EU Carbon Permits fell to 82.64 EUR on December 1, 2025, down 0.74% from the previous day. Over the past month, EU Carbon Permits's price has risen 1.77%, and is up 20.06% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for EU Carbon Permits.

The price of emissions allowances (EUA) traded on the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) exceed 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂ for the first time in February 2023. Although average annual EUA prices have increased significantly since the 2018 reform of the EU-ETS, they fell ** percent year-on-year in 2024 to ** euros. What is the EU-ETS? The EU-ETS became the world’s first carbon market in 2005. The scheme was introduced as a way of limiting GHG emissions from polluting installations by putting a price on carbon, thus incentivizing entities to reduce their emissions. A fixed number of emissions allowances are put on the market each year, which can be traded between companies. The number of available allowances is reduced each year. The EU-ETS is now in its fourth phase (2021 to 2030). Carbon price comparisons The EU ETS has one of the highest average annual carbon prices worldwide, averaging ** U.S. dollars as of April 2025. In comparison, prices for UK ETS carbon credits averaged 57 U.S. dollars during same period, while those under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in the United States averaged just ** U.S. dollars.

European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) carbon allowances are estimated to average ** euros per metric ton of carbon dioxide (tCO₂e) in 2024. This figure is forecast to more than double by the end of the decade to roughly *** euros/tCO₂e, before reaching nearly *** euros/tCO₂e by 2035. EU-ETS carbon prices surpassed the 100 euros per metric ton threshold for the first time in February 2023.

Prices for EU Carbon Permits including live quotes, historical charts and news. EU Carbon Permits was last updated by Trading Economics this December 2 of 2025.

Carbon prices across multiple emissions trading systems worldwide are expected to increase during the period of 2026 to 2030, compared to 2022 to 2026. The average EU ETS carbon price is expected to be **** euros per metric ton of CO₂ during the period 2022 to 2025, but is projected to rise to almost 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂ during the period of 2026 to 2030, according to a survey of International Emissions Trading Association members. EU ETS carbon pricing broke the ** euros per metric ton of CO₂ barrier in February 2022, and in February 2023 it surpassed 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂.

As of April 2025, the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) carbon price was above ** U.S. dollars per metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (USD/tCO₂e). The EU ETS launched in 2005 as a cost-effective way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and was the world's first major international carbon market. The UK was formerly part of the EU ETS, but replaced this with its own system after withdrawing from the EU. As of April 2025, the price of carbon on the UK ETS was almost ** USD/tCO₂e.

Given the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to decrease the risk of dangerous climate change, economists have often argued in favour of carbon pricing. Carbon pricing can essentially take two forms: an emissions trading system or a carbon tax. The European Union chose the former option and implemented the EU ETS in 2005, the first large scale carbon market. As a first mover in experimenting with such regulatory instruments, the EU ETS case offers qualitative and quantitative insights of foremost importance for emerging carbon markets worldwide. This thesis is divided into two parts. Part I provides ex-post learnings on the EU ETS price formation and policy design. Part II offers an ex-ante perspective by exploring the expansion of the European carbon market. Both parts pay particular attention to a central feature of the EU ETS: its political nature as a government created market. This institutional perspective on the EU ETS, which seeks to take into consideration the impact of politics and institutions on market functioning, is at the heart of this thesis. It brings a new lens to examine emissions trading as well as draws on the experience of other policy fields, notably monetary policy. Following the drop of permit prices in the EU ETS, intense discussions emerged on the need to and modality for reforming the market, which is the focus of Part I of this thesis. Yet, evaluating the need to reform first implies understanding the goals of the EU ETS and whether market outcomes are likely to deliver on their promises. Chapter 2 lays the groundwork for the remaining discussions of the thesis by clarifying the different implicit and explicit objectives expected from the EU ETS. Although cost-effectiveness is often proclaimed to be the main goal of the EU ETS, stakeholder opinions diverge regarding the appropriate time frame for this objective, some focusing on short-term while other having a long-term perspective. In addition, certain stakeholders have multiple objectives, for instance, addressing the social cost of carbon. Based on economic theory, Chapter 2 then provides a comprehensive review of the drivers of the price collapse in the EU ETS, classifying them into three categories: (i) exogenous demand shock, (ii) lack of policy credibility and (iii) market imperfections. From this classification, a new framework to map the reform option space is developed. It carefully examines which policy options represent potential solutions depending both on what drives the price as well as on the objective intended for the EU ETS. Drawing on the analogy to monetary policy, this mapping of the reform option space introduces the concept of delegation in the context of emissions trading. Delegation reflects the extent to which the governance of the market is relinquished to a rule-based adjustment mechanism or an independent body with varying levels of discretionary power. Complementing the qualitative analysis of Chapter 2, Chapter 3 offers an empirical analysis of price formation. It shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, demand-related fundamentals such as fuel prices or the economic downturn only explain a fraction of the carbon price drop. Importantly, chapter 3 provides preliminary evidence that regulatory uncertainty and the lack of policy credibility played a much larger role than previously assumed in driving down the price. Chapter 4 is a direct follow-up, closing the gap on the influence of regulatory events in price formation. Using an empirical event study methodology, the chapter carefully investigates how the political process of the cap adjustment has shaped market outcomes in the European carbon market. The findings show that the tedious process of achieving reform unveiled the lack of political consensus on the EU ETS goals; thereby increasing political uncertainty and contributing to the price decline. These empirical findings have critical implications for the reform of the EU ETS – instruments that do not attempt to anchor long-term regulatory credibility are unlikely to be successful in bringing the price closer to its long-term, socially-optimal path. In this context, though delegation is unlikely to be a silver bullet, it could strengthen the credibility of political commitment by locating the governance of the market outside the political sphere. It could likewise reinforce the flexibility of responding to “unknown unknowns”. Supplementing the previous chapters, Chapter 5 provides a comprehensive policy analysis of the specific reform option for the EU ETS proposed by the European Commission in 2014 following the price collapse: the Market Stability Reserve (MSR). It is argued that the MSR is unlikely to enhance long-term commitment credibility, raising doubt on its ability to trigger low carbon investments. This policy evaluation is embodied in a broader reform context taking both an ex-post and ex-ante perspectives. It thereby bridges Part I and II. The second half of this thesis, Part II, offers a forward-looking perspective on the expansion of carbon markets. Chapter 6 investigates the sectoral expansion of the EU ETS towards agriculture, which has often been perceived as challenging. Implementation barriers are regularly cited as impeding carbon pricing in the sector, in particular transaction costs stemming from sector specificities, risks of leakage and distributional impacts on farmers, often perceived as major veto-players. However, the importance of the barriers hinges critically on the precise policy design. Chapter 6 therefore offers the first synthesis of literature on the pricing of agricultural emissions with the rich body of literature on the design of carbon markets. The chapter provides a new perspective on carbon pricing in European agriculture by disentangling the key dimensions of policy design in the light of implementation barriers. In particular, it investigates the role of policy coverage, instrument choice and transfers to farmers in overcoming policy obstacles. First, it is shown that a policy coverage targeting large farms and few emission sources could include a significant share of agricultural emissions, while reducing transaction costs. Second, it is argued that the distributional impacts and leakage risks are contingent upon the policy being voluntary or mandatory. From this perspective, a voluntary instrument can be attractive, but comes at the cost of possible subsidy lock-ins and carbon price distortion. Third, the role of the Common Agricultural Policy and its potential interaction with carbon pricing is highlighted as being pivotal in determining political feasibility. Chapter 7 focuses on the other critical side of carbon pricing, going beyond jurisdictional borders. In principle, linking could lead to efficiency gains and reduce the cost of compliance for entities covered under a trading system. Taking the example of REDD+ offsets (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation), Chapter 7 investigates the trade-offs between the opportunities of allowing an import of cheaper offsets in carbon markets and the risks it entails in terms of investments. It is shown that a well-designed policy could provide a risk-hedging opportunity for compliance entities while having limited impact on low carbon investment. In sum, this thesis concentrates on investigating the conditions under which the EU ETS requires policy intervention. It offers an institutional view on the EU ETS reform. Drawing on empirical results, it demonstrates the role of political commitment in price formation. It then analyses the pros and cons of delegation in carbon markets to overcome time-inconsistency and lack of policy credibility (Part I). Part II delivers insights to broaden carbon pricing in the European Union and beyond in the future. Focusing on pricing agricultural emissions, it provides a framework to disentangle the different dimensions of policy design and conceptualize policies that reduce implementation barriers. Finally, Part II examines the trade-offs associated with various policy options to link carbon markets to a forestry offset scheme.

Discover the booming carbon credit trading market! Learn about its $150 billion 2025 valuation, 15-20% CAGR, key players, and future trends. Explore market segmentation, regional analysis, and the challenges impacting this rapidly evolving sector.

Data about the EU emission trading system (ETS). The EU emission trading system (ETS) is one of the main measures introduced by the EU to achieve cost-efficient reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and reach its targets under the Kyoto Protocol and other commitments. The data mainly comes from the EU Transaction Log (EUTL).

The cost of UK ETS carbon permits (UKAs) was around *** GBP in February 2023, but prices have fallen considerably since then. Prices on January 16, 2025 were just ***** GBP, down ** percent from the same date the previous year. Formerly part of the EU ETS, the UK launched its own cap-and-trade system in 2021 following Brexit. Why has the UK’s carbon price fallen? Several factors have contributed to falling UK carbon prices, including mild winter weather and reduced power demand, as well as a surplus of carbon allowances on the market. While prices have recovered marginally from the record lows, they remain markedly below carbon prices on the EU ETS. The low cost of UK carbon permits has raised concerns that it could deter investment in renewable energy. Future of UK ETS The UK ETS covers emissions from domestic aviation and the industry and power sectors, amounting to some ** percent of the country’s annual GHG emissions. There are plans to expand the system over the coming years to cover CO₂ venting by the upstream oil and gas sector, domestic maritime emissions, and energy from waste and waste incineration. The UK is also looking to introduce a carbon border adjustment mechanism, which would place a carbon price on certain emissions-intensive industrial goods imported to the UK.

The global trading of carbon credits is a rapidly expanding market, driven by increasing regulatory pressure to mitigate climate change and the growing awareness of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors among businesses. The market, estimated to be worth $200 million in 2025, is projected to experience a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2025 to 2033. This robust growth is fueled by several factors. Firstly, the expansion of carbon pricing mechanisms, including emissions trading schemes (ETS) like the EU ETS and regional initiatives, creates a significant demand for carbon credits. Secondly, corporate sustainability initiatives are pushing companies to offset their carbon footprints, driving demand for high-quality, verified credits. Thirdly, technological advancements in monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) are enhancing the transparency and efficiency of the carbon credit market, boosting investor confidence. However, challenges remain, including concerns about the quality and legitimacy of some carbon credits, the need for standardized methodologies, and the potential for market manipulation. Despite these challenges, the long-term outlook for the carbon credit market is overwhelmingly positive. Continued government regulations, increasing corporate demand for offsetting, and technological innovation are all pointing towards substantial growth. While the specifics of regional market share will depend on various governmental policies and existing emission reduction efforts, it's anticipated that North America and Europe will dominate initially, given their established ETS programs and strong corporate ESG commitments. However, the Asia-Pacific region, with its large and rapidly developing economies, presents significant future growth potential. The diversification of the market, with various types of carbon credits and applications emerging, will further add to its complexity and opportunity. Segmentation by application (e.g., renewable energy, industrial processes) and type (e.g., verified emission reductions, removals) will refine market understanding and provide targeted investment opportunities. This ongoing evolution necessitates constant monitoring of regulatory developments, technological innovations, and market trends for successful navigation of this dynamic landscape.

This dataset contains the empirical material used for the submitted manuscript.It includes sentiment scores derived from stakeholder submissions to the European Commission’s “Have Your Say” consultation portal (2017–2024) concerning the evolution and reform of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS).The file contains sentiment scores and firm- or sector-level characteristics used in the econometric analysis. All feedback texts are publicly available on the Commission’s website and have been processed solely for academic, non-commercial research purposes.

The average annual price of European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) allowances fell ** percent year-on-year in 2024, to ** euros. Still, EU ETS carbon allowances are forecast to rise to almost *** euros by the end of the decade. Each EU ETS emissions allowance (EUA) gives the holder the right to emit one metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Empirical result of European market.

There is one programming code in the language GAMS. It simulates data on emissions, banked emissions, auctioning, cancellation of allowances, in various scenarios. The purpose of these scenarios is to assess the impacts of various emission profiles on the Market Stability Reserves, the ETS market and prices. The data are copied (partly directly and partly by hand) into 2 Excel files, which also construct the figures used in the manuscript.

These are inputs into the BEIS Carbon Price Models, which are used for analysis, including for estimating impacts on the carbon price of policy changes, and for producing BEIS's updated short-term traded carbon values for modelling purposes and for public policy appraisal. Updated short-term traded carbon values for modelling purposes have been used in the latest update to BEIS’s Energy and Emissions projections (EEP) and will be used in other models of electricity generation and investment across government. BEIS’s short-term traded carbon values for UK public policy appraisal are used for valuing the impact of government policies on emissions in the traded sector, that is those sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). These data are not released: they are commercial in nature because they have been produced for the Department by external contractors under commercial contract.

Carbon Trading Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the global carbon trading market size reached USD 950 billion in 2024, with a robust year-on-year growth driven by tightening climate regulations and increasing corporate commitments to net-zero emissions. The market is projected to expand at a remarkable CAGR of 18.7% from 2025 to 2033, reaching an estimated USD 4,665 billion by 2033. This explosive growth is underpinned by the proliferation of carbon pricing mechanisms, expanding participation in voluntary and compliance markets, and a surge in demand for carbon offsets across diverse industries. As per our latest research, the carbon trading market is witnessing unprecedented momentum, fueled by both regulatory mandates and voluntary sustainability initiatives.

One of the primary growth factors for the carbon trading market is the intensification of global climate policies and the implementation of stricter emission reduction targets. Governments worldwide, especially in developed economies, are adopting comprehensive carbon pricing frameworks, including cap-and-trade systems and carbon taxes, to incentivize emission reductions. The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), for example, continues to set the benchmark for market-based climate action, while China’s national carbon market is scaling rapidly. The increasing alignment of national policies with the Paris Agreement’s objectives is compelling corporations to internalize the cost of carbon, thereby driving demand for carbon credits and allowances. This regulatory push is expected to accelerate as more countries announce net-zero targets and integrate carbon trading into their climate strategies.

Corporate sustainability commitments and the rise of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing are also pivotal in propelling the carbon trading market forward. Companies across sectors are under mounting pressure from investors, consumers, and regulators to decarbonize their operations and supply chains. As a result, businesses are actively participating in both compliance and voluntary carbon markets to offset residual emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. The voluntary market, in particular, is witnessing exponential growth as organizations seek high-quality offsets such as renewable energy, reforestation, and methane capture projects to bolster their green credentials. This trend is further amplified by the proliferation of ESG funds and the integration of climate risk into financial decision-making, which collectively heighten the importance of carbon trading as a strategic tool for risk management and value creation.

Technological advancements and digitalization are reshaping the landscape of carbon trading, making transactions more transparent, efficient, and accessible. The adoption of blockchain technology, AI-driven verification platforms, and digital marketplaces is streamlining the issuance, tracking, and trading of carbon credits. These innovations are reducing transaction costs, enhancing traceability, and minimizing the risk of fraud, thereby fostering greater trust and participation in both voluntary and compliance markets. Moreover, the emergence of standardized methodologies and third-party verification bodies is improving the credibility and environmental integrity of carbon offset projects. As digital infrastructure matures, it is expected to unlock new avenues for market growth, including the tokenization of carbon credits and the integration of carbon trading with broader sustainability reporting frameworks.

Regionally, Europe continues to dominate the carbon trading market, accounting for the largest share due to the maturity and scale of the EU ETS. However, Asia Pacific is emerging as the fastest-growing region, driven by China’s expanding national carbon market and increasing participation from countries such as South Korea and Japan. North America is also witnessing renewed momentum, particularly with the strengthening of cap-and-trade programs in California and the resurgence of federal climate policy in the United States. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are gradually integrating carbon trading into their climate agendas, with pilot projects and regional collaborations gaining traction. The interplay of regulatory frameworks, market infrastructure, and cross-border linkages will shape the regional dynamics of the carbon trading market in the coming years.

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Carbon Credit Market Outlook

As per our latest research, the global carbon credit market size reached USD 978.6 billion in 2024, reflecting robust growth driven by tightening environmental regulations and a surge in corporate net-zero commitments. The market is expected to expand at a compelling CAGR of 18.7% from 2025 to 2033, reaching an estimated USD 5,246.1 billion by 2033. This remarkable growth trajectory is fueled by increasing demand for carbon offsetting solutions, expansion of both compliance and voluntary carbon markets, and growing investments in sustainable development projects worldwide. The convergence of regulatory mandates and voluntary climate action is fundamentally reshaping the carbon credit landscape, making it a pivotal component in the global transition to a low-carbon economy.

The primary growth factor propelling the carbon credit market is the escalating stringency of environmental regulations across major economies. Governments and regulatory bodies in regions such as the European Union, North America, and Asia Pacific are implementing ambitious emissions reduction targets, often supported by cap-and-trade systems and carbon pricing mechanisms. These policies create a robust compliance-driven demand for carbon credits, compelling industries to invest in emissions offset projects or purchase credits to meet regulatory obligations. Additionally, the integration of carbon pricing into national strategies, such as the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and ChinaÂ’s national carbon market, is significantly expanding the addressable market for carbon credits, further accelerating market growth.

Another significant driver is the proliferation of voluntary carbon markets, underpinned by a surge in corporate climate pledges and the growing influence of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing. Corporations, particularly in sectors with hard-to-abate emissions, are increasingly leveraging voluntary carbon credits to achieve net-zero or carbon-neutral goals. This trend is further amplified by consumer and investor demand for sustainable business practices, compelling companies to offset residual emissions through verified carbon projects. The development of innovative project types, such as nature-based solutions and technology-driven carbon removal, is expanding the scope and diversity of available credits, attracting a broader spectrum of participants and investors into the market.

Technological advancements and digitization are also playing a crucial role in shaping the future of the carbon credit market. Blockchain technology, digital monitoring, and verification platforms are enhancing transparency, traceability, and trust in carbon credit transactions. These innovations are streamlining the issuance, trading, and retirement of credits, reducing transaction costs, and mitigating risks associated with double counting or fraud. As a result, both compliance and voluntary markets are witnessing increased participation from institutional investors, financial intermediaries, and new market entrants, further driving market liquidity and scalability.

From a regional perspective, Europe continues to hold the largest share of the global carbon credit market, accounting for over 40% of the total value in 2024, owing to its mature regulatory framework and ambitious climate policies. North America follows closely, with significant growth anticipated due to the expansion of state-level carbon trading programs and corporate climate action. Asia Pacific is emerging as the fastest-growing region, propelled by the launch of ChinaÂ’s national carbon market and increasing participation from countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are also witnessing rising activity, primarily in nature-based projects and renewable energy, as governments and private sector entities seek to capitalize on emerging carbon finance opportunities.

The concept of Blue Carbon Credit is gaining traction as a vital component in the fight against climate change. These credits are derived from projects that protect and restore coastal and marine ecosystems, such as mangroves, seagrasses, and salt marshes, which are highly effective at sequestering carbon dioxide. As awareness of the importance of marine ecosystems grows, blue carbon projects are

The EU has established the world’s first cross-border emission-trading systems (ETS) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, currently covering aviation, emission-intensive sectors, and electricity (EITE). The EU Commission has offered to apply emissions trading in new sectors where emissions from maritime transport will be incorporated into the current EU ETS, while a separated emissions trading system will cover emissions from road transport and the building sector. This paper employs a multi-regional multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with two simultaneous international emission permit markets. After examining the abatement costs for the EU regions, various policy scenarios are implemented to study the welfare effects of forming an ETS covering the sectors other than EITE (NEIT) and its linking with the EITE sectors under two different baselines and four emission reduction targets. The results provide several important insights: (i) Marginal abatement costs in Germany and the Eastern European Union region (EEU) are significantly lower than in the rest of the EU regions. (ii) The carbon price in the emission permit market covering NEIT is significantly higher than the carbon price in the emission permit market covering EITE. (iii) Germany and EEU appear as notable suppliers of emission permits in both markets. (iv) There is a significant aggregate welfare gain under the scenario in which the ETS covering NEIT co-exists parallel with the ETS covering EITE. (v) The aggregate welfare in the EU under the full integration of EITE and NEIT may fall below its value under the scenario with two parallel emission permit markets.

Empirical results of panel quantile regression.