The price of emissions allowances (EUA) traded on the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) exceed 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂ for the first time in February 2023. Although average annual EUA prices have increased significantly since the 2018 reform of the EU-ETS, they fell ** percent year-on-year in 2023 to ** euros. What is the EU-ETS? The EU-ETS became the world’s first carbon market in 2005. The scheme was introduced as a way of limiting GHG emissions from polluting installations by putting a price on carbon, thus incentivizing entities to reduce their emissions. A fixed number of emissions allowances are put on the market each year, which can be traded between companies. The number of available allowances is reduced each year. The EU-ETS is now in its fourth phase (2021 to 2030). Carbon price comparisons The EU ETS has one of the highest average annual carbon prices worldwide, with EUAs averaging ** U.S. dollars as of April 2024. In comparison, prices for UK ETS caron credits averaged 45 U.S. dollars during same period, while those under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in the United States averaged just ** U.S. dollars.

EU Carbon Permits fell to 70.68 EUR on August 15, 2025, down 0.39% from the previous day. Over the past month, EU Carbon Permits's price has fallen 0.88%, and is down 2.54% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for EU Carbon Permits.

China launched its national emissions trading system (ETS) in 2021, becoming the world's largest carbon market by emissions coverage. As of April 2025, carbon prices of China's national ETS hovered around ** USD/tCO₂e. The China national ETS builds on the seven pilot projects that have been implemented in seven cities and provinces across the country. These pilot ETS will continue to operate alongside the national ETS, covering emissions not yet included in the national system.

The price of one carbon allowance under the United Kingdom Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) was **** U.S. dollars per metric ton on April 1, 2025. The UK ETS launched in 2021 after the country's withdrawal from the European Union, and covers emissions from energy-intensive industries, the power generation sector, and aviation.

Prices for EU Carbon Permits including live quotes, historical charts and news. EU Carbon Permits was last updated by Trading Economics this August 18 of 2025.

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a carbon emission trading scheme (or cap and trade scheme) which began in 2005 and is intended to lower greenhouse gas emissions by the European Union countries. The "ETS prices 2008-2024" dataset contains a summary of ETS prices in 2008-2024.

As of April 2025, the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) carbon price was above ** U.S. dollars per metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (USD/tCO₂e). The EU ETS launched in 2005 as a cost-effective way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and was the world's first major international carbon market. The UK was formerly part of the EU ETS, but replaced this with its own system after withdrawing from the EU. As of April 2025, the price of carbon on the UK ETS was almost ** USD/tCO₂e.

The cost of UK ETS carbon permits (UKAs) was around *** GBP in February 2023, but prices have fallen considerably since then. Prices on January 16, 2025 were just ***** GBP, down ** percent from the same date the previous year. Formerly part of the EU ETS, the UK launched its own cap-and-trade system in 2021 following Brexit. Why has the UK’s carbon price fallen? Several factors have contributed to falling UK carbon prices, including mild winter weather and reduced power demand, as well as a surplus of carbon allowances on the market. While prices have recovered marginally from the record lows, they remain markedly below carbon prices on the EU ETS. The low cost of UK carbon permits has raised concerns that it could deter investment in renewable energy. Future of UK ETS The UK ETS covers emissions from domestic aviation and the industry and power sectors, amounting to some ** percent of the country’s annual GHG emissions. There are plans to expand the system over the coming years to cover CO₂ venting by the upstream oil and gas sector, domestic maritime emissions, and energy from waste and waste incineration. The UK is also looking to introduce a carbon border adjustment mechanism, which would place a carbon price on certain emissions-intensive industrial goods imported to the UK.

As the country with the largest CO2 emissions in the world, the Chinese government has put forward clear goals of hitting peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060. Thus, China started piloting carbon emission trading in 2013, and in July 2021 China opened national carbon trading, which is the largest carbon market in the world (China Launches World, 2021). Therefore, it is very important for China to study the role and mechanism of carbon trading at present. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of China’s carbon market pilot, this paper uses panel data of 30 provinces in mainland China from 2008 to 2019 to conduct an empirical study on carbon emission reduction and the economic effects in China’s pilot provinces through a Time-varying Differences-in-Differences method model. The results show that the implementation of a carbon trading policy can significantly inhibit carbon emissions and promote economic growth. At the same time, this paper further analyzes the emission reduction mechanism of the carbon emissions trading policy through the intermediary effect test and finds that the policy mainly realizes carbon emission reduction by changing the energy consumption structure, promoting low-carbon innovation, and upgrading the industrial structure. In addition, innovative research has found the impact of a carbon price signal and marketization on the emission reduction effect of the carbon market. Finally, targeted suggestions are put forward.

The global carbon credit trading market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing regulatory pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and a growing awareness of environmental sustainability among businesses and governments. The market, currently estimated at $150 billion in 2025 (this is an estimated figure based on typical market sizes for related sectors and CAGR trends), is projected to exhibit a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15% between 2025 and 2033. This expansion is fueled by several key factors, including the implementation of carbon pricing mechanisms like emissions trading schemes (ETS) in various regions, the burgeoning voluntary carbon market driven by corporate sustainability initiatives, and technological advancements that enhance transparency and efficiency in carbon credit trading. Major market players include established carbon offset providers, energy companies, and specialized financial institutions, actively engaging in project development, verification, and trading of carbon credits. Geographic distribution reflects the concentration of regulatory frameworks and industrial activity, with North America and Europe currently holding significant market shares. However, market growth is not without challenges. The lack of standardization and transparency across different carbon credit standards and registries remains a significant obstacle, creating uncertainty and potentially hindering market liquidity. Concerns about the additionality and permanence of carbon offset projects also require further scrutiny and improved methodologies. Further impediments include the complexity of carbon credit trading regulations, a potential for market manipulation, and the need for greater public awareness and education to drive wider participation. To unlock the full potential of carbon credit trading as a crucial tool in the fight against climate change, addressing these challenges through improved regulation, technology, and robust verification mechanisms is paramount. Overcoming these hurdles will allow for a more efficient and trustworthy market, thereby attracting wider investment and facilitating further reduction of global carbon emissions.

European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) carbon allowances are estimated to average ** euros per metric ton of carbon dioxide (tCO₂e) in 2024. This figure is forecast to more than double by the end of the decade to roughly *** euros/tCO₂e, before reaching nearly *** euros/tCO₂e by 2035. EU-ETS carbon prices surpassed the 100 euros per metric ton threshold for the first time in February 2023.

The global trading of carbon credits market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing regulatory pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and a growing corporate commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives. The market size in 2025 is estimated at $150 billion, demonstrating significant expansion from previous years. While the exact CAGR isn't provided, considering the rapid adoption of carbon offsetting schemes and the expanding scope of carbon pricing mechanisms globally, a conservative estimate would place the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) between 15-20% for the forecast period (2025-2033). This substantial growth is fuelled by several key drivers, including the implementation of carbon pricing schemes like the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the burgeoning voluntary carbon market, where companies purchase credits to offset their emissions. Further, technological advancements facilitating easier credit verification and trading platforms are streamlining the market. However, market growth faces some restraints. Challenges include concerns about the integrity and accuracy of carbon credit projects, the lack of standardized methodologies for verification, and the complexities involved in navigating international regulations. Despite these, the increasing awareness of climate change and the growing demand for sustainable practices are expected to significantly outweigh these challenges. The market is segmented by various credit types (e.g., REDD+, forestry, renewable energy), project developers, trading platforms and geographical regions. Key players like South Pole Group, 3Degrees, and ClimatePartner are shaping the market through their extensive project portfolios and trading expertise. This intense competition fosters innovation and pushes for greater transparency and efficiency in the market, leading to long-term market expansion and increased corporate responsibility.

As of 2027, the EU will implement a second Emission Trading System (EU ETS 2) to cap emissions in buildings, road transport and small industries not covered by the already existing European Emissions Trading System. Substantial uncertainty remains regarding potential price trajectories and their underlying drivers. In light of this, we explore EU ETS 2 price paths using the energy system model PRIMES. We focus on the effect of complementary efficiency policies (EPs), as earlier research suggests they could have a profound impact. Indeed, analyzing three scenarios with different EPs stringency, we find that they make EU ETS 2 prices vary between 71 EUR/tCO2 and 261 EUR/tCO2 in 2030. Despite different instruments driving emission abatement, comparable emission reductions at the EU level (−41%) are achieved in all three scenarios. Energy efficiency policies at both EU and national levels are expected to significantly impact EU ETS 2 price levelsThe more stringent energy efficiency policies are, the lower the EU ETS 2 priceModeled EU ETS 2 prices lie in the range of 71–261 EUR/tCO2, depending on the stringency of complementary energy efficiency policies assumed in scenariosFundamentally modeled EU ETS 2 prices point to the possibility of price stability mechanisms of EU ETS 2 being triggered Energy efficiency policies at both EU and national levels are expected to significantly impact EU ETS 2 price levels The more stringent energy efficiency policies are, the lower the EU ETS 2 price Modeled EU ETS 2 prices lie in the range of 71–261 EUR/tCO2, depending on the stringency of complementary energy efficiency policies assumed in scenarios Fundamentally modeled EU ETS 2 prices point to the possibility of price stability mechanisms of EU ETS 2 being triggered

There is one programming code in the language GAMS. It simulates data on emissions, banked emissions, auctioning, cancellation of allowances, in various scenarios. The purpose of these scenarios is to assess the impacts of various emission profiles on the Market Stability Reserves, the ETS market and prices. The data are copied (partly directly and partly by hand) into 2 Excel files, which also construct the figures used in the manuscript.

The size of the Compliance Carbon Credit Market was valued at USD 0.82 Million in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.16 Million by 2032, with an expected CAGR of 14.81% during the forecast period. The compliance carbon credit market is essential in the global initiative to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, offering a structured approach for companies and nations to fulfill their regulatory requirements under climate policies. This market functions within cap-and-trade frameworks or carbon pricing systems established by governmental bodies and international accords, including the Paris Agreement. Entities that are subject to emission restrictions must either curtail their emissions or acquire carbon credits to offset any excess emissions. These credits signify verified reductions in greenhouse gases achieved through various projects, such as renewable energy developments, reforestation efforts, or methane capture technologies. The compliance carbon credit market has experienced substantial growth as an increasing number of regions adopt obligatory carbon pricing. Notable examples include the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and California’s Cap-and-Trade Program, where industries are mandated to purchase credits to adhere to emission limits. This market creates a financial incentive for businesses to invest in cleaner technologies and practices, thereby encouraging innovation and contributing to a reduction in overall emissions. Nevertheless, the market encounters challenges, including the need for credible verification of carbon credits, the prevention of market manipulation, and the management of price fluctuations in carbon credits. Despite these challenges, the compliance carbon credit market continues to be a vital tool for achieving global climate objectives and advancing sustainable development. Recent developments include: April 2024: Regional efforts in the Western United States and Canada are gaining momentum as the urgency of combating climate change increases. Plans to link their carbon markets are being drawn up in California, Quebec, and Washington, which could significantly affect trading dynamics. The three authorities intend to work together to create a more extensive carbon credit market as soon as their proposed alliance takes effect., January 2024: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued proposed guidance on the listing of voluntary carbon credit (VCC) derivatives contracts on designated contract markets for the public to comment on the proposal.. Key drivers for this market are: Regulatory Mandates and Policies, Growing Corporate Sustainability Initiatives. Potential restraints include: Market Complexity and Uncertainty. Notable trends are: Charting the Course of Carbon Pricing: UK-ETS Post-Brexit.

The average annual price of European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) allowances fell ** percent year-on-year in 2024, to ** euros. Still, EU ETS carbon allowances are forecast to rise to almost *** euros by the end of the decade. Each EU ETS emissions allowance (EUA) gives the holder the right to emit one metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent.

The climate and carbon finance market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing global awareness of climate change and the urgent need for emission reduction strategies. The market, encompassing carbon trading, offsetting, and pricing mechanisms, is projected to expand significantly over the forecast period (2025-2033). Several factors contribute to this expansion, including stringent government regulations, corporate sustainability initiatives, and the growing demand for environmentally friendly solutions. The increasing adoption of carbon pricing mechanisms, such as carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes (ETS), is a key driver. Furthermore, the development of innovative carbon offsetting projects, including reforestation and renewable energy initiatives, is fueling market expansion. While challenges remain, such as the complexity of carbon accounting and the potential for market manipulation, the overall trend points towards substantial growth. The segmentation of the market into various applications (intermediaries, verifiers, exchanges, project developers) and types (cap and trade, offsetting, pricing) reflects the multifaceted nature of the industry. This diversity creates opportunities for a wide range of players, including technology providers, consulting firms, and financial institutions. The geographical distribution of the market, with significant growth expected in both developed and developing economies, highlights the global nature of climate action. Assuming a conservative CAGR of 15% (a reasonable estimate given the market's momentum) and a 2025 market size of $50 billion, the market is poised for considerable expansion in the coming years. The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of established players and emerging companies. Established players like Verra and Gold Standard dominate the carbon credit verification and validation space, while companies like EcoAct and South Pole Group offer comprehensive carbon management services. The emergence of new technologies and innovative business models is further stimulating competition. However, the industry's growth is not without its hurdles. The lack of standardization in carbon accounting methodologies, the potential for fraud in carbon offset projects, and the volatility of carbon prices present significant challenges. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the climate and carbon finance market remains positive, driven by the increasing urgency of climate action and the growing sophistication of carbon markets. Effective regulation, transparent market mechanisms, and technological innovation will be crucial in ensuring the sustainable growth and integrity of this vital sector.

This upload contains the modeling results (CO2 price trajectories, MSR figures, capacities, electricity dispatch) presented in the article:

Sitarz, J., Pahle, M., Osorio, S., Luderer, G., Pietzcker R. : "EU carbon prices signal high policy credibility and farsighted actors" (Under Review).

You may use the files to reproduce all figures of the article.

Content of this upload:

• Fig_3.csv - CO2 price trajectories displayed in Figure 3
• Fig_4_6_ExtData4.csv - CO2 price trajectories displayed in Figures 4, 6 and Extended Data Figure 4
• Fig_7.csv - Electricity dispatch and capacities displayed in Figure 7
• Fig_ExtData1.csv - MSR Figures displayed in Extended Data Figure 1
• Fig_ExtData2.csv - EUAs bought or sold by investors displayed in Extended Data Figure 2
• Fig_Methodology.csv - Electricity dispatch and capacities displayed in Methodology Figures

Carbon prices across multiple emissions trading systems worldwide are expected to increase during the period of 2026 to 2030, compared to 2022 to 2026. The average EU ETS carbon price is expected to be **** euros per metric ton of CO₂ during the period 2022 to 2025, but is projected to rise to almost 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂ during the period of 2026 to 2030, according to a survey of International Emissions Trading Association members. EU ETS carbon pricing broke the ** euros per metric ton of CO₂ barrier in February 2022, and in February 2023 it surpassed 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂.

This paper studies the heterogeneous effects of exchange rate and stock market on carbon emission allowance price in four emissions trading scheme pilots in China. We employ a panel quantile regression model, which can describe both individual and distributional heterogeneity. The empirical results illustrate that the effects of explanatory variables on carbon emission allowance price is heterogeneous along the whole quantiles. Specifically, exchange rate has a negative effect on carbon emission allowance price at lower quantiles, while becomes a positive effect at higher quantiles. In addition, a negative effect exists between domestic stock market and carbon emission allowance price, and the intensity decreasing along with the increase of quantile. By contrast, an increasing positive effect is discovered between European stock market and domestic carbon emission allowance prices. Finally, heterogeneous effects on carbon emission allowance price can also be proved in European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS).