In 2020, the U.S. had the highest COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rate among non-elderly people compared to other peer countries. “Excess deaths” represent the number of deaths beyond what is expected in a typical year. This measure illustrates the mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This statistic presents the COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rate in the U.S. and select countries in 2020, by age group (per 100,000 people in age group).

Effective September 27, 2023, this dataset will no longer be updated. Similar data are accessible from wonder.cdc.gov. Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected. Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.

As of March 10, 2023, the death rate from COVID-19 in the state of New York was 397 per 100,000 people. New York is one of the states with the highest number of COVID-19 cases.

Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data was reported at 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1,195.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data is updated weekly, averaging 1,195.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

In 2020, the highest COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rate was among older Hispanics. “Excess deaths” represent the number of deaths beyond what is expected in a typical year. This measure illustrates the mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This statistic presents COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rates in the U.S. in 2020, by age group and ethnicity.

Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Arkansas data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Arkansas data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 93.000 Number in 07 Aug 2021 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Arkansas data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

It is estimated that by the end of 2021 the COVID-19 pandemic had caused around 932,458 excess deaths in the United States. This statistic shows the cumulative mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in 2020-2021, by month.

Replication materials for "Excess Mortality in U.S. Prisons During the COVID-19 Pandemic." 2023. Science Advances.

It is estimated that from 2020 to 2021, the mean rate of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes was highest in Peru. In 2020-2021, there were around 437 excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic per 100,000 population in Peru. This statistic shows the mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes in 2020-2021 in select countries worldwide, per 100,000 population.

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data was reported at 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 20,737.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data is updated weekly, averaging 20,737.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

In 2020, COVID-19 deaths accounted for a majority of all excess deaths in the U.S. across all age groups. This share increased with age, so that COVID-19 deaths attributed to more than two-thirds of excess deaths among those 75 years and older. This statistic illustrates COVID-19 deaths as share of excess deaths in the U.S. in 2020, by age group.

BackgroundWe aimed to determine the trend of TB-related deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsTB-related mortality data of decedents aged ≥25 years from 2006 to 2021 were analyzed. Excess deaths were estimated by determining the difference between observed and projected mortality rates during the pandemic.ResultsA total of 18,628 TB-related deaths were documented from 2006 to 2021. TB-related age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were 0.51 in 2020 and 0.52 in 2021, corresponding to an excess mortality of 10.22 and 9.19%, respectively. Female patients with TB demonstrated a higher relative increase in mortality (26.33 vs. 2.17% in 2020; 21.48 vs. 3.23% in 2021) when compared to male. Female aged 45–64 years old showed a surge in mortality, with an annual percent change (APC) of −2.2% pre-pandemic to 22.8% (95% CI: −1.7 to 68.7%) during the pandemic, corresponding to excess mortalities of 62.165 and 99.16% in 2020 and 2021, respectively; these excess mortality rates were higher than those observed in the overall female population ages 45–64 years in 2020 (17.53%) and 2021 (33.79%).ConclusionThe steady decline in TB-related mortality in the United States has been reversed by COVID-19. Female with TB were disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

Daily updates of Covid-19 Global Excess Deaths from the Economist's GitHub repository: https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model

Interpreting estimates

Estimating excess deaths for every country every day since the pandemic began is a complex and difficult task. Rather than being overly confident in a single number, limited data means that we can often only give a very very wide range of plausible values. Focusing on central estimates in such cases would be misleading: unless ranges are very narrow, the 95% range should be reported when possible. The ranges assume that the conditions for bootstrap confidence intervals are met. Please see our tracker page and methodology for more information.

New variants

The Omicron variant, first detected in southern Africa in November 2021, appears to have characteristics that are different to earlier versions of sars-cov-2. Where this variant is now dominant, this change makes estimates uncertain beyond the ranges indicated. Other new variants may do the same. As more data is incorporated from places where new variants are dominant, predictions improve.

Non-reporting countries

Turkmenistan and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have not reported any covid-19 figures since the start of the pandemic. They also have not published all-cause mortality data. Exports of estimates for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have been temporarily disabled as it now issues contradictory data: reporting a significant outbreak through its state media, but zero confirmed covid-19 cases/deaths to the WHO.

Acknowledgements

A special thanks to all our sources and to those who have made the data to create these estimates available. We list all our sources in our methodology. Within script 1, the source for each variable is also given as the data is loaded, with the exception of our sources for excess deaths data, which we detail in on our free-to-read excess deaths tracker as well as on GitHub. The gradient booster implementation used to fit the models is aGTBoost, detailed here.

Calculating excess deaths for the entire world over multiple years is both complex and imprecise. We welcome any suggestions on how to improve the model, be it data, algorithm, or logic. If you have one, please open an issue.

The Economist would also like to acknowledge the many people who have helped us refine the model so far, be it through discussions, facilitating data access, or offering coding assistance. A special thanks to Ariel Karlinsky, Philip Schellekens, Oliver Watson, Lukas Appelhans, Berent Å. S. Lunde, Gideon Wakefield, Johannes Hunger, Carol D'Souza, Yun Wei, Mehran Hosseini, Samantha Dolan, Mollie Van Gordon, Rahul Arora, Austin Teda Atmaja, Dirk Eddelbuettel and Tom Wenseleers.

All coding and data collection to construct these models (and make them update dynamically) was done by Sondre Ulvund Solstad. Should you have any questions about them after reading the methodology, please open an issue or contact him at sondresolstad@economist.com.

Suggested citation The Economist and Solstad, S. (corresponding author), 2021. The pandemic’s true death toll. [online] The Economist. Available at: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates [Accessed ---]. First published in the article "Counting the dead", The Economist, issue 20, 2021.

Content

This data represents excess deaths in an area (more deaths than expected). Although causes are recorded, one can see that excess deaths increased dramatically in 2020.

Acknowledgements

Original Source: https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/excess-deaths-associated-with-covid-19-35b8c

Inspiration

Using the Excess Death counts, make predictions, per day, as to what the hospital case load, and death load, for covid cases will be. Can use any source (local, federal, international) as the benchmark.

This dataset represents preliminary estimates of cumulative U.S. COVID-19 disease burden for the 2024-2025 period, including illnesses, outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths. The weekly COVID-19-associated burden estimates are preliminary and based on continuously collected surveillance data from patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. The data come from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET), a surveillance platform that captures data from hospitals that serve about 10% of the U.S. population. Each week CDC estimates a range (i.e., lower estimate and an upper estimate) of COVID-19 -associated burden that have occurred since October 1, 2024.

Note: Data are preliminary and subject to change as more data become available. Rates for recent COVID-19-associated hospital admissions are subject to reporting delays; as new data are received each week, previous rates are updated accordingly.

References

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2. Rolfes, MA, Foppa, IM, Garg, S, et al. Annual estimates of the burden of seasonal influenza in the United States: A tool for strengthening influenza surveillance and preparedness. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2018; 12: 132– 137. https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12486
3. Tokars JI, Rolfes MA, Foppa IM, Reed C. An evaluation and update of methods for estimating the number of influenza cases averted by vaccination in the United States. Vaccine. 2018;36(48):7331-7337. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.10.026 
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United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Maine data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Maine data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 54.000 Number in 06 Nov 2021 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Estimate: Maine data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 209.000 Number in 13 Jan 2018 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

Annual estimates of excess mortality in the United States (deaths from all causes, deaths involving Covid-19 and all other deaths), 2017 to 2021.