The population of Europe is expected to fall from ***** million in 2023 to just ***** million people by 2100, in the medium-variant scenario provided in this projection. In the scenario where the population declines even further, the population of Europe may fall to as low as ***** million by 2100, while in the high-variant projection, the population will increase to approximately ***** million.

In 2024, Germany was the leading EU country in terms of population, with around 85 million inhabitants. In 2050, approximately 89.2 million people will live in Germany, according to the forecast. See the total EU population figures for more information. The global population The global population is rapidly increasing. Between 1990 and 2015, it increased by around 2 billion people. Furthermore, it is estimated that the global population will have increased by another 1 billion by 2030. Asia is the continent with the largest population, followed by Africa and Europe. In Asia,the two most populous nations worldwide are located, China and India. In 2014, the combined population in China and India alone amounted to more than 2.6 billion people. for comparison, the total population in the whole continent of Europe is at around 741 million people. As of 2014, about 60 percent of the global population was living in Asia, with only approximately 10 percent in Europe and even less in the United States. Europe is the continent with the second-highest life expectancy at birth in the world, only barely surpassed by Northern America. In 2013, the life expectancy at birth in Europe was around 78 years. Stable economies and developing and emerging markets in European countries provide for good living conditions. Seven of the top twenty countries in the world with the largest gross domestic product in 2015 are located in Europe.

The total population in European Union was estimated at 450.4 million people in 2025, according to the latest census figures and projections from Trading Economics. This dataset provides - European Union Population - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This dataset provides values for POPULATION reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

EUROPOP2023 are the latest Eurostat long-term population projections produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland), covering the time horizon from 2022 to 2100. Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. They are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).

The datasets consist of the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, which are described as follows:

• no migration – it is assumed that net migration is zero for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is lower due to a 33% reduction in non-EU immigration flows for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is higher due to a 33% increase in non-EU immigration flows for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower fertility – it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than the baseline assumptions for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower mortality – it is assumed that the mortality rates are lower resulting in an increase of approximately two years in life expectancy at birth by 2070 compared to the baseline assumptions.

In each sensitivity test, the assumptions for the year 2022 were maintained as in the baseline projections. This is because, for that year, there is a combination of observed data (i.e. beneficiaries on temporary protections at the end of December 2022), information from the national authorities, and forecasting.

Data are available by single-year time interval, as detailed below:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, age-specific mortality rates and net migration levels;
• Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.

Additionally, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and each of the five sensitive variants, including also:

• Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators including proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

STP2024 are the short-term population projections covering the time horizon from 2023 to 2050, and produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). Similar to long-term projections, these are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and net migration. The latest demographic data published on Eurostat website, as of 06 September 2024, were used as input in building the assumptions, thereby including the published post-2021 census revisions and data related to the temporary protection granted to persons displaced from Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.

The dataset (proj_stp24) includes data by single-year time interval for two types of projections:

• Baseline projections:
  • Projected total population on 1 January, the working-age population (defined as persons aged from 15 to 74), and its share in the total population;
  • Assumptions on total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, and total net migration levels;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

• No migration sensitivity test – it is assumed that the net migration is zero for each year within the 2024-2050 time horizon.
  • Projected total population on 1 January, the working-age population (defined as persons aged from 15to 74), and its share in the total population;
  • The 2023 net migration levels remain the same as in the baseline projections to reflect the nowcast data;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

STP2025 are the latest short-term population projections covering the time horizon from 2024 to 2050, produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). Similar to long-term projections, these are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. The latest demographic data published on Eurostat website as of 15 May 2025, were used as input in building the assumptions, thereby including the published post-2021 census revisions and data related to temporary protection granted to persons displaced from Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.

The dataset (proj_stp25) includes data by single-year time interval for two types of projections:

• Baseline projections:
  • Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
  • Assumptions on total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, and total net migration levels;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

• No migration sensitivity test – it is assumed that the net migration is zero in each year of the 2025-2050 time horizon.
  • Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
  • The 2024 net migration levels remain as in the baseline projections to reflect the nowcast data;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

This statistic displays the age distribution of Europe in 2020, with forecasts for 2025 and 2050. In 2020, the largest age group in Europe were those aged between 35 and 39, at roughly ** million people. By 2025 however, the largest age group is forecasted to be those aged 40-44 (**** million) and by 2050 those aged 60-64 (**** million).

Whereas the population is expected to decrease somewhat until 2100 in Asia, Europe, and South America, it is predicted to grow significantly in Africa. While there were 1.55 billion inhabitants on the continent at the beginning of 2025, the number of inhabitants is expected to reach 3.81 billion by 2100. In total, the global population is expected to reach nearly 10.18 billion by 2100. Worldwide population In the United States, the total population is expected to steadily increase over the next couple of years. In 2024, Asia held over half of the global population and is expected to have the highest number of people living in urban areas in 2050. Asia is home to the two most populous countries, India and China, both with a population of over one billion people. However, the small country of Monaco had the highest population density worldwide in 2024. Effects of overpopulation Alongside the growing worldwide population, there are negative effects of overpopulation. The increasing population puts a higher pressure on existing resources and contributes to pollution. As the population grows, the demand for food grows, which requires more water, which in turn takes away from the freshwater available. Concurrently, food needs to be transported through different mechanisms, which contributes to air pollution. Not every resource is renewable, meaning the world is using up limited resources that will eventually run out. Furthermore, more species will become extinct which harms the ecosystem and food chain. Overpopulation was considered to be one of the most important environmental issues worldwide in 2020.

EUROPOP2023 are the latest Eurostat long-term population projections produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland), covering the time horizon from 2022 to 2100. Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. They are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).

The datasets consist of the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, which are described as follows:

• no migration – it is assumed that net migration is zero for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is lower due to a 33% reduction in non-EU immigration flows for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is higher due to a 33% increase in non-EU immigration flows for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower fertility – it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than the baseline assumptions for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower mortality – it is assumed that the mortality rates are lower resulting in an increase of approximately two years in life expectancy at birth by 2070 compared to the baseline assumptions.

In each sensitivity test, the assumptions for the year 2022 were maintained as in the baseline projections. This is because, for that year, there is a combination of observed data (i.e. beneficiaries on temporary protections at the end of December 2022), information from the national authorities, and forecasting.

Data are available by single-year time interval, as detailed below:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, age-specific mortality rates and net migration levels;
• Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.

Additionally, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and each of the five sensitive variants, including also:

• Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators including proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

STP2024 are the short-term population projections covering the time horizon from 2023 to 2050, and produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). Similar to long-term projections, these are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and net migration. The latest demographic data published on Eurostat website, as of 06 September 2024, were used as input in building the assumptions, thereby including the published post-2021 census revisions and data related to the temporary protection granted to persons displaced from Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.

The dataset (proj_stp24) includes data by single-year time interval for two types of projections:

• Baseline projections:
  • Projected total population on 1 January, the working-age population (defined as persons aged from 15 to 74), and its share in the total population;
  • Assumptions on total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, and total net migration levels;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

• No migration sensitivity test – it is assumed that the net migration is zero for each year within the 2024-2050 time horizon.
  • Projected total population on 1 January, the working-age population (defined as persons aged from 15to 74), and its share in the total population;
  • The 2023 net migration levels remain the same as in the baseline projections to reflect the nowcast data;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

STP2025 are the latest short-term population projections covering the time horizon from 2024 to 2050, produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). Similar to long-term projections, these are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. The latest demographic data published on Eurostat website as of 15 May 2025, were used as input in building the assumptions, thereby including the published post-2021 census revisions and data related to temporary protection granted to persons displaced from Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.

The dataset (proj_stp25) includes data by single-year time interval for two types of projections:

• Baseline projections:
  • Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
  • Assumptions on total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, and total net migration levels;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

• No migration sensitivity test – it is assumed that the net migration is zero in each year of the 2025-2050 time horizon.
  • Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
  • The 2024 net migration levels remain as in the baseline projections to reflect the nowcast data;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

This European Census dataset covers data on population, fertility, as well as life expectancy in the recent years or projected to 2050. It arranges Europe into 11 types of regions according to different ways of classification.

About the Dataset:

1) Regions : - Western Europe - Eastern Europe - Northern Europe - Southern Europe

2) Birth and Death Rate: are in per 1000 People.

The world's population first reached one billion people in 1805, and reached eight billion in 2022, and will peak at almost 10.2 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two-thirds of the world's population lives in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a few years later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.

EUROPOP2023 are the latest Eurostat long-term population projections produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland), covering the time horizon from 2022 to 2100. Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. They are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).

The datasets consist of the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, which are described as follows:

• no migration – it is assumed that net migration is zero for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is lower due to a 33% reduction in non-EU immigration flows for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is higher due to a 33% increase in non-EU immigration flows for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower fertility – it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than the baseline assumptions for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower mortality – it is assumed that the mortality rates are lower resulting in an increase of approximately two years in life expectancy at birth by 2070 compared to the baseline assumptions.

In each sensitivity test, the assumptions for the year 2022 were maintained as in the baseline projections. This is because, for that year, there is a combination of observed data (i.e. beneficiaries on temporary protections at the end of December 2022), information from the national authorities, and forecasting.

Data are available by single-year time interval, as detailed below:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, age-specific mortality rates and net migration levels;
• Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.

Additionally, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and each of the five sensitive variants, including also:

• Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators including proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

STP2024 are the short-term population projections covering the time horizon from 2023 to 2050, and produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). Similar to long-term projections, these are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and net migration. The latest demographic data published on Eurostat website, as of 06 September 2024, were used as input in building the assumptions, thereby including the published post-2021 census revisions and data related to the temporary protection granted to persons displaced from Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.

The dataset (proj_stp24) includes data by single-year time interval for two types of projections:

• Baseline projections:
  • Projected total population on 1 January, the working-age population (defined as persons aged from 15 to 74), and its share in the total population;
  • Assumptions on total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, and total net migration levels;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

• No migration sensitivity test – it is assumed that the net migration is zero for each year within the 2024-2050 time horizon.
  • Projected total population on 1 January, the working-age population (defined as persons aged from 15to 74), and its share in the total population;
  • The 2023 net migration levels remain the same as in the baseline projections to reflect the nowcast data;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

STP2025 are the latest short-term population projections covering the time horizon from 2024 to 2050, produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). Similar to long-term projections, these are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. The latest demographic data published on Eurostat website as of 15 May 2025, were used as input in building the assumptions, thereby including the published post-2021 census revisions and data related to temporary protection granted to persons displaced from Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.

The dataset (proj_stp25) includes data by single-year time interval for two types of projections:

• Baseline projections:
  • Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
  • Assumptions on total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, and total net migration levels;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

• No migration sensitivity test – it is assumed that the net migration is zero in each year of the 2025-2050 time horizon.
  • Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
  • The 2024 net migration levels remain as in the baseline projections to reflect the nowcast data;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales and nationally for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The datasets include summary workbooks for London boroughs and detailed component of change outputs for all model areas.

The most recent set of trend-based population projections currently available are the 2020-based variant projections (September 2021).

The 2020-based projections comprise 4 principal variants which have been produced using different assumptions about future levels of domestic and international migration. Variant projections have been produced in order to assist users in understanding current uncertainty about future population growth. A full explanation of the differences between these projections is available in the supporting documentation.

Additionally, the trend-based projections also project the future number of households at local authority level by converting the projected population into households. Different sets of trend-based Household projections have been created using both the 2014-based DCLG household projection model and the 2018-based ONS household model so that users can compare the results of using these two different methodologies.

• Documentation page
• Back to projections homepage

The purpose of this data package is to offer essential population statistics about European countries covering static and dynamic demographical indicators. The two current sources of information are the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), from Austria and the U.K. Office for National Statistics.

This European Census dataset covers data on population, fertility, migration, birth and death rates as well as life expectancy in the recent years or projected to 2050.

FUME data on projected distributions of migrants at local level between 2030 and 2050.

The dataset contains a folder of data for each destination city as a gridded dataset at 100m resolution in GeoTIFF format. The examined destination cities are: Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Krakow and Rome. The dataset is provided as 100m grid cells based on the Eurostat GISCO grid of the 2021 NUTS version, using ETRS89 Lambert Azimuthal Equal-Area (EPSG: 3035) as coordinate system. The file names consist of the projected year, the corresponding scenario, and the reference migrant group. The projections have been performed for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050. The investigated scenarios are the following: • benchmark (bs), • baseline (bs), • Rising East (re), • EU Recovery (eur), • Intensifying Global Competition (igc), and • War (war).

The migration background is derived from data about the Region of Origin (RoO) for migrants in Copenhagen and Amsterdam, and from Region of Citizenship (CoC) for migrants in Krakow and Rome.

The case study of Copenhagen covers the two central NUTS3 areas (DK011, DK012) and the groups presented are the following: • total population (totalpop), • native population (DNK), • Eastern EU European migrants (EU_East), • Western EU Europeans migrants (EU_West), • Non-EU European migrants (EurNonEU), • migrants from Turkey (Turkey), • the MENAP countries (MENAP; excluding Turkey), • other non-Western (OthNonWest), and • other Western countries (OthWestern).

The case study of Amsterdam covers one NUTS3 area (NL329) and the presented groups are the following: • total population (totalpop), • native population (NLD), • Eastern EU European migrants (EU East), • Western EU European migrants (EU West), • migrants from Turkey and Morocco (Turkey + Morocco), • migrants from the Middle East and Africa (Middle East + Africa), • migrants from the former colonies (Former Colonies), and • migrants from the rest of the world (Other Europe etc).

The case study of Krakow covers the Municipality of Krakow, and the presented groups are the following: • total population (totalpop), • native population (POL), • EU/EFTA European migrants (EU), • non-EU European migrants (Europe_nonEU), and • migrants from the rest of the world (Other).

The case of Rome covers the Municipality of Rome, and the presented groups are the following: • total population (totalpop), • native population (ITA), • migrants from Romania (ROU), • Philippines (PHL), • Bangladesh (BGD), • the EU (EU; excluding Romania), • Africa (Africa), • Asia (Asia; excluding Philippines and Bangladesh) and • America (America).

This statistic shows the total population of the European Union from 2010 to 2025. The population is based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, or based on population registers. At the beginning of 2025, the total population of the European Union amounted to approximately 450.38 million inhabitants. See figures for the total population by continent here. The global population The global population is rapidly increasing. Between 1990 and 2015, the global population has increased by around 2 billion people, and it is estimated to have increased by another 1 billion people by 2030. Asia is the continent in the world with the largest population, followed by Africa and Europe. Asia has the two most populous nations in the world: China and India. In 2014, the combined population in China and India amounted to more than 2.6 billion people. The total population in Europe is around 741 million people. As of 2014, about 10.2 percent of the global population lived in Europe. Europe is the continent with the second highest life expectancy at birth in the world. Born in 2013, the average European was estimated to live for around 78 years. Stable economies as well as developing and emerging markets in Europe provide for good living conditions for foreign nationals; seven of the top twenty countries in the world with the largest gross domestic product in 2024 are located in Europe.

EUROPOP2019 are the latest Eurostat population projections produced at national and subnational levels for 31 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and four European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries, covering the time horizon from 2019 to 2100.

Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and its structure based on a sets of assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration; they are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).

The datasets at national level are composed by the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, namely:

• no migration – it is assumed that the net migration is set to zero in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is 33% lower than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is 33% higher than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower fertility - it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower mortality - it is assumed that the mortality rates are decreased such that the life expectancy at birth will increase of about two years by 2070 when compared with the baseline assumptions.

Data are available by single year time interval, as follows:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, probabilities of dying and net migration levels;
• Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.

Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the five sensitive variants:

• Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

The dataset at regional level is composed by the baseline population projections and covers all 1169 regions classified as NUTS level 3 corresponding to the NUTS-2016 classification (the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) and the 47 Statistical Regions (SR) agreed between European Commission and EFTA countries. Statistical regions are defined according to principles similar to those used in the establishment of the NUTS classification.

For all 1216 regions NUTS-3 level, data are available by single year time interval as follows:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, probabilities of dying and net migration levels;
• Projected deaths by age and sex;
• Projected life expectancy by age (reached during the year) and sex, which is computed according to the method described in the https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/Annexes/proj_19n_esms_an_24.pdf" target="_self">Technical note - Alternative life table (with annex)

In addition to the baseline projections, datasets on projected population at regional level are available for two sensitivity tests:

• no migration - it is assumed that migration is zero for both international and internal components in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• no inter-regional migration - it is assumed that only internal migration is zero in each year of the entire horizon of projections.

Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the two sensitive variants:

• Total numbers of the projected live births by sex and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

The additional dataset called ‘Short-term update of the projected population (2022-2032)’ [proj_stp22] was published on 28 September 2022. While EUROPOP2019 remain the main set of reference for population projections, this new dataset includes updates of baseline projections for the total population, population in the age group 15 to 74 years (considered as the population in the working-age group), and its share in the total population. In addition, two sensitivity tests are carried out – high and very high number of refugees – by introducing in the baseline projections a shock due to the mass-influx of refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine, and who have received temporary protection in the EU countries.

The updated EUROPOP2019 projections were constructed from cumulative sums of weighted averages of annual population changes of two series: the original EUROPOP2019 projection and a new short-term population projection computed from the latest available data over the period of 10 years.

The two sensitivity tests were built on the following assumptions:

• High number of refugees sensitivity test – assumes that the influx of refugees occurs during 2022 only, and is followed by annual returns at a constant rate such that at the end of 2031 the remaining number of refugees is 10% of the total influx in 2022;
• Very high number of refugees sensitivity test – assumes that the influx of refugees occurs during 2022 and 2023, and is followed by annual returns at a constant rate such that at the end of 2031 the remaining number of refugees is 15% of the cumulated influx in 2022 and 2023.

Please contact author emma.terama@environment.fi for updated article:Terama, E. et al. 2017. Modelling population structure in the context of urban land use change in Europe. Regional Environmental Change (submitted).

And cite the accompanied data as:

Terama, E. 2016. European regional - NUTS2-level - population projections with age structure across SSPs. Database. https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.3806478.v1Age groups (6)

AG1: ages 0...14

AG2: ages 15...29

AG3: ages 30...49

AG4: ages 50...64

AG5: ages 65...74

AG6: ages 75+

Population is given in thousands.

By the end of 2100, the population of Central and Eastern Europe will amount to 187.07 million, a decrease of 43 percent from 2017. If Russia is excluded from the tally, the CEE population will decrease by more than half. Latvia will lose the most population, nearly 80 percent. Russia, on the other hand, will experience the smallest decline (-27 percent).