Graph and download economic data for Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 3 Years Hence (THREEFF3) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-05-30 about 3-year, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 1 Year Hence (THREEFF1) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-05-30 about 1-year, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 2 Years Hence (THREEFF2) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-05-30 about 2-year, rate, and USA.

United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 3 Years Hence was 3.84% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 3 Years Hence reached a record high of 9.06 in May of 1990 and a record low of 0.14 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 3 Years Hence - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on April of 2025.

United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 10 Years Hence was 5.47% in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 10 Years Hence reached a record high of 9.90 in September of 1990 and a record low of 1.58 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 10 Years Hence - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 10 Years Hence (THREEFF10) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-05-30 about 10-year, rate, and USA.

United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 5 Years Hence was 4.38% in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 5 Years Hence reached a record high of 9.20 in September of 1990 and a record low of 0.41 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 5 Years Hence - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 7 Years Hence (THREEFF7) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-05-23 about 7-year, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 4 Years Hence (THREEFF4) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-05-30 about 4-years, rate, and USA.

United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 6 Years Hence was 4.76% in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 6 Years Hence reached a record high of 9.36 in September of 1990 and a record low of 0.62 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 6 Years Hence - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

United States - Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 7 Years Hence was 0.82% in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 7 Years Hence reached a record high of 3.19 in April of 1992 and a record low of -0.81 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 7 Years Hence - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 5 Years Hence (THREEFF5) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-04-25 about 5-year, rate, and USA.

This dataset includes indicative forward-looking term rates derived from end-of-day SOFR futures prices. It also includes compound averages of daily SOFR rates. In 2017 the Alternative Reference Rate Committee (ARRC), a group of private-sector financial market participants convened by the Federal Reserve with support from other U.S. financial regulators, selected the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) as the recommended replacement for U.S. dollar LIBOR. Unlike LIBOR, which is reported daily for a variety of tenors ranging from overnight to one year, SOFR is an overnight rate, and hence adjustments will need to be made to contracts and systems designed to incorporate term rates.

We study the effects of monetary policy on economic activity separately identifying the effects of a conventional change in the fed funds rate from the policy of forward guidance. We use a structural VAR identified using external instruments from futures market data. The response of output to a fed funds rate shock is found to be consistent with typical monetary VAR analyses. However, the effect of a forward guidance shock that increases long-term interest rates has an expansionary effect on output. This counterintuitive response is shown to be tied to the asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public.

United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 8 Years Hence was 5.03% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 8 Years Hence reached a record high of 9.65 in September of 1990 and a record low of 1.10 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 8 Years Hence - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 1 Year Hence (THREEFFTP1) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-05-30 about term premium, 1-year, and USA.

FRBOP Forecast: 5Yr Forward: Ann Ave CPI Infla: sa: Mean: Next 5 Yrs data was reported at 2.201 % in Dec 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.239 % for Sep 2018. FRBOP Forecast: 5Yr Forward: Ann Ave CPI Infla: sa: Mean: Next 5 Yrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.426 % from Sep 2005 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.826 % in Sep 2009 and a record low of 2.201 % in Dec 2018. FRBOP Forecast: 5Yr Forward: Ann Ave CPI Infla: sa: Mean: Next 5 Yrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I008: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

I estimate various backward-looking and forward-looking Taylor rules augmented with variables that indicate proximity to an election and whether the Fed Chair and the majority of a chamber of Congress share the same political party affiliation to investigate whether Congress has influenced Federal Reserve policy from 1961 to 2020. I find that the Fed is susceptible to pressures from the Senate. In line with previous work, left-leaning politicians exhibit a higher tolerance for inflation. This results in the federal funds rate being lower by about 2.35 points when the Democratic party has a Senate majority. Second, while I find some evidence that the House and the Fed Chair sharing partisan affiliation results in tighter policy, this result is not robust to alternative measures of inflation. Finally, I find persuasive evidence that Congressional pressures on the Fed do not create a political monetary cycle around elections.

United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 4 Years Hence was 4.13% in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 4 Years Hence reached a record high of 9.02 in September of 1990 and a record low of 0.24 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Fitted Instantaneous Forward Rate 4 Years Hence - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.