From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to two percent by June 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

Graph and download economic data for ECB Deposit Facility Rate for Euro Area (ECBDFR) from 1999-01-01 to 2025-09-01 about overnight, Euro Area, deposits, Europe, and rate.

Graph and download economic data for Central Bank Assets for Euro Area (11-19 Countries) (ECBASSETSW) from 1999-01-01 to 2025-08-22 about central bank, Euro Area, Europe, assets, banks, and depository institutions.

ECB and FED Speeches

This data contains speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (FED) executives, from 1996 to 2025.

  Mistral OCR

In addition to the text provided by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), we also added a new textual column derived extracting information from the source PDF files using Mistral's OCR API. Page breaks are identified with the

---[PAGE_BREAK]---

string.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data and charts presented in Central banks and policy communication: How emerging markets have outperformed the Fed and ECB, PIIE Working Paper 23-10.

If you use the data, please cite as: Evdokimova, Tatiana, Piroska Nagy Mohácsi, Olga Ponomarenko, and Elina Ribakova. 2023. Central banks and policy communication: How emerging markets have outperformed the Fed and ECB. PIIE Working Paper 23-10. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Graph and download economic data for ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate: Fixed Rate Tenders for Euro Area (ECBMRRFR) from 1999-01-01 to 2025-09-02 about operating, liquidity, Euro Area, fixed, Europe, and rate.

European Union central banks navigated a complex economic landscape between 2022 and 2025, with interest rates initially rising across member states. However, a pivotal shift occurred in late 2023 as most countries began lowering their rates, reflecting the delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. In the Euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) led this trend by cutting interest rates from 4.5 percent to 3.15 percent in 2024, implementing four strategic rate reductions throughout the year. This approach was nearly universally adopted, with Poland being the sole EU country not reducing its rates during this period. The ECB continued the series of reductions in the first half of 2025, setting the rate at 2.15 percent in June 2025. Global context and policy shifts The interest rate changes in the EU mirror similar movements in other major economies. The United States, United Kingdom, and European Union central banks followed remarkably similar patterns from 2003 to 2024, responding to shared global economic conditions. After maintaining near-zero rates following the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, these institutions sharply raised rates in 2022 to combat surging inflation. By mid-2024, the European Central Bank and Bank of England initiated rate cuts, with the Federal Reserve following suit. Varied approaches within the EU Despite the overall trend, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies. Hungary, for instance, set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by September 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented the most aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to two percent by June 2025, the lowest among EU members. These divergent approaches highlight the unique economic challenges faced by each country and the flexibility required in monetary policy to address specific national circumstances.

In June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) began reducing its fixed interest rate for the first time since 2016, implementing a series of cuts. The rate decreased from 4.5 percent to 3.15 percent by year-end: a 0.25 percentage point cut in June, followed by additional reductions in September, October, and December. The central bank implemented other cuts in the first half of 2025, setting the rate at 2.15 percent in June 2025. This marked a significant shift from the previous rate hike cycle, which began in July 2022 when the ECB raised rates to 0.5 percent and subsequently increased them almost monthly, reaching 4.5 percent by December 2023 - the highest level since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. How does this ensure liquidity? Banks typically hold only a fraction of their capital in cash, measured by metrics like the Tier 1 capital ratio. Since this ratio is low, banks prefer to allocate most of their capital to revenue-generating loans. When their cash reserves fall too low, banks borrow from the ECB to cover short-term liquidity needs. On the other hand, commercial banks can also deposit excess funds with the ECB at a lower interest rate. Reasons for fluctuations
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability. The Euro area inflation rate is, in theory, the key indicator guiding the ECB's actions. When the fixed interest rate is lower, commercial banks are more likely to borrow from the ECB, increasing the money supply and, in turn, driving inflation higher. When inflation rises, the ECB increases the fixed interest rate, which slows borrowing and helps to reduce inflation.

Graph and download economic data for ECB Marginal Lending Facility Rate for Euro Area (ECBMLFR) from 1999-01-01 to 2025-09-01 about margin, overnight, Euro Area, Europe, loans, and rate.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Euro Short-Term Rate: Number of Active Banks (ECBESTRNUMACTBANKS) from 2019-10-01 to 2025-09-01 about volume, interbank, Euro Area, and Europe.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

Graph and download economic data for Euro Short-Term Rate: Number of Transactions (ECBESTRNUMTRANS) from 2019-10-01 to 2025-08-28 about interbank, Euro Area, Europe, banks, and depository institutions.

In June 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In the first half of 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.1 percent in June 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.4 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Fed, ECB, and BoE to Pause Rate Hikes Amid Recession Fears

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

Graph and download economic data for Euro Short-Term Rate: Rate at 25th Percentile of Volume (ECBESTRRT25THPCTVOL) from 2019-10-01 to 2025-09-01 about interbank, Euro Area, transactions, and Europe.

The data includes the Atlas.ti files showing the original coding of parliamentary hearings, as well as the output files supporting the figures in the article (in Excel format) v1 = disaggregated response v2 = responses grouped by category

International journal of central banking FAQ - ResearchHelpDesk - International journal of central banking - In July 2004, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the European Central Bank, and each of the Group of Ten* (G-10) central banks announced their plans to support the development of a new publication focused on central bank theory and practice. Other central banks were invited to participate in this joint project, and there are now 55 sponsoring institutions. From its initiation, the sponsors were committed to ensuring that the International Journal of Central Banking (IJCB) offer peer-reviewed articles of high analytical quality for a professional audience. The primary objectives of the IJCB are to widely disseminate the best policy-relevant and applied research on central banking and to promote communication among researchers both inside and outside of central banks. Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., then Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, first proposed the idea of such a journal and discussed the concept with several BIS colleagues and with Ben S. Bernanke, then Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, who agreed to serve as the initial managing editor. Charles Bean, then Chief Economist of the Bank of England, strongly supported the project, and the journal's governing body, comprising representatives from the sponsoring institutions, was established. The journal's managing editor, co-editors and associate editors coordinate solicitation and review of articles across a range of disciplines reflecting the missions of central banks around the world. While featuring policy-relevant articles on any aspect of the theory and practice of central banking, the publication has a special emphasis on research bearing on monetary and financial stability. Managing editors of the journal and their affiliations during their terms as managing editor: Ben S. Bernanke 2000 - 2005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System John B. Taylor 2005 - 2007, Stanford University Frank Smets 2008 - 2010, European Central Bank John C. Williams 2011 - 2016, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Loretta J. Mester 2016 - 2019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Luc Laeven 2020 - present, European Central Bank

Graph and download economic data for Euro Short-Term Rate: Share of Volume of the 5 Largest Active Banks (ECBESTRSHRVOL5LRGACTBNK) from 2019-10-01 to 2025-08-29 about volume, interbank, Euro Area, percentile, Europe, and rate.