national and local sources, including actor-level sentiment in the 2015, 2017 and 2019 general elections. The television and radio component tracks topic and general election candidate coverage across 24national and local sources, including actor-level sentiment in the 2017 and 2019 general elections and the 2016 EU referendum. For issues, the data are at the outlet-day level on topics that correspond to mii, the “SINGLE MOST important issues facing the country” asked in all waves of the British Election Study Panels 2014 to 2023 (Fieldhouse et al. 2019) as open-ended response items. The unit of analysis is the news source with repeated measures for each day during the study period, with variables corresponding to election period (GE2015, GE2017, GE2019, Brexit), and topics. For the candidate data, the unit of analysis is the candidate standing for election (or political figure during the referendum) and the variables relate to: election period (GE2015, GE2017, GE2019) or the EU Referendum in 2016, number of stories in which candidate was mentioned across all sources, as well as sentiment per source using different measures.
This project gathered data on media coverage of the 2019 general election, with a view to developing a longitudinal media data file that combines our database of media news coverage of the 2015, 2017 and 2019 general elections, and of the 2016 EU Referendum. These data provide an opportunity to assess and understand the influence of media in British politics. This opportunity comes at a critical point in British politics, with a country divided by the new Brexit cleavage; more extreme parties whose moderates have been "hollowed out" by deselections and retirements; an increasingly hostile environment accompanied by incivility and a "coarsening" of political debate; and growing salience of local concerns driven by austerity politics.
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Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom remained unchanged at 4.40 percent in January. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
News audiences in Norway were the most likely to pay for online news according to a global study on paid digital news content consumption, with 40 percent having paid for news online in the last year. Ranked second was Sweden, followed by Australia, Finland, and the United States.
With the changing media landscape leading to more and more consumers turning to digital sources to access the news, publishers are adding paywalls on their sites. However, not all consumers are equally inclined to pay for digital news content. UK news audiences for example were substantially less likely to pay for online news than U.S. consumers.
Why pay for online news?
The reasons for paying for news are diverse and dependent on various factors. The digitalization of news allows stories to be shared and disseminated on a global scale, but not all sources are reliable or credible. For consumers, it is often difficult to identify trustworthy news sources, and as such which sources they would happily pay for.
Consumers may also be reluctant to pay for news because of the sheer amount of free content online. Whilst the availability of free content made news more accessible, at the same time this impacts journalists and publishers. In Finland for example, this has led to a correlated decrease in sales of printed content. As traditional print publications move online, there is also a growing reliance on advertising to generate revenue. Users are encouraged to pay for access to restricted material as publishers limit content to members only. Consumer’s willingness to pay was seen to be dependent on content, with Americans happier to pay for news than features or e-magazines.
Impact of the coronavirus
With the coronavirus pandemic forcing millions across the globe to stay at home, having access to digital news has never been more crucial, accordingly an increase of subscribers paying for premium news content could be expected. However the health crisis has also led to economic hardship for many, which may instead lead to people cutting out luxuries such as paid news subscriptions. In the UK for example, 2020 saw a decrease in people paying for news content compared to the previous year. With the pandemic dominating news reports, 2020 also saw audiences experience news fatigue, and after a year of news coverage saturated with coronavirus updates, consumers may feel the need to switch off entirely.
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The UK government invests £2.5 billion to support the steel industry, modernize production, and safeguard jobs in key regions.
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Gross National Product in the United Kingdom increased to 702109 GBP Million in the third quarter of 2024 from 696603 GBP Million in the second quarter of 2024. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Gross National Income - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
The Conservative party suffered a landslide defeat in the 2024 General Election, with the center-left Labour Party winning 412 seats, and the Conservatives just 121 seats. With 326 seats needed for a majority government, this was a crushing defeat for the Conservative Party, and the end of their 14 years in power. Despite winning a clear majority of seats, Labour won just 33.7 percent of the vote, just ahead of the Conservatives on 23.7 percent, and the Reform Party on 14.3 percent. Sunak unable to close the gap on Labour When Rishi Sunak announced the date of the 2024 general election on May 22, 2024, it ended months of speculation as to when the election would take place. Although Sunak likely hoped that more positive economic news regarding GDP growth and inflation would help him narrow the gap to Labour in the polls, this did not happen. Despite Keir Starmer's own unpopularity, Sunak was viewed even more unfavorably, perhaps due to his association with the chaotic reigns of his predecessors, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. At this point, the Conservative's were also seen by the electorate as less competent than Labour on major issues such as the economy, immigration, and healthcare, and faced an uphill task in changing these perceptions in time. Major stories of the campaign The inability of the Conservative to close the gap on Labour was also not been helped by a series of unforced errors by the Tories. One of the main news stories at the start of June, for example, was Rishi Sunak leaving the D-Day commemorations in Normandy early, to attend a pre-planned interview. This was then overshadowed by an alleged insider betting scandal regarding Conservative election candidates and the date of the general election. Another key event was also the return of Nigel Farage to mainstream UK politics, after he took over leadership of Reform UK early in the campaign. Farage's return gave the right-wing party a noticeable boost in the polls, mainly at the expense of the Conservatives.
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Core consumer prices in the United Kingdom increased 3.50 percent in February of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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Manufacturing Production in the United Kingdom decreased 1.50 percent in January of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Manufacturing Production - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in January 2025 after growing by 0.4 percent in December. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 3.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.