The average market risk premium in the United States decreased slightly to *** percent in 2023. This suggests that investors demand a slightly lower return for investments in that country, in exchange for the risk they are exposed to. This premium has hovered between *** and *** percent since 2011. What causes country-specific risk? Risk to investments come from two main sources. First, inflation causes an asset’s price to decrease in real terms. A 100 U.S. dollar investment with three percent inflation is only worth ** U.S. dollars after one year. Investors are also interested in risks of project failure or non-performing loans. The unique U.S. context Analysts have historically considered the United States Treasury to be risk-free. This view has been shifting, but many advisors continue to use treasury yield rates as a risk-free rate. Given the fact that U.S. government securities are available at a variety of terms, this gives investment managers a range of tools for predicting future market developments.

Graph and download economic data for Real Risk Premium (TENEXPCHAREARISPRE) from Jan 1982 to Sep 2025 about premium, real, and USA.

This statistic illustrates the median market risk premium used for selected countries worldwide in 2024. The median market risk premium used in Turkey was the highest and reached a value of **** percent in that year.

The average market risk premium in Canada was *** percent in 2024. This means investors demanded an extra *** Canadian dollars on a 100 Canadian dollar investment. This extra cost should compensate for the risk of an investment based in Canada. What causes risk? As far as country-specific factors are concerned, macroeconomic trends can cause risk. For example, the inflation rate in relation to other countries can change the relative value of an investment. Lower inflation in Canada could weaken the Canadian dollar, reducing the value of Canadian assets in terms of another currency, such as the euro or U.S. dollar. The Canadian context As a country, Canada has a fairly high national debt. Some economists point to this as an increased default risk, since debt servicing can become costly. However, most investors agree that Canada, as an advanced economy, is creditworthy and not at risk of defaulting. A better measure is to look at Canada’s risk premium in the context of interest rates from other countries. These deposit rates can be used as a baseline for the market risk premium of other countries, though they do not include all the factors that have been used to calculate this statistic.

Market risk premiums (MRP) measure the expected return on investment an investor looks to make. For potential investors looking to add to their portfolio, the perfect scenario for a risk-based investment would be a high rate of return with as small a risk as possible. There are three main concepts to MRP’s, including required market risk premiums, historical market risk premiums and expected market risk premiums. United Kingdom shows little return for risk Europe wide, Finland had one of the lowest MRP alongside Poland and Germany. Ukraine had average risk premiums of **** percent in 2024. Having a lower market risk premium may seem bad, but for countries such as the UK and Germany where rates have been consistent for several years, it is because the market is stable as an environment for investment. Risk free rates Risk free rates are closely associated to market risk premiums and measure the rate of return on an investment with no risk. As there is no risk associated, the rate of return is lower than that of an MRP. Average risk free rates across Europe are relatively low.

United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 3.186 % pa in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.201 % pa for 2015. United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 2.868 % pa from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2016, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.793 % pa in 1981 and a record low of 0.587 % pa in 1965. United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

View market daily updates and historical trends for US Corporate BBB Bond Risk Premium. from United States. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Track e…

Split into three categories (required, historical, expected), market risk premiums measure the rate of return investors expect on an investment over the risk that investment holds. In Europe, average market risk premiums (MRP) sit between **** and *** percent. Greece sees hike in MRP Although it has a relatively high market risk premium, Greece has seen its rates significantly decrease since 2020. Greece also saw a ****** than average return rate on risk free investments. The same correlation can be seen with Europe’s less risky countries for investment. With Germany seeing some of the ****** market risk premiums and risk free returns in Europe. Required, historical and expected Separating the three types of market risk premiums is straightforward. Required MRP’s differ between investors, as approaches to investment change and measure the rate of return needed for an investment to be made. Expected premiums look at the rate of return, and what they are calculated to come out as, while historical MRP’s look back over a period at the average rate of return that investors previously got in the past.

The average market risk premium in South Africa increased to *** percent in 2024. Market premium risk represents the difference between return on equities and a risk-free investment, which is normally associated with short-term government bonds. For comparison, the U.S. market premium risk amounted to *** percent in the same year. Risk-free rate Most analysts consider the U.S. treasury rate to be the risk-free rate for the term of their investment, assuming the United States government will not default. Just as consumers in the Unites States get a credit rating, agencies such as Standard & Poor’s rate countries’ credit risks. Using these data, analysts compute the country-specific default risk, which in turn has an influence on the value of risk-free rate. What influences the return on equities? The economic factors such as political stability in a country, inflation rate, level of indebtment, trade deficit and investments have an influence on the activities of companies and their valuation on the stock exchanges. Apart from the economic cycle, the company’s operations itself, which are reflected in the results published in the financial reports, can boost or diminish the stock returns.

3.21 (%) in 2021. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the "risk free" treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.

Graph and download economic data for Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond (THREEFYTP10) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-09-12 about term premium, 10-year, bonds, and USA.

Abstract (en): This paper develops a production-based asset pricing model with two types of agents and concentrated ownership of physical capital. A temporary but persistent "distribution shock" causes the income share of capital owners to fluctuate in a procyclical manner, consistent with US data. The concentrated ownership model significantly magnifies the equity risk premium relative to a representative-agent model because the capital owners' consumption is more-strongly linked to volatile dividends from equity. With a steady-state risk aversion coefficient around 4, the model delivers an unleveled equity premium of 3.9 percent relative to short-term bonds and a premium of 1.2 percent relative to long-term bonds. (JEL D31, E13, E25, E32, E44, G12)

This dataset compiles national-level municipal bond issuance and pricing statistics for the United States, sourced from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA). It includes time-series data on municipal bond issuance volumes, average yields, interest rates, and maturity structures, aggregated on a monthly and annual basis. The dataset provides critical macro-financial context for evaluating subnational debt trends, especially in the context of climate adaptation investments and fiscal resilience. In particular, it supports comparative analysis between local climate-related borrowing (e.g., FEMA-backed projects) and national municipal debt trends, serving as a benchmark for assessing changes in risk premiums, cost of capital, and investor behavior. This file was used to calibrate yield spreads in empirical models evaluating the market response to federally co-funded nature-based infrastructure.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield (BAA) from Jan 1919 to Aug 2025 about Baa, bonds, corporate, yield, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Track real-time 10 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

General insurers can provide industry services at a fraction of the potential loss by pooling premiums to pay for losses some policyholders incur. The industry is an indispensable part of risk management in the domestic economy. General insurers derive income from insurance premiums and investing in bonds, stocks and other assets. Most property and casualty premiums are obtained through renewing policies relating to existing risks. Changes in risk exposure and pricing conditions affect remaining premiums. Many consumers view policies as inelastic, although some may choose to decrease consumption of insurance policies should premium prices increase too much. Policy pricing fluctuates between cycles of price-cutting (softening) and price raising (hardening). Over the past five years, revenue has grown at a CAGR of 3.4% to $1,021.1 billion, including an expected 2.1% increase in 2025 alone. Industry profit is also set to climb to 14.2% of revenue in the current year as insurance premiums have climbed and interest income has grown. Industry revenue has benefited from a hardening price cycle during the majority of the current period. Even though volatility at the onset of the period and a high inflationary environment in the latter part of the period hindered the broader economy, demand for industry services was not severely damaged. Net premiums increased for insurers, primarily because of the growth in the house price index and the rise of new car sales have led to higher insurance premiums to protect against potential liabilities. As economic conditions will continue to improve into the outlook period, employment and business activity in the broader economy are expected to increase and promote spending and the need for industry services. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates further following the recent rate cuts in the latter part of the period which will decrease investment income for P&C insurers, limiting industry revenue growth. Overall, revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.0% to $1,126.8 billion over the five years to 2030.

Description I am recommending a short of Texas Roadhouse (“TXRH” or the “Company”). The equity fails to adequately discount medium-term risks that I envision will challenge future results against high market expectations. The Company has already demonstrated some degradation in its business results, having missed street expectations during Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 followed by a low-quality beat during Q2 2023. TXRH is highly regarded for its historical growth but the law of large numbers is a headwind while the historical pattern of earnings growth is also confronting a significant cyclical beef inflation risk in the medium-term coupled with questionable unit growth objectives. While many components of the Company’s COGS witness a moderation of cost pressures, the largest cost component is beef which is confronting double-digit inflation. Although management might have some flexibility to address beef inflation with higher pricing, that strategy could compromise guest traffic as the “value proposition” would be marginalized and guests could seek an alternative, including the biggest competitor (i.e., eating-at-home), or trading-down to fast casual or other proteins within TXRH. Based on some multiple compression (0.5-1.0 to the 2024E EBITDA multiple) coupled with lower EBITDA in 2024 than is currently being forecasted, I envision there is 15-20% downside to TXRH’s equity. The key tenets of my short thesis follow: · Contraction to beef supply is likely a medium-term headwind · Food-Away-From Home prices accelerating above Food-At-Home which historically has influenced less out-of-home meal consumption · Most casual/full-service restaurant companies trade at the middle-to-lower end of historical valuation but TXRH is among the outliers trading at the higher-end · Unit growth objective for core brand is a high expectation · Margin degradation at the unit level · High expectations coupled with its premium valuation is a difficult threshold for TXRH to sustain · Insiders lack much equity alignment and recent insider activity might suggest a lack of insider confidence for significant equity upside in the near-to-medium term · New CFO from outside the restaurant industry might encounter unforeseen challenges and is an inconsistent appointment relative to TXRH’s deep-rooted culture and history of CFOs with restaurant industry experience · Recessionary risk continues to linger During at least the past fifteen years, the “limited service” segment has taken share from the “full service” segment in which TXRH focuses but the Company has effectively grown its units and same store sales through it with a menu focused on hand-cut steaks. Texas Roadhouse is the category leader and well-regarded for its food and service. The Company’s guest traffic growth reinforces its leadership but management is confronting medium-term headwinds that I believe will moderate the Company’s earnings growth. Given its track record of success, TXRH commands a premium valuation but also high expectations to sustain it and I believe the magnitude of the current premium fails to discount likely challenges. The publicly-traded restaurant landscape is littered with “growth” companies that re-rerated much lower as it is very difficult within this highly competitive industry to consistently exceed high expectations coupled with a premium valuation that exceeds 50%. The magnitude of the current premium fails to discount the likelihood of challenges to TXRH’s growth trajectory. When it comes to restaurant “growth” companies, the path of least resistance is higher (until it’s not) as investors who have greatly benefitted from the historical pattern of growth assume the likely trajectory is ongoing growth at a similar pace in spite of what might be one or two quarters of missed expectations. However, if there’s a change to investor sentiment pursuant to being concerned that the growth trajectory is different from the historical pattern, that premium multiple could compress quickly as evidenced from historical re-rating patterns. That said, I am not asserting anything dire with regards to TXRH but I do think a compression of the multiple and therefore the magnitude of the premium is warranted. For my valuation assumption, I estimate the EBITDA multiple will compress to 10.5-11x 2024E which is still a significant premium valuation and roughly in-line with the Company’s pre-COVID median EBITDA multiple. However, I would not be too surprised if the multiple compressed further as catalysts become more visible to challenge the Company’s growth expectation. It’s interesting to note that TXRH recently missed earnings expectations for both Q4 of 2022 and Q1 of 2023. In the former, TXRH’s equity did outperform the SPY by 140bps during the next five days but pursuant to the Q1 miss, TXRH’s equity was down by 7.5% and underperformed the SPY by over 900bps. In...

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BAA10Y) from 1986-01-02 to 2025-09-18 about Baa, spread, 10-year, maturity, bonds, Treasury, corporate, yield, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Insurance: Current Risk not Issued: Housing Insurance in Market Policies Moneylender在2025-02达-47,980.580BRL，相较于2024-12的610,522.390BRL有所下降。Insurance: Current Risk not Issued: Housing Insurance in Market Policies Moneylender数据按月度更新，2013-12至2025-02期间平均值为15,876.170BRL，共134份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于2014-02，达3,318,092.510BRL，而历史最低值则出现于2015-11，为-18,583,746.050BRL。CEIC提供的Insurance: Current Risk not Issued: Housing Insurance in Market Policies Moneylender数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Superintendence of Private Insurance，数据归类于Brazil Premium Database的Insurance Sector – Table BR.RGB011: Premium: Current Risk not Issued。

A little over half of investors believe the risk premium of seniors housing in the United States will increase in the next 12 months, according to a June 2022 survey. In this case, the risk premium refers to the spread between the risk-free ******* Treasury and seniors housing cap rates. The average United States risk market premium has hovered between *** and *** percent since 2011.