ABSTRACT Purpose: The objective of this article is to model a minute series of exchange rates for the EUR/USD pair using the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and ARIMA-GARCH methods and evaluate which one offers better forecasts for a five-minute horizon. Originality/value: Despite being a successful technique in other branches of science, the application of SSA in finance is quite new. Furthermore, exchange rate modeling is a complex problem, comprising statistical concepts and properties. However, despite the complexity, the analysis of this series is extremely important for several agents playing, directly or indirectly, a role in the economy and the financial market. Design/methodology/approach: Time series models were estimated using the ARIMA-GARCH and SSA techniques, taking into account three samples of the ask exchange rate (closing): uptrend, downtrend, and no well-defined trend. Findings: The forecasts carried out by the SSA were the ones closest to the original observations for the three cases. Regarding the quality measurements, SSA obtained the best results for both uptrend and downtrend samples; for the sample with no well-defined trend, the findings indicated that the ARIMA-GARCH technique attained better results. However, it was concluded that the SSA forecasts, regarding exchange rates during the studied period, are more appropriate than the ones obtained by the ARIMA-GARCH model, regardless of the market movement.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Consumer Opinion Surveys: Consumer Prices: Future Tendency for Euro Area (19 Countries) (CSINFT02EZM460S) from Jan 1985 to May 2025 about consumer sentiment, consumer prices, Euro Area, Europe, consumer, and inflation.

A graphic that displays the dollar performance against other currencies reveals that economic developments had mixed results on currency exchanges. The third quarter of 2023 marked a period of disinflation in the euro area, while China's projected growth was projected to go up. The United States economy was said to have a relatively strong performance in Q3 2023, although growing capital market interest rate and the resumption of student loan repayments might dampen this growth at the end of 2023. A relatively weak Japanese yen Q3 2023 saw pressure from investors towards Japanese authorities on how they would respond to the situation surrounding the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY rate was close to ***, whereas analysts suspected it should be around ** given the country's purchase power parity. The main reason for this disparity is said to be the differences in central bank interest rates between the United States, the euro area, and Japan. Any future aggressive changes from, especially the U.S. Fed might lower those differences. Financial markets responded somewhat disappoint when Japan did not announce major plans to tackle the situation. Potential rent decreases in 2024 Central bank rates peak in 2023, although it is expected that some of these will decline in early 2024. That said, analysts expect overall policies will remain restrictive. For example, the Bank of England's interest rate remained unchanged at **** percent in Q3 2023. It is believed the United Kingdom's central bank will ease its interest rate in 2024 but less than either the U.S. Fed or the European Central Bank. This should be a positive development for the pound compared to either the euro or the dollar.

The dataset contains year- and month-wise compiled economic indicators data from the year 2010 to till date on the reference rates of indian rupees per each euro and dollar and economic premia

Notes:

1. Reference rate is an interest rate benchmark used to set other interest rates
2. Forward premium denotes to a situation in which the forward or expected future price for a currency is greater than the spot price

European Union Unemployment Rate: Trend: Euro Area 20 data was reported at 6.200 % in Mar 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 6.200 % for Feb 2025. European Union Unemployment Rate: Trend: Euro Area 20 data is updated monthly, averaging 8.800 % from Jan 2001 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 291 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.200 % in Jun 2013 and a record low of 6.200 % in Mar 2025. European Union Unemployment Rate: Trend: Euro Area 20 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Eurostat. The data is categorized under Global Database’s European Union – Table EU.G: Eurostat: Unemployment Rate: Trend.

Interactive historical chart showing the daily Euro - British Pound (EURGBP) exchange rate back to 1999.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

The Euro to Australian exchange rate history reveals a peak in March 2020, before declining well until mid 2022. Exchange rates fluctuate against each other constantly. As of May 2, 2025, the exchange rate was avalued at 1.77 Australian dollars per euro. The rate in which one currency performs against another depends on the demand that it generates at any given time. Exchange rates are affected by several factors including international trade, tourism and geopolitical tensions.Euro gains strength against the Brexit PoundOne good example of geopolitical risks having a negative effect on the strength of a currency is to look at the British Pound post Brexit referendum. The average annual exchange rate of the Euro to GBP increased significantly between 2015 and 2018.The Euro vs the worldSince 2016, the euro has performed well against several other currencies. The Euro to U.S dollar had seen its annual average exchange rate increase by .07 between 2016 and 2018, after slightly decreasing in 2019. Against the Indian Rupee, the Euro had performed even better, with the average annual exchange rate equaling 78.84 in 2019.

The statistic shows the inflation rate in the European Union and the Euro area from 2019 to 2022, with projections up until 2029. The term inflation, also known as currency devaluation (drop in the value of money), is characterized by a steady rise in prices for finished products (consumer goods, capital goods). The consumer price index tracks price trends of private consumption expenditure, and shows an increase in the index's current level of inflation. In 2022, the inflation rate in the EU was about 9.32 percent compared to the previous year. The economic situation in the European Union and the euro area The ongoing Eurozone crisis, which initially emerged in 2009, has dramatically affected most countries in the European Union. The crisis primarily prevented many countries from refinancing their debt without help from a third party and slowed economic growth throughout the entire EU. As a result, general gross debt escalated annually in the euro area and more prominently in the EU. The collective sum of debt is most likely going to continue, given the current global economic situation as well as Europe’s recovering, however struggling economy. Struggles are primarily evident in the EU’s budget balance, which saw itself in the negative every year over the same timeframe as the eurozone crisis, although the balances improved on a yearly basis. Despite economical struggles, the EU still grew in population almost every year over the past decade, primarily due to a high standard of living and job opportunities, compared to many of its surrounding neighbors.

Consumer Confidence Price Trends In the Euro Area decreased to 21.20 points in June from 23.60 points in May of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Euro Area Consumer Confidence Price Trends.

Global interest rate, long-term, total futures, Sum of ECU, Euro and legacy currencies now included in the Euro, on All exchanges, turnover - notional amounts (daily average), Monthly

At the end of February 2022, the exchange rate of the euro to the Russian ruble (EUR/RUB), stood at 115.48. That was the highest figure over the observed period. The value of Russia's national currency declined in view of the war in Ukraine that began in February 2022.

End-of-month versus average monthly EUR/RUB exchange rate The concrete, or point in time, measure shows the exchange rate as of the last day of each month, which is different to the standardized measure; calculation of average based on observations throughout the period in question. The average monthly exchange rate of the euro to the Russian ruble has steadily decreased since February 2022, reaching approximately 57.5 Russian rubles in June 2022.

EUR/RUB exchange rate in recent years

From December 2018 to February 2020, the end-of-month euro-ruble exchange rate has seen a downward trend. The COVID-19 outbreak and the sinking oil prices in March 2020 lead to a significant depreciation of the Russian national currency, thus one euro equaled 92.46 Russian rubles by the end of October of that year. The figures remained at above 80 Russian rubles per one euro throughout 2021.

Prices for EURZAR Euro South African Rand including live quotes, historical charts and news. EURZAR Euro South African Rand was last updated by Trading Economics this June 29 of 2025.

Interbank Rate In the Euro Area decreased to 1.94 percent on Friday June 27 from 1.98 in the previous day. This dataset provides - Euro Area Three Month nterbank Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

India Foreign Exchange Rate: RBI: Reference Rate: Euro data was reported at 95.994 EUR/INR in 15 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 95.412 EUR/INR for 14 May 2025. India Foreign Exchange Rate: RBI: Reference Rate: Euro data is updated daily, averaging 79.040 EUR/INR from Jan 1999 (Median) to 15 May 2025, with 6379 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 98.027 EUR/INR in 21 Apr 2025 and a record low of 56.070 EUR/INR in 19 May 2010. India Foreign Exchange Rate: RBI: Reference Rate: Euro data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of India. The data is categorized under High Frequency Database’s Foreign Exchange Rates – Table IN.MC001: Foreign Exchange Rate: Reserve Bank of India. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

The exchange rate history of the euro against the Japanese yen suggests that by 2022 one euro could buy as many yens as in early 2014. Since the introduction in 1999, the exchange rate against the Japanese currency fluctuated: before the financial crisis in 2008, one euro could buy almost 170 yens. In the summer of 2012, this had decreased to less than 100 yens. The exchange rate witnessed a steady growth amidst the coronavirus pandemic 2020, however. By May 2, 2025, the rate of a Japanese yen was 164.30 per euro.

Over the last two observations, the household penetration rate is forecast to significantly increase in all segments. The trend observed from 2020 to 2028 remains consistent throughout the entire forecast period. There is a continuous increase in the indicator across all segments. Notably, the Smart Home segment achieves the highest value of 48.33 percent at 2028. Find other insights concerning similar markets and segments, such as a comparison of average revenue per unit (ARPU) worldwide and a comparison of average revenue per unit (ARPU) in Denmark. The Statista Market Insights cover a broad range of additional markets.

As of May 13, 2025, the EUR/GBP rate experienced a resistance around***** level according to 50-day Fibonacci. Fibonacci — based off the famous infinite math sequence from 13-century Italy — is a metric often used in FX trading to find key levels of support and resistance. Essentially, the sequence potentially reveals thresholds on which traders can buy or sell assets and are typically set as profit targets. When these retracements are met, traders will act.

The Europe steel market size reached USD 236.9 Billion in 2024. Looking forward, IMARC Group expects the market to reach USD 260.1 Billion by 2033, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 1.15% during 2025-2033. The widespread product utilization in the construction industry, growing product applications in the automotive industry, increasing product demand for manufacturing home appliances, and the implementation of favorable policies by the regional governments represent some of the key factors driving the market.

IMARC Group provides an analysis of the key trends in each segment of the Europe steel market report, along with forecasts at the regional and country levels for 2025-2033. Our report has categorized the market based on type, product, and application.