Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

United Kingdom Shop Price Expectation: Change: Median: Next 12 Mths data was reported at 3.200 % in Nov 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.000 % for Aug 2018. United Kingdom Shop Price Expectation: Change: Median: Next 12 Mths data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.500 % from Nov 1999 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 77 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.400 % in Aug 2008 and a record low of 1.500 % in Nov 1999. United Kingdom Shop Price Expectation: Change: Median: Next 12 Mths data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of England. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.I050: Inflation Attitude Survey: Bank of England, GfK NOP.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

BOE Forecast: Bank Rate data was reported at 1.100 % in Mar 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.400 % for Dec 2021. BOE Forecast: Bank Rate data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.900 % from Dec 2008 (Median) to Mar 2022, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.300 % in Dec 2008 and a record low of 0.200 % in Sep 2017. BOE Forecast: Bank Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of England. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.M003: Bank Rate: Forecast.

Based on an "illustrative scenario" in which the United Kingdom (UK) moves to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union (EU) on the 1st of January 2021, this forecast shows the expected annual average bank base interest rate in response to the current Covid-19 pandemic. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the Covid-19 virus, on the 19th of March 2020 the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate to a record low of 0.1 percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from 0.75 percent to 0.25 percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. In the current forecast scenario, bank interest rates are set to stay between 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent up to 2022.

In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

United Kingdom Credit Cond: SL: N3: HH: CA: Factor: House Prices Expectations data was reported at 0.000 % Point in Sep 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -0.800 % Point for Jun 2018. United Kingdom Credit Cond: SL: N3: HH: CA: Factor: House Prices Expectations data is updated quarterly, averaging -0.300 % Point from Mar 2008 (Median) to Sep 2018, with 43 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 21.300 % Point in Dec 2015 and a record low of -69.200 % Point in Jun 2008. United Kingdom Credit Cond: SL: N3: HH: CA: Factor: House Prices Expectations data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of England. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.KB017: Credit Conditions Survey: Secured Lending: Next 3 Months.

Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom increased to 3.60 percent in June from 3.40 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Over the last two observations, the value of deposits is forecast to significantly increase in all segments. Concerning the three selected segments, the segment Retail & Commercial Banking has the largest value of deposits with **** trillion U.S. dollars. Contrastingly, Traditional Banks is ranked last, with **** trillion U.S. dollars. Their difference, compared to Retail & Commercial Banking, lies at **** trillion U.S. dollars. Find further statistics on other topics such as a comparison of the net interest income in the United Kingdom and a comparison of the value of loans in the United States.The Statista Market Insights cover a broad range of additional markets.

Traditional banks in the United Kingdom (UK) had a much higher interest income than digital banks in 2024. According to Statista Financial Market Insights, the net interest income of the traditional banking industry in the UK amounted to roughly ****** billion U.S. dollars. In contrast, digital banks had a net interest income of ****** billion U.S. dollars. However, according to Statista, the net interest income of traditional banks will decrease in the following years, while digital banks' will increase.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by *** percent and is expected to grow by just *** percent in 2025 and by *** percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to *** percent in 2027, and then grow by ***, and *** percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge *** percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by *** percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the *** percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from *** percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of *** percent predicated, up from *** percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be *** percent instead of *** percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by *** percent in Q3 and by *** percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.

Key information about United Kingdom Total Deposit Growth

• United Kingdom Total Deposit Growth was reported at 4.8 % in Jan 2025
• This records an increase from the previous number of 2.2 % for Dec 2024
• UK Total Deposit Growth data is updated monthly, averaging 2.7 % from Jul 2010 to Jan 2025, with 175 observations
• The data reached an all-time high of 12.4 % in Dec 2020 and a record low of -4.8 % in Feb 2015
• UK Total Deposit Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Global Economic Monitor – Table: Total Deposits: Y-o-Y Growth: Monthly

Key information about United Kingdom Long Term Interest Rate

• United Kingdom Long Term Interest Rate: Month Avg: United Kingdom: ECB Harmonised was reported at 4.52 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 4.67 % pa in the previous month.
• UK Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1993 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 8.99 % pa in Sep 1994 and a record low of 0.15 % pa in Jul 2020.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by CEIC Data.

• In the latest reports, UK Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: ICE LIBOR: 3 Months was reported at 0.09 % pa in Apr 2021.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Base Rate) was set at 4.50 % pa in Feb 2025.
• UK Exchange Rate against USD averaged 0.79 (USD/GBP) in Jun 2023.