The price of emissions allowances (EUA) traded on the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) exceed 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂ for the first time n February 2023. Athough average annual EUA prices have increased significantly since the 2018 reform of the EU-ETS, they fell 19 percent year-on-year in 2023 to 65 euros. What is the EU-ETS? The EU-ETS became the world’s first carbon market in 2005. The scheme was introduced as a way of limiting GHG emissions from polluting installations by putting a price on carbon, thus incentivizing entities to reduce their emissions. A fixed number of emissions allowances are put on the market each year, which can be traded between companies. The number of available allowances is reduced each year. The EU-ETS is now in its fourth phase (2021 to 2030). Volatility of carbon prices EU carbon prices are volatile and change daily. Prices are determined by the supply and demand of allowances. In March 2022, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war caused EUA prices to crash to less than 60 euros/tCO₂ due to the expected ban on Russian energy imports in Europe.

European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) carbon allowances are estimated to average 65 euros per metric ton of carbon dioxide (tCO₂e) in 2024. This figure is forecast to more than double by the end of the decade to almost 150 euros/tCO₂e, before reaching nearly 200 euros/tCO₂e by 2035. EU-ETS carbon prices surpassed the 100 euros per metric ton threshold for the first time in February 2023.

The average annual price of European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) allowances fell 22 percent year-on-year in 2024, to 65 euros. Still, EU ETS carbon allowances are forecast to rise to almost 150 euros by the end of the decade. Each EU ETS emissions allowance (EUA) gives the holder the right to emit one metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Carbon prices across multiple emissions trading systems worldwide are expected to increase during the period of 2026 to 2030, compared to 2022 to 2026. The average EU ETS carbon price is expected to be 84.4 euros per metric ton of CO₂ during the period 2022 to 2025, but is projected to rise to almost 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂ during the period of 2026 to 2030, according to a survey of International Emissions Trading Association members. EU ETS carbon pricing broke the 90 euros per metric ton of CO₂ barrier in February 2022, and in February 2023 it surpassed 100 euros per metric ton of CO₂.

As of April 2024, the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) carbon price was above 60 U.S. dollars per metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (USD/tCO₂e). The EU ETS launched in 2005 as a cost-effective way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and was the world's first major international carbon market. The UK was formerly part of the EU ETS, but replaced this with its own system after withdrawing from the EU. As of April 2024, the price of carbon on the UK ETS was 45 USD/tCO₂e.

The average closing spot price of European Emission Allowances (EUAs) has increased notably since reforms were made to the EU ETS in 2018. In 2022, the average closing spot price of CO₂ EUAs increased by roughly 19 percent to 47.3 euros per metric ton of CO₂.

These are inputs into the BEIS Carbon Price Models, which are used for analysis, including for estimating impacts on the carbon price of policy changes, and for producing BEIS's updated short-term traded carbon values for modelling purposes and for public policy appraisal. Updated short-term traded carbon values for modelling purposes have been used in the latest update to BEIS’s Energy and Emissions projections (EEP) and will be used in other models of electricity generation and investment across government. BEIS’s short-term traded carbon values for UK public policy appraisal are used for valuing the impact of government policies on emissions in the traded sector, that is those sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). These data are not released: they are commercial in nature because they have been produced for the Department by external contractors under commercial contract.

The cost of UK ETS carbon permits (UKAs) was around 100 GBP in February 2023, but prices have fallen considerably since then. Prices on January 16, 2025 were just 32.57 GBP, down 11 percent from the same date the previous year. Formerly part of the EU ETS, the UK launched its own cap-and-trade system in 2021 following Brexit. Why has the UK’s carbon price fallen? Several factors have contributed to falling UK carbon prices, including mild winter weather and reduced power demand, as well as a surplus of carbon allowances on the market. While prices have recovered marginally from the record lows, they remain markedly below carbon prices on the EU ETS. The low cost of UK carbon permits has raised concerns that it could deter investment in renewable energy. Future of UK ETS The UK ETS covers emissions from domestic aviation and the industry and power sectors, amounting to some 30 percent of the country’s annual GHG emissions. There are plans to expand the system over the coming years to cover CO₂ venting by the upstream oil and gas sector, domestic maritime emissions, and energy from waste and waste incineration. The UK is also looking to introduce a carbon border adjustment mechanism, which would place a carbon price on certain emissions-intensive industrial goods imported to the UK.

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Carbon Credit Market Size 2025-2029

The carbon credit market size is forecast to increase by USD 1,966.3 billion at a CAGR of 32.1% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant growth due to rising emissions in the Earth's atmosphere, which necessitates the need for businesses and individuals to offset their carbon footprint. Booming investment and partnership deals in this market are driving its expansion, with various organizations recognizing the importance of reducing their carbon emissions and contributing to environmental sustainability. However, the fluctuating prices of carbon credits pose a challenge for market participants, as they can impact the profitability of carbon offsetting projects.
To stay competitive, market players must closely monitor carbon credit prices and adapt their strategies accordingly. In summary, the market is witnessing increasing demand due to growing environmental concerns and regulatory requirements, but its growth is influenced by the volatility of carbon credit prices.

What will the Carbon Credit Market Size during the forecast period?

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The market has gained significant traction in recent years as businesses and individuals seek to offset their carbon emissions and contribute to the global decarbonization effort. This market facilitates the buying and selling of carbon credits, which represent the right to emit a specific amount of greenhouse gases. The voluntary carbon market plays a crucial role in this context, enabling organizations to offset their carbon footprint beyond regulatory requirements. Net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions have become a key business objective, driving demand for carbon credits from various sources. Forestry projects are a significant contributor to the market. These projects involve the protection, restoration, or reforestation of forests, which act as carbon sinks, absorbing and storing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Carbon emission reduction projects, such as renewable energy and energy efficiency initiatives, also contribute to the market. Carbon storage projects, including those focused on geological storage, are another essential component. The market's dynamics are influenced by various factors, including regulatory policies, market prices, and technological advancements. As the world moves towards a low-carbon economy, the demand for carbon credits is expected to continue growing, making it an attractive investment opportunity for businesses and individuals alike.

How is this market segmented and which is the largest segment?

The market research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

End-user

  Power
  Energy
  Transportation
  Industrial
  Others


Type

  Compliance
  Voluntary


Geography

  Europe

    Germany
    UK
    France
    Italy


  Asia

    China


  North America



  Rest of World (ROW)

By End-user Insights

The power segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

Carbon credits represent financial instruments that enable organizations to invest in emission reduction projects, contributing to the global effort to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. These initiatives, which focus on conservation, biodiversity, and livelihoods, provide a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change.

Additionally, the energy sector, specifically power generation, can benefit significantly from this shift, as renewable energy sources offer a sustainable and non-depleting alternative to coal and natural gas. To achieve the international goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2°C or 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is crucial. Carbon credits facilitate this transition by incentivizing investment in renewable energy projects and reducing the overall carbon footprint.

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The power segment was valued at USD 61.30 billion in 2019 and showed a gradual increase during the forecast period.

Regional Analysis

Europe is estimated to contribute 84% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period.

Technavio's analysts have elaborately explained the regional trends and drivers that shape the market during the forecast period.

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The European Union (EU) held a significant share of The market in 2023, with countries like the UK and Germany being major buyers. To achieve climate neutrality by 2050, the EU established the International Emissions Trading System (ETS) in 2005, which sets the cost of CO2 emissions

European Union Emission Trading System (EU-ETS) revenues reached a record high of 47.4 billion U.S. dollars in 2023. This accounted for around 63 percent of global emissions trading revenues that year. EU-ETS revenues from the auctioning of allowances has increased considerably in recent years, owing to factors like rising prices. EU ETS revenues go toward various end uses, including renewable energy development, low-carbon transportation, and improving energy efficiency.

When the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) started in 2005 it covered 4.41 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2005, the EU ETS was the only emissions trading system in the world. It is now estimated to cover 2.69 percent of global emissions. As of 2023, carbon pricing instruments, such as the EU ETS, covered 23 percent of global emissions.

Free allowances in the EU-ETS are to be phased out gradually from 2026 and will end by 2034. These free allowances are to be replaced with the world's first carbon border levy, which will take effect in 2026. The newly adopted carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will initially apply to imports of several carbon intensive products that are at the most risk of carbon leakage, such as iron and steel, cement, aluminum, and electricity, therefore making foreign firms and competitors pay the same carbon price as European industries. The CBAM phase-in plan will cease EU-ETS freely allocated allowances over a nine-year period.

The price of one carbon allowance under the United Kingdom Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) was 45.06 U.S. dollars per metric ton on April 1, 2024, This was roughly half of what one allowance cost a year earlier. The UK ETS launched in 2021 after the country's withdrawal from the European Union, and covers emissions from energy-intensive industries, the power generation sector, and aviation.

There were 75 carbon pricing mechanisms in operation worldwide as of April 1, 2024, covering roughly 13 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. These comprised 39 carbon tax initiatives and 36 Emissions Trading Systems (ETS). 13 ETS were national initiatives, while 23 were sub-national initiatives, such as the RGGI in the U.S. The only regional ETS in place was the EU ETS. The number of operating carbon pricing mechanisms has increased considerably in recent years.

Global revenues from carbon taxes and Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) reached a high of 104 billion U.S. dollars in 2023. EU-ETS revenues accounted for almost half of this total. ETS now account for the largest share of global carbon pricing revenues, having surpassed carbon tax revenues in recent years.

Carbon pricing instruments covered almost 13 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent as of April 2024, representing around 24 percent of global GHG emissions. The share of global GHG emissions covered by carbon pricing mechanisms, like carbon taxes and emissions trading systems, has increased considerably since 2005, the year the EU ETS became the world's first major carbon market. As of 2024, there were 75 carbon pricing mechanisms in operation worldwide.

The global direct carbon price averaged 23.2 U.S. dollars per metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (USD/tCO₂e) in 2023. For carbon pricing mechanisms to limit global warming to at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, average carbon prices will need to rise to at least 170 USD/tCO₂e by 2030 and at least 430 USD/tCO₂e by mid-century.

In 2023, 55 percent of global industry and construction emissions were covered by a carbon pricing mechanism. This share was mainly through emissions trading systems, particularly the EU ETS and Chinese pilot markets. The sector with the second-largest share of its emissions covered by carbon pricing mechanisms was heat and electricity production, at 50 percent. China's national ETS, which currently only regulates companies in the power sector, accounted for almost half of this sector's emissions coverage in 2023. Fugitive emissions and the agriculture sector are currently not covered by either emissions trading systems or carbon taxes.

In 2023, 55 percent of global industry and construction emissions were covered by a carbon pricing mechanism. Of this total, 42 percent were subject to emissions trading systems (ETSs), 11 percent to carbon taxes, and two percent to both mechanisms simultaneously. 42 percent of global heat and electricity production emissions were also covered by ETSs in 2023. Meanwhile, just eight and seven percent of building and transportation sector emissions were covered by ETSs, respectively. However, the EU ETS II will cover emissions from both these sectors when it becomes operational in 2027.

The value of the global carbon market increased two percent in 2023, to record high of 881 billion euros (949 billion U.S. dollars). The European Union Emission Trading System is the largest carbon market based on value, accounting for roughly 87 percent of the global market size in 2023. Carbon trading is the purchase and sale of credits that allow a company or entity, such as a power plant, to emit a certain amount of carbon dioxide.