In 2023, Ukraine had the fastest growing population in Europe. As a result of Ukrainian citizens who had fled Russia's invasion of the eastern European country in 2022 returning to the country in 2023, Ukraine's population grew by 3.68 percent compared to 2022. Excluding this special case, the European countries which saw the greatest population growth in 2023 were Luxembourg, Norway, and Ireland. Overall, Europe's population declined by 0.09 percent in 2022, with this varying by region from a 0.31 percent decline in eastern Europe to an increase of 0.33 percent in northern Europe. All of the countries which saw the largest declines in their population in 2023 were central and eastern European countries which had hosted large numbers of Ukrainian refugees in 2022. Moldova, one of Ukraine's closest neighbours, saw its population decline by 3.6 percent, while Poland's population declined by 2.2 percent, and Slovakia's by 1.8 percent.

The population of Europe is expected to fall from 740.6 million in 2023 to just 586.5 million people by 2100, in the medium-variant scenario provided in this projection. In the scenario where the population declines even further, the population of Europe may fall to as low as 401.2 million by 2100, while in the high-variant projection, the population will increase to approximately 830.6 million.

In the Cook Islands in 2024, the population decreased by about 2.24 percent compared to the previous year, making it the country with the highest population decline rate in 2024. Of the 20 countries with the highest rate of population decline, the majority are island nations, where emigration rates are high (especially to Australia, New Zealand, and the United States), or they are located in Eastern Europe, which suffers from a combination of high emigration rates and low birth rates.

The world's population first reached one billion people in 1803, and reach eight billion in 2023, and will peak at almost 11 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two thirds of the world's population live in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a decade later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.

The Eurobarometer series is a unique cross-national and cross-temporal survey program conducted on behalf of the European Commission. These surveys regularly monitor public opinion in the European Union (EU) member countries and consist of standard modules and special topic modules. The standard modules address attitudes towards European unification, institutions and policies, measurements for general socio-political orientations, as well as respondent and household demographics. The special topic modules address such topics as agriculture, education, natural environment and resources, public health, public safety and crime, and science and technology. Eurobarometer 83.3 covered the following special topics: (1) Attitudes towards the EU, (2) Europe 2020, (3) European economy, (4) European citizenship, (5) EU budget, and (6) Economic knowledge and attitude towards statistics. Respondents' opinions were collected regarding life satisfaction, the standard of living, self-esteem, and employment. Respondents were also questioned about the economic crisis, economic expectations, and public debt. Additional questions were asked regarding national governmental statistics, EU policies, national and European identity, participation in the EU, EU membership, and democracy. Demographic and other background information collected includes age, gender, nationality, marital status, occupation, age when stopped full-time education, household composition, ownership of a fixed or mobile telephone and other goods, difficulties in paying bills, level in society, and Internet use. In addition, country-specific data includes type and size of locality, region of residence, and language of interview (select countries).

The population of Europe decreased by approximately 0.09 percent in 2023, falling to an overall total of approximately 743.5 million people. Since 1961, Europe's population growth rate has never exceeded one percent, and was even declining in the late 1990s and between 2020 and 2023.

This research, designed by the World Bank, and supported by the Department for International Development (DFID), aims to highlight the unprecedented transformation of the urban systems in the ECA region in the last decades, and to look at this shifts from the demographic, economic, and spatial prospectives. Cities in ECA database comprises data from 5,549 cities in 15 countries of the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region, as defined by the World Bank Group, and from the United Kingdom and Germany. Database information for each city is in three dimensions: demographic, spatial, and economic. The starting point to construct the Cities in ECA database was to obtain from each of the countries the list of official cities and these cities' population data. Population data collected for cities falls on or around three years: 1989, 1999, and 2010 (or the latest year available). The official list of "cities" was geo-referenced and overlaid with globally-available spatial data to produce city-level indicators capturing spatial characteristics (e.g., urban footprint) and proxies for economic activity. City-level spatial characteristics, including urban footprints (or extents) for the years 1996, 2000, and 2010 and their temporal evolution, were obtained from the Global Nighttime Lights (NTL) dataset. City-level proxies for economic activity were also estimated based on the NTL dataset. Nighttime Lights (NLS) data is produced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Optical Line Scanner (OLS) database and maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

This research, designed by the World Bank, and supported by the Department for International Development (DFID), aims to highlight the unprecedented transformation of the urban systems in the ECA region in the last decades, and to look at this shifts from the demographic, economic, and spatial prospectives. Cities in ECA database comprises data from 5,549 cities in 15 countries of the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region, as defined by the World Bank Group, and from the United Kingdom and Germany. Database information for each city is in three dimensions: demographic, spatial, and economic. The starting point to construct the Cities in ECA database was to obtain from each of the countries the list of official cities and these cities' population data. Population data collected for cities falls on or around three years: 1989, 1999, and 2010 (or the latest year available). The official list of "cities" was geo-referenced and overlaid with globally-available spatial data to produce city-level indicators capturing spatial characteristics (e.g., urban footprint) and proxies for economic activity. City-level spatial characteristics, including urban footprints (or extents) for the years 1996, 2000, and 2010 and their temporal evolution, were obtained from the Global Nighttime Lights (NTL) dataset. City-level proxies for economic activity were also estimated based on the NTL dataset. Nighttime Lights (NLS) data is produced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Optical Line Scanner (OLS) database and maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The survey shows that the impact of the financial crisis has levelled off in most EU Member States. For example, the proportion of citizens saying they are having serious financial problems remains constant at the EU level and in most of the individual countries. Compared to the previous wave in December 2009, a similar number of citizens (23%) feel that their household situation will deteriorate in the next 12 months. The most pessimism is seen in Greece; this could also be due to the country being under intense economic and media pressure at the time of the survey. Overall, the crisis has had the most impact in southern and eastern European countries. Citizens in the Nordic countries remain optimistic about both the present situation and future economic developments. #####The results by volumes are distributed as follows: * Volume A: Countries * Volume AA: Groups of countries * Volume A' (AP): Trends * Volume AA' (AAP): Trends of groups of countries * Volume B: EU/socio-demographics * Volume C: Country/socio-demographics ---- Researchers may also contact GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences: http://www.gesis.org/en/home/

One European in six reports a constant struggle to pay household bills and three quarters believe that poverty has increased in their country over the past year. These are the key results from a new Eurobarometer survey on social impacts of the crisis, presented by the EU Commission today. The survey, carried out in May 2010, marks the halfway mark of the 2010 European Year against poverty and comes after EU leaders agreed on 17 June to lift 20 million Europeans out of poverty and social exclusion over the next decade. #####The results by volumes are distributed as follows: * Volume A: Countries * Volume AA: Groups of countries * Volume A' (AP): Trends * Volume AA' (AAP): Trends of groups of countries * Volume B: EU/socio-demographics * Volume C: Country/socio-demographics ---- Researchers may also contact GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences: http://www.gesis.org/en/home/

Trend-based projections

Four variants of trend-based population projections and corresponding household projections are currently available to download. These are labelled as High, Central and Low and differ in their domestic migration assumptions beyond 2017. The economic crisis has been linked to a fall in migration from London to the rest of the UK and a rise in flows from the UK to London. The variants reflect a range of scenarios relating to possible return to pre-crisis trends in migration.

High: In this scenario, the changes to domestic migration flows are considered to be structural and recent patterns persist regardless of an improving economic outlook.

Low: Changes to domestic migration patterns are assumed to be transient and return to pre-crisis trends beyond 2018. Domestic outflow propensities increase by 10% and inflows decrease by 6% as compared to the High variant.

Central: Assumes recent migration patterns are partially transient and partially structural. Beyond 2018, domestic outlow propensities increase by 5% and inflows by 3% as compared to the High variant.

Central - incorporating 2012-based fertility assumptions: Uses the same migration assumptions as the Central projeciton above, but includes updated age-specific-fertility-rates based on 2011 birth data and future fertility trends taken from ONS's 2012-based National Population Projections. The impact of these changes is to increase fertility by ~10% in the long term.

GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections:
Borough: High
Borough: Low
Borough: Central
Borough: Central - incorporating 2012-based NPP fertility assumptions
Ward: Central

GLA 2013 round trend-based household projections:
Borough: High
Borough: Low
Borough: Central

GLA 2013 round ethnic group population projections:
Borough: Central

Updates:
Update 03-2014: GLA 2013 round of trend-based population projections - Methodology
Update 04-2014: GLA 2013 round of trend-based population projections - Results
Data to accompany Update 04-2014
Update 12-2014: GLA 2013 round ethnic group population projections
Data to accompany Update 12-2014

Housing linked projections

Two variants of housing-linked projections are available based on housing trajectories derived from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA). The two variants are produced using different models to constrain the population to available dwellings. These are referred to as the DCLG-based model and the Capped Household Size model. These models will be explained in greater detail in an upcoming Intelligence Unit Update.

Projection Models:

DCLG-Based Model

This model makes use of Household Representative Rates (HRR) from DCLG’s 2011-based household projections to convert populations by age and gender into households. The models uses iteration to find a population that yields a total number of households that matches the number of available household spaces implied by the development data. This iterative process involves modulating gross migration flows between each London local authority and UK regions outside of London. HRRs beyond 2021 have been extrapolated forward by the GLA. The model also produces a set of household projections consistent with the population outputs.

Capped Household Size Model

This model was introduced to provide an alternative projection based on the SHLAA housing trajectories. While the projections given by the DCLG-Based Model appear realistic for the majority of London, there are concerns that it could lead to under projection for certain local authorities, namely those in Outer London where recent population growth has primarily been driven by rising household sizes. For these boroughs, the Capped Household Size model provides greater freedom for the population to follow the growth patterns shown in the Trend-based projections, but caps average household size at 2012 levels. For boroughs where the DCLG-based SHLAA model gave higher results than the Trend-based model, the projections follow the results of the former.

Household projections are not available from this model.

Development assumptions:

SHLAA housing data

These projections incorporate development data from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) database to determine populations for 2012 onwards. Development trajectories are derived from this data for four phases: 2015-20, 2021-25, 2026-30, and 2031-36. For 2012-14, data is taken from the 2009 SHLAA trajectories. No data is included in the database for beyond 2036 and the 2031-36 trajectories are extended forward to 2041. This data was correct as at February 2014 and may be updated in future. Assumed development figures will not necessarily match information in the SHLAA report as some data on estate renewals is not included in the database at this time.

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based population projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based
Borough: capped SHLAA-based
Ward: SHLAA-based
Ward: capped SHLAA-based

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based household projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based ethnic group population projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based

Zero-development projections

The GLA produces so-called zero-development projections for London that assume that future dwelling stocks remain unchanged. These projections can be used in conjunction with the SHLAA-based projections to give an indication of the modelled impact of the assumed development. Variants are produced consistent with the DCLG-based and Capped Household Size projections. Due to the way the models operate, the former assumes no development beyond 2011 and the latter no development after 2012.

GLA 2013 round zero development population projections:
Borough: DCLG zero development
Borough: capped zero development
Ward: DCLG zero development
Ward: capped zero development

Frequently asked question: which projection should I use?

The GLA Demography Team recommends using the Capped Household Size SHLAA projection for most purposes. The main exception to this is for work estimating future housing need, where it is more appropriate to use the trend-based projections.

The custom-age population tool is here.

To access the GLA's full range of demographic projections please click here.

This survey examines public opinion about the social impact of the global economic crisis. #####The results by volumes are distributed as follows: * Volume A: Countries * Volume AA: Groups of countries * Volume A' (AP): Trends * Volume AA' (AAP): Trends of groups of countries * Volume B: EU/socio-demographics * Volume C: Country/socio-demographics ---- Researchers may also contact GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences: http://www.gesis.org/en/home/

Over the last decades, the European hare (Lepus europaeus) has become the subject of many interdisciplinary studies due to the sharp Europe-wide population decline. In European hares, the first stage of life until weaning and the subsequent dispersal have been sparsely studied, in particular, habitat selection, movements and survival rate, as juveniles´ precocial lifestyle is dominated by concealment, motionlessness and inconspicuousness. In this study, free-living juvenile European hares (leverets) were detected systematically by thermography (n = 394), radio-tagged or marked (n = 122) from birth until the fifth week of life to research their habitat usage and pre-dispersal movements. The day-resting places and night locations, as well as the distance moved by leverets with aging, were evaluated by generalized linear mixed effect models. In addition, the habitat preference was assessed by a conservative use-availability analysis. Up to the fifth week of life, 30.5% of all leverets used cultivated areas in the daytime. In contrast, the remaining 69.4% animals inhabitated linear or small planar structures in the daytime, with the edges of field tracks, hedges and some ruderal structures clearly being preferred. At nighttime, 93% of all juveniles, which occupied linear structures in the daytime, used the adjoining fields up to 20 m away from the next linear structure. Nocturnal distances of more than 60 m to the next edge rarely occurred before the end of the pre-weaning phase. The time of day and age have a significant influence on the distance moved by juvenile hares. With increasing age, leverets moved less during the day and roamed further at night. The results are largely consistent with the behavioral patterns found in the few previous studies on pre-weaning European hares and show the importance of hiding places for leverets in early life stages. This study should contribute to a better understanding of behavior in juvenile life-history stages of European hares that may help to identify vulnerable phases in their lifecycle. In addition, the findings can refine existing population models and improve conservation efforts.

This survey is a follow-up to the July 2009 survey on the social impact of the global economic crisis. The results were more positive, with a high percentage of respondents feeling confident they would keep their jobs, and over half thinking the financial situation would be stable or improve in the next 12 months. Nevertheless, more than half felt poverty had increased at local, national and EU levels, and a fifth of those surveyed had difficulties keeping up with household bills. Regarding pensions, a large proportion thought they would have to save more, would receive lower pensions, or would have to retire later than planned. #####The results by volumes are distributed as follows: * Volume A: Countries * Volume AA: Groups of countries * Volume A' (AP): Trends * Volume AA' (AAP): Trends of groups of countries * Volume B: EU/socio-demographics * Volume C: Country/socio-demographics ---- Researchers may also contact GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences: http://www.gesis.org/en/home/

Background: Understanding how past climatic oscillations have affected organismic evolution will help predict the impact that current climate change has on living organisms. The European turtle dove, Streptopelia turtur, is a warm-temperature adapted species and a long distance migrant that uses multiple flyways to move between Europe and Africa. Despite being abundant, it is categorized as vulnerable because of a long-term demographic decline. We studied the demographic history and population genetic structure of the European turtle dove using genomic data and mitochondrial DNA sequences from individuals sampled across Europe, and performing paleoclimatic niche modelling simulations. Results: Overall our data suggest that this species is panmictic across Europe, and is not genetically structured across flyways. We found the genetic signatures of demographic fluctuations, inferring an effective population size (Ne) expansion that occurred between the late Pleistocene and early Holocene, followed by a decrease in the Ne that started between the mid Holocene and the present. Our niche modelling analyses suggest that the variations in the Ne are coincident with recent changes in the availability of suitable habitat. Conclusions: We argue that the European turtle dove is prone to undergo demographic fluctuations, a trait that makes it sensitive to anthropogenic impacts, especially when its numbers are decreasing. Also, considering the lack of genetic structure, we suggest all populations across Europe are equally relevant for conservation.

Throughout the Common Era, Western Europe's population development fluctuated greatly. The population was very similar at the beginning and end of the first millennium, at around 25 million people. The largest decline in this period occurred in the sixth century, due to the Plague of Justinian, which the source claims to have killed around one third of the continent's population (although recent studies dispute this). Similarly, the population fell by almost 17 million throughout the 14th century, due to the Black Death.

Improvements in agriculture and infrastructure then saw population growth increase once more from the 15th century onwards, before the onset of the demographic transition saw a population boom throughout the 19th and 20th centuries.

Parasites have the capacity to affect animal populations by modifying host survival, and it is increasingly recognized that infectious disease can negatively impact biodiversity. Populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) have declined in many European towns and cities, but the causes of these declines remain unclear. We investigated associations between parasite infection and house sparrow demography across suburban London where sparrow abundance has declined by 71% since 1995. Plasmodium relictum infection was found at higher prevalences (averaging 74%) in suburban London house sparrows than previously recorded in any wild bird population in Northern Europe. Survival rates of juvenile and adult sparrows and population growth rate were negatively related to Plasmodium relictum infection intensity. Other parasites were much less prevalent and exhibited no relationship with sparrow survival and no negative relationship with population growth. Low rates of co-infection suggested sparrows were not immunocompromised. Our findings indicate that P. relictum infection may be influencing house sparrow population dynamics in suburban areas. The demographic sensitivity of the house sparrow to P. relictum infection in London might reflect a recent increase in exposure to this parasite.

European citizens continue to show resolute support to aid provided to developing countries. One week before the UN High Level Meeting on the Millennium Development Goals, the survey shows that 89% of respondents consider development aid is important or very important. Two in three Europeans believe that the EU should honor, or even improve, on its promises to increase development aid to 0.7% of GNI by 2015, the deadline for achieving the Millennium Development Goal. This support, shared by a vast majority of citizens regardless of the nationality, has remained consistently high despite the financial crisis and the economic situation in Europe. In this context, three quarters (76%) of Europeans believe that there is added value in EU countries working together which contributes to avoid duplication and ensure aid effectiveness

The results by volumes are distributed as follows:

• Volume A: Countries
• Volume AA: Groups of countries
• Volume A' (AP): Trends
• Volume AA' (AAP): Trends of groups of countries
• Volume B: EU/socio-demographics
• Volume B' (BP) : Trends of EU/ socio-demographics
• Volume C: Country/socio-demographics ---- Researchers may also contact GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences: https://www.gesis.org/eurobarometer

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

The aims of this project were to:

• understand the demographic changes that United Kingdom local ethnic populations are presently experiencing and are likely to experience in the remainder of the 21st century
• understand the impact that international migration is having on the size and ethnic composition of UK local populations
• understand the role that differences in fertility between the UK's ethnic groups plays in shaping current and future trends
• understand the role that mortality differences between ethnic groups is playing in the changing demography of the UK's local populations
• understand how the ethnic diversity of UK local populations is changing and likely to change in the future
• deliver the projections as a resource for use by social science in the UK
• build capacity in the analysis of demographic change through the development of young and middle career researchers
• tap into the best practice internationally to benefit the UK social science community.

To achieve the project aims, the objectives were to:

• build projections of the populations of ethnic groups for UK local areas
• use the population projection model to explore alternative futures.

The project built a model for projecting the ethnic group populations of UK Local Authorities (LAs), which handles 352 LAs, 16 ethnic groups, 102 ages and 2 sexes. To drive the projections, estimates of the components of ethnic change were prepared for 2001-7. A new method produced UK estimates of ethnic life expectancy, ranging from 82 years for Chinese women to 77 for Pakistani. A future 2% decline in mortality per annum was assumed. Ethnic fertility estimates showed that only Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis had total fertility rates above replacement. Small declines in fertility were forecast. New estimates of the local distribution of immigration were made, using administrative data, because of concerns about official figures. The ethnicity of both immigrants and emigrants for local areas was projected. Estimates were constructed of the ethnic group probabilities for internal in- and out-migration for LAs using 2001 Census data. These probabilities were assumed constant in the future, as migration was stable between 2001 and 2008. Five projections were produced. Two benchmark projections, using constant inputs from 2001-2, forecast the UK population would be 62 and 56 million in 2051.The official projection reports 77 million. The Trend projection, aligned to ONS assumptions projected 78 million for 2051. Using revised assumptions 80 million was projected in a fourth projection. When the model for emigration was changed the projected population was only 71 million. All projections showed ageing and dispersion of ethnic minorities. By 2051 the UK will have a larger, more diverse and integrated population.

For further information about the project, see documentation and the What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios ESRC award page.


Main Topics:

For full details of the individual files (and topics covered) within the study, see documentation files '6777_list_of_files.xlsx' and '6777_fileinformation.pdf' in the Documentation table below.

Users should note that this study is very large - c.8GB. Multiple files have been created for download, according to the type of compilation - benchef, bencher, trendef, uptapef and uptaper (see 6777_fileinformation.pdf for details). To obtain all files contained within the study, users should download all zip files.

This opinion poll, managed and organised by the Directorate-General for Press and Communication, Public Opinion Sector, has been carried out at the request of the Directorate-General for Research. It was conducted in all the Member States of the European Union between 10 May and 15 June 2001 under the general coordination of EORG, in Brussels. This report looks at Europeans' experience and perception of science and technology. It is subdivided into several chapters covering: • Information, interest, knowledge • Values, science, technology • Responsibilities and accountability of scientists • GMOs: an important issue • Levels of confidence • Young people and the scientific vocation crisis • European scientific research. #####The results by volumes are distributed as follows: * Volume A: Countries * Volume AA: Groups of countries * Volume A' (AP): Trends * Volume AA' (AAP): Trends of groups of countries * Volume B: EU/socio-demographics * Volume C: Country/socio-demographics ---- Researchers may also contact GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences: http://www.gesis.org/en/home/