Effective September 27, 2023, this dataset will no longer be updated. Similar data are accessible from wonder.cdc.gov. Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected. Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.

It is estimated that from 2020 to 2021, the mean rate of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes was highest in Peru. In 2020-2021, there were around 437 excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic per 100,000 population in Peru. This statistic shows the mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes in 2020-2021 in select countries worldwide, per 100,000 population.

Daily updates of Covid-19 Global Excess Deaths from the Economist's GitHub repository: https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model

Interpreting estimates

Estimating excess deaths for every country every day since the pandemic began is a complex and difficult task. Rather than being overly confident in a single number, limited data means that we can often only give a very very wide range of plausible values. Focusing on central estimates in such cases would be misleading: unless ranges are very narrow, the 95% range should be reported when possible. The ranges assume that the conditions for bootstrap confidence intervals are met. Please see our tracker page and methodology for more information.

New variants

The Omicron variant, first detected in southern Africa in November 2021, appears to have characteristics that are different to earlier versions of sars-cov-2. Where this variant is now dominant, this change makes estimates uncertain beyond the ranges indicated. Other new variants may do the same. As more data is incorporated from places where new variants are dominant, predictions improve.

Non-reporting countries

Turkmenistan and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have not reported any covid-19 figures since the start of the pandemic. They also have not published all-cause mortality data. Exports of estimates for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have been temporarily disabled as it now issues contradictory data: reporting a significant outbreak through its state media, but zero confirmed covid-19 cases/deaths to the WHO.

Acknowledgements

A special thanks to all our sources and to those who have made the data to create these estimates available. We list all our sources in our methodology. Within script 1, the source for each variable is also given as the data is loaded, with the exception of our sources for excess deaths data, which we detail in on our free-to-read excess deaths tracker as well as on GitHub. The gradient booster implementation used to fit the models is aGTBoost, detailed here.

Calculating excess deaths for the entire world over multiple years is both complex and imprecise. We welcome any suggestions on how to improve the model, be it data, algorithm, or logic. If you have one, please open an issue.

The Economist would also like to acknowledge the many people who have helped us refine the model so far, be it through discussions, facilitating data access, or offering coding assistance. A special thanks to Ariel Karlinsky, Philip Schellekens, Oliver Watson, Lukas Appelhans, Berent Å. S. Lunde, Gideon Wakefield, Johannes Hunger, Carol D'Souza, Yun Wei, Mehran Hosseini, Samantha Dolan, Mollie Van Gordon, Rahul Arora, Austin Teda Atmaja, Dirk Eddelbuettel and Tom Wenseleers.

All coding and data collection to construct these models (and make them update dynamically) was done by Sondre Ulvund Solstad. Should you have any questions about them after reading the methodology, please open an issue or contact him at sondresolstad@economist.com.

Suggested citation The Economist and Solstad, S. (corresponding author), 2021. The pandemic’s true death toll. [online] The Economist. Available at: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates [Accessed ---]. First published in the article "Counting the dead", The Economist, issue 20, 2021.

It is estimated that by the end of 2021 the COVID-19 pandemic had caused around 932,458 excess deaths in the United States. This statistic shows the cumulative mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in 2020-2021, by month.

Provisional data on excess mortality (excluding COVID-19) during heat-periods in the 65 years and over age group estimates in England, including the estimated number of deaths where the death occurred within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 result and the mean central England temperature.

Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data was reported at 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1,195.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data is updated weekly, averaging 1,195.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

The monthly excess mortality indicator is based on the exceptional data collection on weekly deaths that Eurostat and the National Statistical Institutes set up, in April 2020, in order to support the policy and research efforts related to the COVID-19 pandemic. With that data collection, Eurostat's target was to provide quickly statistics assessing the changing situation of the total number of deaths on a weekly basis, from early 2020 onwards.

The National Statistical Institutes transmit available data on total weekly deaths, classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS3 regions (NUTS2021) over the last 20 years, on a voluntary basis. The resulting online tables, and complementary metadata, are available in the folder Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk).

Starting in 2025, the weekly deaths data collected on a quarterly basis. The database updated on the 16th of June 2025 (1st quarter), on the 16 th of September 2025 (2nd quarter), and next update will be in mid-December 2025 (3rd quarter), and mid-February 2026 (4th quarter).

In December 2020, Eurostat released the European Recovery Statistical Dashboard containing also indicators tracking economic and social developments, including health. In this context, “excess mortality” offers elements for monitoring and further analysing direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The monthly excess mortality indicator draws attention to the magnitude of the crisis by providing a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths amongst the European countries and allowing for further analysis of its causes. The number of deaths from all causes is compared with the expected number of deaths during a certain period in the past (baseline period, 2016-2019).

The reasons that excess mortality may vary according to different phenomena are that the indicator is comparing the total number of deaths from all causes with the expected number of deaths during a certain period in the past (baseline). While a substantial increase largely coincides with a COVID-19 outbreak in each country, the indicator does not make a distinction between causes of death. Similarly, it does not take into account changes over time and differences between countries in terms of the size and age/sex structure of the population Statistics on excess deaths provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, thereby covering not only deaths that are directly attributed to the virus but also those indirectly related to or even due to another reason. For example, In July 2022, several countries recorded unusually high numbers of excess deaths compared to the same month of 2020 and 2021, a situation probably connected not only to COVID-19 but also to the heatwaves that affected parts of Europe during the reference period.

In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality captures COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported, as well as deaths from other causes that may be attributed to the overall crisis. It also accounts for the partial absence of deaths from other causes like accidents that did not occur due, for example, to the limitations in commuting or travel during the lockdown periods.

In 2020, the U.S. had the highest COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rate among non-elderly people compared to other peer countries. “Excess deaths” represent the number of deaths beyond what is expected in a typical year. This measure illustrates the mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This statistic presents the COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rate in the U.S. and select countries in 2020, by age group (per 100,000 people in age group).

Context

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19.

Content

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by the jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.

Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.

• Source: data.cdc.gov
• Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, cdc.gov
• Homepage URL: https://data.cdc.gov/d/xkkf-xrst
• License: https://www.usa.gov/government-works
• Contact Email: cdcinfo@cdc.gov
• Public Access Level: Public

Additional information

Dashboard: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/kabartay/kaggle-datasets-supports/master/images/WeeklyExcessDeaths.png%20=1349x572" alt="">

Acknowledgements

Thanks to:
- data.cdc.gov - healthdata.gov

References

• Noufaily A, Enki DG, Farrington P, Garthwaite P, Andrews N, Charlett A. An Improved Algorithm for Outbreak Detection in Multiple Surveillance Systems. Statistics in Medicine 2012;32(7):1206-1222.
• Salmon M, Schumacher D, Hohle M. Monitoring Count Time Series in R: Aberration Detection in Public Health Surveillance. Journal of Statistical Software 2016;70(10):1-35.
• Rue H, Martino S, Chopin N. Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models using integrated nested Laplace approximations (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 2009;71(2):319-392.
• Spencer MR, Ahmad F. Timeliness of death certificate data for mortality surveillance and provisional estimates. National Center for Health Statistics. 2016. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/report001.pdf.pdf icon

It is estimated that by the end of 2021 the COVID-19 pandemic had caused around 14.9 million excess deaths worldwide. South-East Asia accounted for the highest number of these deaths with about 5.99 million excess deaths due to the pandemic. This statistic shows the cumulative mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide as of the end of 2021, by region.

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected. Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.

Number of excess deaths, including deaths due to coronavirus (COVID-19) and due to other causes. Including breakdowns by age, sex and geography.

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 209.000 Number in 13 Jan 2018 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

Understanding Global Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Insights from The Economist Data

The COVID-19 pandemic has left an indelible mark on societies worldwide, not only through its direct impact on health but also through its ripple effects on various aspects of life. As we strive to comprehend the full extent of its toll, one crucial metric that emerges is excess deaths – a measure encompassing not only confirmed COVID-19 fatalities but also those indirectly caused by the pandemic. In this discourse, we delve into the comprehensive dataset provided by The Economist and processed by Our World in Data, shedding light on the central estimates and uncertainty intervals of global excess deaths.

The dataset, meticulously compiled and analyzed by The Economist, serves as a cornerstone for understanding the broader implications of the pandemic beyond official death counts. This invaluable resource, available for public scrutiny and further research, offers insights into the nuanced dynamics of excess mortality across different regions and timeframes.

Central to our exploration are the central estimates provided by The Economist, representing the best approximation of excess deaths attributable to the pandemic. These figures, derived through rigorous statistical methodologies, provide a foundational understanding of the pandemic's impact on mortality rates globally. By accounting for excess deaths beyond what would typically be expected, these estimates paint a clearer picture of the true toll of COVID-19.

Accompanying these central estimates are uncertainty intervals, reflecting the range within which the true value of excess deaths is likely to fall. As with any statistical analysis, uncertainties abound, stemming from various factors such as data collection methods, reporting inconsistencies, and the inherent complexity of modeling excess mortality. Acknowledging these uncertainties is paramount in interpreting the data accurately and avoiding overgeneralizations or misinterpretations.

Delving deeper into the dataset, it becomes evident that the magnitude of excess deaths varies significantly across different regions and time periods. Factors such as healthcare infrastructure, socio-economic disparities, and the stringency of public health measures exert profound influences on mortality outcomes. By dissecting these variations, policymakers and public health experts can glean invaluable insights to inform targeted interventions and mitigate future crises.

Moreover, the dataset underscores the interconnectedness of global health, highlighting how the impact of the pandemic transcends geographical boundaries. As nations grapple with containing the spread of the virus within their borders, the ripple effects of excess mortality reverberate across the international community. This interconnectedness underscores the importance of collective action and solidarity in addressing not only the immediate challenges posed by the pandemic but also the long-term ramifications on global health security.

It is essential to note that behind every data point lies a human story – a life lost, a family shattered, a community grieving. Amidst the statistical analyses and epidemiological models, it is imperative not to lose sight of the human dimension of the pandemic. Each excess death represents more than just a number; it embodies a profound loss and underscores the urgency of concerted efforts to prevent further tragedies.

In conclusion, the dataset provided by The Economist and processed by Our World in Data offers a comprehensive lens through which to understand the complexities of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. By interrogating the central estimates and uncertainty intervals, we gain critical insights into the multifaceted dimensions of the pandemic's impact on global mortality rates. Moving forward, leveraging these insights to inform evidence-based policies and interventions is paramount in mitigating the ongoing crisis and building resilient health systems for the future.

The actions of Public Health France

Public Health France’s mission is to improve and protect the health of populations. During the health crisis linked to the COVID-19 epidemic, Public Health France is responsible for monitoring and understanding the dynamics of the epidemic, anticipating the various scenarios and implementing actions to prevent and limit the transmission of this virus on the national territory.

Description of the dataset

This dataset describes the level of standardised excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak, at the departmental and regional level.

The level of excess mortality is described for two age categories: — for all ages; — for persons over 65 years of age.

Method of calculating levels

The data are derived from the administrative part of the death certificate, collected by the civil registry offices of the municipalities having a dematerialised transmission with INSEE. The observed number of deaths is compared to an expected number, estimated from a statistical model established by the EuroMomo consortium and used by 24 countries or regions in Europe.

The estimation of excess deaths is based on the calculation of a standardised indicator (Z-score), which makes it possible to compare excesses between different geographical levels or age groups.

The Z-score is calculated by the formula: (observed number — expected number)/standard deviation of expected number.

The five categories of excess are defined as follows: — No excess: standardised Death Indicator (Z-score) < 2 — Moderate excess of death: standardised Death Indicator (Z-score) between 2 and 4.99 — High excess of death: standardised Death Indicator (Z-score) between 5 and 6.99: — Very high excess of death: standardised Death Indicator (Z-score) between 7 and 11.99: Exceptional excess of standardised death indicator of death (Z-score) greater than 12

Limits of the calculation method

The estimated excesses are established on a set of 3000 municipalities for which Santé publique France has a long history of data. These 3000 municipalities account for 77 % of national mortality, varying from 63 % to 96 % depending on the regions and from 42 % to 98 % depending on the departments.

Taking into account the legal deadlines for declaring a death to civil status and the time taken by the civil registry office to enter the information, a period between the occurrence of the death and the arrival of the information at Santé publique France is observed. This period can be extended punctually (public holidays, extended weekends, bridges, school holidays, very strong epidemic period, confinement). Mortality data are considered consolidated within 30 days.

The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for years 2020 and 2021 by country and month for each of the 194 WHO members states.

Content

This data represents excess deaths in an area (more deaths than expected). Although causes are recorded, one can see that excess deaths increased dramatically in 2020.

Acknowledgements

Original Source: https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/excess-deaths-associated-with-covid-19-35b8c

Inspiration

Using the Excess Death counts, make predictions, per day, as to what the hospital case load, and death load, for covid cases will be. Can use any source (local, federal, international) as the benchmark.

In 2020, COVID-19 deaths accounted for a majority of all excess deaths in the U.S. across all age groups. This share increased with age, so that COVID-19 deaths attributed to more than two-thirds of excess deaths among those 75 years and older. This statistic illustrates COVID-19 deaths as share of excess deaths in the U.S. in 2020, by age group.