Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

The statistic shows the total population in the United Kingdom from 2015 to 2019, with projections up until 2025. The population grew steadily over this period.

Population of the United Kingdom

Despite a fertility rate just below the replacement rate, the United Kingdom’s population has been slowly but steadily growing, increasing by an average of 0.6 percent every year since 2002. The age distribution has remained roughly the same for the past ten years or so, with the share of the population over 65 years old seeing a slight increase as the baby boomer generation enters into that age bracket. That share is likely to continue growing slightly, as the United Kingdom has one of the highest life expectancies in the world.

The population of the island nation is predominantly white Christians, but a steady net influx of immigrants, part of a legacy of the wide-reaching former British Empire, has helped diversify the population. One of the largest ethnic minorities in the United Kingdom is that of residents of an Indian background, born either in the UK, India, or in other parts of the world. India itself is experiencing problems with rapid population growth, causing some of its population to leave the country in order to find employment. The United Kingdom’s relatively lower levels of unemployment and the historical connection between the two countries (which has also resulted in family connections between individuals) are likely reasons that make it a popular destination for Indian emigrants.

Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.

The population of England was estimated to have reached almost 57.7 million in 2023, compared with 53.9 million ten years earlier in 2013. Compared with 1971, the population of England has grown by over ten million.

Excel Age-Range creator for Office for National Statistics (ONS) Mid year population estimates (MYE) covering each year between 1999 and 2016

These files take into account the revised estimates for 2002-2010 released in April 2013 down to Local Authority level and the post 2011 estimates based on the Census results. Scotland and Northern Ireland data has not been revised, so Great Britain and United Kingdom totals comprise the original data for these plus revised England and Wales figures.

This Excel based tool enables users to query the single year of age raw data so that any age range can easily be calculated without having to carry out often complex, and time consuming formulas that could also be open to human error. Simply select the lower and upper age range for both males and females and the spreadsheet will return the total population for the range. Please adhere to the terms and conditions of supply contained within the file.

Tip: You can copy and paste the rows you are interested in to another worksheet by using the filters at the top of the columns and then select all by pressing Ctrl+A. Then simply copy and paste the cells to a new location.

ONS Mid year population estimates

Open Excel tool (London Boroughs, Regions and National, 1999-2016)

Also available is a custom-age tool for all geographies in the UK. Open the tool for all UK geographies (local authority and above) for: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.

This full MYE dataset by single year of age (SYA) age and gender is available as a Datastore package here.

Ward Level Population estimates

Single year of age population tool for 2002 to 2015 for all wards in London.

New 2014 Ward boundary estimates

Ward boundary changes in May 2014 only affected three London boroughs - Hackney, Kensington and Chelsea, and Tower Hamlets. The estimates between 2001-2013 have been calculated by the GLA by taking the proportion of a the old ward that falls within the new ward based on the proportion of population living in each area at the 2011 Census. Therefore, these estimates are purely indicative and are not official statistics and not endorsed by ONS. From 2014 onwards, ONS began publishing official estimates for the new ward boundaries. Download here.

Principal projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.

Population figures over a 25-year period, by single year of age and sex for clinical commissioning groups in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.

The population of the United Kingdom grew by 0.98 percent in 2023, the fastest annual growth rate during this time period. Before 2023, the UK population grew at its fastest rate in 2011 (0.84 percent) and shrank the most in 1982 (-0.12 percent.)

The annual population growth in the United Kingdom decreased by 0.3 percentage points (-26.55 percent) compared to the previous year. Population growth refers to the annual change in population, and is based on the balance between birth and death rates, as well as migration.

This statistic shows the preferred methods of conducting banking operations in Great Britain as of 2014, by age group. In general online banking was preferred over face to face banking across the board. Approximately 75 percent of adults aged 25 to 34 preferred to use online banking, either through a website or a mobile app.

In 2022, the median age of the population of the United Kingdom was 40.7 years, compared with 37.9 years in 2001. The average age of the UK population has been increasing throughout this time period, although between 2014 and 2016 the median age remained at 40.

Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for regions in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.

Chart and table of population level and growth rate for the London, UK metro area from 1950 to 2025. United Nations population projections are also included through the year 2035.

This project is a collaboration between the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID), Department of Health and Social Care and the School of Geography, University of Leeds. A set of population estimates by ethnic group, age and sex has been created for subnational geographies in England (Local Authorities and Clinical Commissioning Groups) annually for the period 2014 to 2019.

The purpose of the collaboration was to use the population estimates as denominators in rates of health. The data files, along with documentation and code, are made available here for others to use in health or other population related work.

ONS Mid-year estimates (MYE) of resident populations for London boroughs are available in the following files:

Read the GLA Intelligence Updates about the MYE data for 2011 and 2012.

Mid-year population by single year of age (SYA) and sex, for each year 1999 to 2014.

ONS mid-year estimates data back to 1961 total population for each year since 1961.

These files take into account the revised estimates released in 2010.

Ward level Population Estimates

London wards single year of age data covering each year since 2002.

Custom Age Range Tool

An Excel tool is available that uses Single year of age data that enables users to select any age range required.

ONS policy is to publish population estimates rounded to at least the nearest hundred persons. Estimates by single year of age, and the detailed components of change are provided in units to facilitate further calculations. They cannot be guaranteed to be as exact as the level of detail implied by unit figures.

Estimates are calculated by single year of age but these figures are less reliable and ONS advise that they should be aggregated to at least five-year age groupings for use in further calculations, onwards circulation, or for presentation purposes. (Splitting into 0 year olds and 1-4 year olds is an acceptable exception).

ONS mid-year population estimates data by 5 year age groups going all the way back to 1981, are available on the NOMIS website.

Data are Crown Copyright and users should include a source accreditation to ONS - Source: Office for National Statistics. Under the terms of the Open Government License (OGL) and UK Government Licensing Framework, anyone wishing to use or re-use ONS material, whether commercially or privately, may do so freely without a specific application. For further information, go to http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ or phone 020 8876 3444.

For a detailed explanation of the methodology used in population estimates, see papers available on the Population Estimates section of the ONS website. Additional information can also be obtained from Population Estimates Customer Services at pop.info@ons.gsi.gov.uk (Tel: 01329 444661).

This statistic shows the population prevalence of late-onset dementia in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2014. It is estimated that 33 percent of women and 22.6 percent of men aged between 90 and 94 years old have late-onset dementia in the UK.

Trend-based projections

Four variants of trend-based population projections and corresponding household projections are currently available to download. These are labelled as High, Central and Low and differ in their domestic migration assumptions beyond 2017. The economic crisis has been linked to a fall in migration from London to the rest of the UK and a rise in flows from the UK to London. The variants reflect a range of scenarios relating to possible return to pre-crisis trends in migration.

High: In this scenario, the changes to domestic migration flows are considered to be structural and recent patterns persist regardless of an improving economic outlook.

Low: Changes to domestic migration patterns are assumed to be transient and return to pre-crisis trends beyond 2018. Domestic outflow propensities increase by 10% and inflows decrease by 6% as compared to the High variant.

Central: Assumes recent migration patterns are partially transient and partially structural. Beyond 2018, domestic outlow propensities increase by 5% and inflows by 3% as compared to the High variant.

Central - incorporating 2012-based fertility assumptions: Uses the same migration assumptions as the Central projeciton above, but includes updated age-specific-fertility-rates based on 2011 birth data and future fertility trends taken from ONS's 2012-based National Population Projections. The impact of these changes is to increase fertility by ~10% in the long term.

GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections:
Borough: High
Borough: Low
Borough: Central
Borough: Central - incorporating 2012-based NPP fertility assumptions
Ward: Central

GLA 2013 round trend-based household projections:
Borough: High
Borough: Low
Borough: Central

GLA 2013 round ethnic group population projections:
Borough: Central

Updates:
Update 03-2014: GLA 2013 round of trend-based population projections - Methodology
Update 04-2014: GLA 2013 round of trend-based population projections - Results
Data to accompany Update 04-2014
Update 12-2014: GLA 2013 round ethnic group population projections
Data to accompany Update 12-2014

Housing linked projections

Two variants of housing-linked projections are available based on housing trajectories derived from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA). The two variants are produced using different models to constrain the population to available dwellings. These are referred to as the DCLG-based model and the Capped Household Size model. These models will be explained in greater detail in an upcoming Intelligence Unit Update.

Projection Models:

DCLG-Based Model

This model makes use of Household Representative Rates (HRR) from DCLG’s 2011-based household projections to convert populations by age and gender into households. The models uses iteration to find a population that yields a total number of households that matches the number of available household spaces implied by the development data. This iterative process involves modulating gross migration flows between each London local authority and UK regions outside of London. HRRs beyond 2021 have been extrapolated forward by the GLA. The model also produces a set of household projections consistent with the population outputs.

Capped Household Size Model

This model was introduced to provide an alternative projection based on the SHLAA housing trajectories. While the projections given by the DCLG-Based Model appear realistic for the majority of London, there are concerns that it could lead to under projection for certain local authorities, namely those in Outer London where recent population growth has primarily been driven by rising household sizes. For these boroughs, the Capped Household Size model provides greater freedom for the population to follow the growth patterns shown in the Trend-based projections, but caps average household size at 2012 levels. For boroughs where the DCLG-based SHLAA model gave higher results than the Trend-based model, the projections follow the results of the former.

Household projections are not available from this model.

Development assumptions:

SHLAA housing data

These projections incorporate development data from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) database to determine populations for 2012 onwards. Development trajectories are derived from this data for four phases: 2015-20, 2021-25, 2026-30, and 2031-36. For 2012-14, data is taken from the 2009 SHLAA trajectories. No data is included in the database for beyond 2036 and the 2031-36 trajectories are extended forward to 2041. This data was correct as at February 2014 and may be updated in future. Assumed development figures will not necessarily match information in the SHLAA report as some data on estate renewals is not included in the database at this time.

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based population projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based
Borough: capped SHLAA-based
Ward: SHLAA-based
Ward: capped SHLAA-based

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based household projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based ethnic group population projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based

Zero-development projections

The GLA produces so-called zero-development projections for London that assume that future dwelling stocks remain unchanged. These projections can be used in conjunction with the SHLAA-based projections to give an indication of the modelled impact of the assumed development. Variants are produced consistent with the DCLG-based and Capped Household Size projections. Due to the way the models operate, the former assumes no development beyond 2011 and the latter no development after 2012.

GLA 2013 round zero development population projections:
Borough: DCLG zero development
Borough: capped zero development
Ward: DCLG zero development
Ward: capped zero development

Frequently asked question: which projection should I use?

The GLA Demography Team recommends using the Capped Household Size SHLAA projection for most purposes. The main exception to this is for work estimating future housing need, where it is more appropriate to use the trend-based projections.

The custom-age population tool is here.

To access the GLA's full range of demographic projections please click here.

This data contains household 2014 based projections by district.

The methodology for the 2014-based household projections is based upon the 2012-based household projections. A description is provided in the Methodology Document.

The methodology uses the latest ONS sub-national population projections and incorporates information from the Census 2011 on household population and numbers down to local authority level and household formation rates at a national level.

As with the previous projections, the methodology is split into two stages: Stage One produces summary household numbers based on long-term demographic trends and Stage Two gives a more detailed breakdown of household type.

The assumptions underlying national household and population projections are based on demographic trends. They are not forecasts as, for example, they do not attempt to predict the impact of future Government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors that might influence household growth.

The projections show the household numbers that would result if the assumptions based in previous demographic trends in the population and rates of household formation were to be realised in practice.

United Kingdom Population: Wales: Aged <16 data was reported at 593.302 Person th in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 557.079 Person th for 2016. United Kingdom Population: Wales: Aged <16 data is updated yearly, averaging 590.000 Person th from Jun 1971 (Median) to 2017, with 47 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 693.000 Person th in 1973 and a record low of 554.841 Person th in 2014. United Kingdom Population: Wales: Aged <16 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Office for National Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s UK – Table UK.G002: Population: England and Wales.