Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

A time-varying parameter model with Markov-switching conditional heteroscedasticity is employed to investigate two sources of shifts in real interest rates: (1) shifts in the coefficients relating the ex ante real rate to the nominal rate, the inflation rate and a supply shock variable and (2) unconditional shifts in the variance of the stochastic process. The results underscore the importance of modelling continual change in the ex ante real rate in terms of other economic variables rather than relying on a statistical characterization that permits only a limited number of discrete jumps in the mean of the process.

It is argued that univariate long memory estimates based on ex post data tend to underestimate the persistence of ex ante variables (and, hence, that of the ex post variables themselves) because of the presence of unanticipated shocks whose short-run volatility masks the degree of long-range dependence in the data. Empirical estimates of long-range dependence in the Fisher equation are shown to manifest this problem and lead to an apparent imbalance in the memory characteristics of the variables in the Fisher equation. Evidence in support of this typical underestimation is provided by results obtained with inflation forecast survey data and by direct calculation of the finite sample biases. To address the problem of bias, the paper introduces a bivariate exact Whittle (BEW) estimator that explicitly allows for the presence of short memory noise in the data. The new procedure enhances the empirical capacity to separate low-frequency behaviour from high-frequency fluctuations, and it produces estimates of long-range dependence that are much less biased when there is noise contaminated data. Empirical estimates from the BEW method suggest that the three Fisher variables are integrated of the same order, with memory parameter in the range (0.75, 1). Since the integration orders are balanced, the ex ante real rate has the same degree of persistence as expected inflation, thereby furnishing evidence against the existence of a (fractional) cointegrating relation among the Fisher variables and, correspondingly, showing little support for a long-run form of Fisher hypothesis.

We summarize the concept for ex-ante cost estimations for sanitation systems based on mass flows as developed within a Master thesis by Verena Germann in the framework of the GRASP project (Generation and Assessment of Sanitation Systems for Strategic Planning) by Dorothee Spuhler . The supporting information contains some illustrative examples for cost calculations for a set of sanitation systems for different areas in Arba Minch, a small town in Ethiopia.

High interest rate currencies tend to appreciate in the future relative to low interest rate currencies instead of depreciating as uncovered interest parity (UIP) predicts. I construct a model of exchange rate determination in which ambiguity-averse agents face a dynamic filtering problem featuring signals of uncertain precision. Solving a max-min problem, agents act upon a worst-case signal precision and systematically underestimate the hidden state that controls payoffs. Thus, on average, agents next periods perceive positive innovations, which generates an upward re-evaluation of the strategy's profitability and implies ex post departures from UIP. The model also produces predictable expectational errors, negative skewness, and time-series momentum for currency speculation payoffs. (JEL D81, F31, G15)

See Kyoji Fukao, Kim YoungGak, and Kwon Hyeog Ug (2021) "Sources of Growth and Stagnation in the Japanese Economy: An Analysis Based on Data on Listed Firms Spanning More Than Five Decades" (in Japanese), RIETI Discussion Paper Series, No. 21-J-027. The article presents growth accounting and an analysis of productivity dynamics (as measured by labor productivity and total factor productivity, TFP) covering almost all listed firms in Japan spanning the 55-year period from 1960 to 2015 using the Development Bank of Japan's "Corporate Financial Databank" on listed firms. The Long-run Database on Japanese Listed Companies' Productivity 2021 (JLCP 2021) provides company-level data prepared for the above article. The database comprises, for the period from 1960 to 2015, various types of annual data necessary for estimating the total factor productivity (TFP) of almost all listed companies in Japan, including gross output, intermediate input, real capital stock, labor input, the cost share of capital input (ex ante basis, estimated from interest rates, the rate of capital depreciation, investment goods prices, etc.), the cost share of labor input, the cost share of intermediate input, as well as estimates of TFP growth rates. From the the data, it is possible to derive other important variables. Dividing intermediate input by the cost share of intermediate inputs yields total production costs. Dividing gross output by total production costs and subtracting one from the result yields the average markup rate. Multiplying total production costs by the cost share of labor input yields labor costs. Finally, subtracting intermediate input and labor costs from total production costs yields the operating surplus (ex post cost of capital). Values are in 2000 prices and the unit is million yen. The data are on an unconsolidated basis. For more details on the estimation procedures, see the above article.

Abstract of associated article: I show theoretically that applying the model of Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) to a simple purchasing decision where consumers are ex ante uncertain about the price realisation, gives – when changing the underlying distribution of expected prices – rise to counterintuitive predictions in contrast with a “good deal model” where consumers are predicted to be disappointed (rejoice) when the realised price is perceived as being worse (better) than the other possible realisation. While the underlying ideas of both models are similar with respect to expectation-based reference points, the different results come from the concept of Personal Equilibrium in Kőszegi and Rabin (2006). The experimental results show some support for the simpler good deal model for a number of different real consumption goods though the support is weaker for goods that either have a salient market price or no market price outside of the experiment.

This table shows indices and percentage changes in the terms of trade, import price and export price of goods. It concerns the import and export of goods on the basis of transfer of ownership. The indices are based on 2015=100. The percentage developments are compared to the same period a year earlier.

Data available from 1995.

Status of figures: Data from 1995 to 2020 are final. Data for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 are provisional.

Changes as of 14 June 2024: Figures for April 2024 have been added. The figures for January to March 2024 have been revised.

The terms of trade, import and export price figures may be adjusted on the basis of the availability of new or updated source material from the monthly statistics on international trade and producer prices. In addition, monthly price developments are adjusted ex post to those of imports and exports of goods in the quarterly and national accounts. A revision of the national accounts takes place every five years.

When will there be new figures? Approximately six to seven weeks after the end of a reporting month.

The uploaded file ("OfM_I4A.mat", standing for "Output from Model - Input for Appraisal") is a Saved Workspace (in Matlab environment) containing as variables all the results and intermediate variables (along with the initial input data values) obtained from the computation of a transport model specifically developed for the forecasting of the effects that would be generated by the hypothetical introduction ― into a corridor, axis or route with given characteristics ― of each one of the two main types of urban and metropolitan middle-capacity transit systems. Such effects are quantitatively reflected in the model by a set of variables indicative, among many others, of trip volumes and travel conditions. For this analysis, the two main classes of middle-capacity transit systems are the light rail modes (LRT and/or modern tramway) and the bus semirapid transit (BST) systems with exclusive right-of-way, commonly termed also as BHLS (Bus with High Level of Service) or BRT (Bus Rapid Transit).

The results contained in the file "OfM_I4A.mat" come from applying the model to a hypothetical case study that is based on a set of artificial data specially designed to be illustrative of fairly usual conditions in corridors, axes or routes with intermediate volumes of public transit demand. The code developed to compute de model, including the complete set of data used for this artificial case study, is also available through https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10500901

The values included in the uploaded file might be taken as input dataset for the subsequent application of a quantitative assessment method, such as Cost-Benefit Analysis, in order to evaluate and finally select one of those two alternative medium-capacity transit sistems (Light Rail or Bus Semirapid Transit) in this case study or in others as much as they be similar enough.

How do movements in the distributions of bank size and income affect the macroeconomy?To answer this question we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with heteroge-neous financial intermediaries, incomplete markets, and aggregate uncertainty. We find that market incompleteness and uninsured idiosyncratic bank rate of return risk generate minimal concentration in the bank net worth distribution, leading to an “as-if” result, whereby the economy behaves as if it had a representative bank. However, introducing ex-ante hetero-geneity in the banks’ rates of return significantly raises concentration and amplifies real and financial fluctuations relative to the representative-bank case, as this increases a key suffi-cient statistic, the average marginal propensity to lend. We then extend the model with two empirically-validated features of the banking sector—countercyclical return risk and deposit market power—and show that these amplify and dampen aggregate fluctuations, respec-tively. Finally, because in the model with ex-ante heterogeneity the distribution of bank size is highly concentrated, shocks to the largest banks can account for almost all of the aggregate variation that is due to idiosyncratic risk, leading to granular banking and economic cycles. The failure of granular banks (“too big to fail”) produces sizeable macroeconomic crises.

Economic analysis of a project can be divided into a micro and macro-economic analysis. In the former, the analysis is limited to the monetary costs and benefits directly attributable to the project. This type of analysis also known as a financial analysis. On the other hand, a macro-economic analysis encompasses a much larger, and often much difficult to quantify, variables which are not readily attributable(at least at the first glance) to a projectis existence.A fmancial analysis is usually used to determine a projectis feasibility when the proposed project is a (monetary) one. On the other hand, when the societyis welfare is what matter most, a macro-economic analysis is the more appropriate tool to judge a project feasibility. Such scope differences between micro and macro-economic analysis often results in, but not always, conflicting conclusions for a project. ideal project should give a similarmicro and macro-economicconclusions. This paper tries to show how such macro-economic analysis is done to the Lahendong geothermal research project in Indonesia

The two data sets are used for estimating all findings found in the paper.