Contrary to popular belief, federal funds futures rates do not tell us precisely where the market thinks federal funds rates will be in the future. On average, futures rates overpredict future fed funds rates, and, depending on whether fed funds rates are falling or rising, the futures rate may consistently overestimate or underestimate the future fed funds rates. To obtain a reliable estimate of the future fed funds rate, one must adjust the fed funds futures rate appropriately to account for the bias and past movements of the fed funds rate.

United States Open Interest: CBOT: Financial Futures: 30 Day Fed Funds data was reported at 2,051,535.000 Contract in Nov 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1,991,747.000 Contract for Oct 2018. United States Open Interest: CBOT: Financial Futures: 30 Day Fed Funds data is updated monthly, averaging 450,206.000 Contract from Jan 1996 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 275 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2,484,498.000 Contract in Apr 2018 and a record low of 15,172.000 Contract in Nov 1996. United States Open Interest: CBOT: Financial Futures: 30 Day Fed Funds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CME Group. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.Z022: CBOT: Futures: Open Interest.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

Download Historical Federal Funds (Settlement) Futures Data. CQG daily, 1 minute, tick, and level 1 data from 1899.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Dataset Description

This dataset contains the actual and predicted federal funds target rate for the United States from 1990 to 2023. The federal funds target rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to influence the economy.

The dataset includes the following five columns:

Release Date: The date on which the data was released by the Federal Reserve. Time: The time of day at which the data was released. Actual: The actual federal funds target rate. Predicted: The predicted federal funds target rate. Forecast: The forecast federal funds target rate.

Data Usage

This dataset can be used for a variety of purposes, including: - Analyzing trends in the federal funds target rate over time. - Forecasting the future path of the federal funds target rate. - Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy. - Data Quality

The data for this dataset is of high quality. The Federal Reserve is a reputable source of data and the data is updated regularly.

Data Limitations

The data for this dataset is limited to the United States. Additionally, the data does not include information on the factors that influenced the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to set the federal funds target rate.

Events rarely unfold exactly as we foresee them. In the monetary policy arena, for example, the timing and intensity of specific actions can be difficult to anticipate. Following a 15-month period during which no policy action was taken, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank’s policymaking arm, embarked on a series of moves that has raised money market interest rates seven times since January 1994.

Daily sample data for Federal Funds (Settlement) FF timestamped in Chicago time

Download 30 Day Fed Funds Future (CBOT) (FF1 Comdty) historical futures data — 1m, 5m, 10m, 30m, 1h, Daily — from 2008-Jan-02 to 2025-Jul-16

Tick (trades only) sample data for Federal Funds (Settlement) FF timestamped in Chicago time

Intraday 1 minute sample data for Federal Funds (Settlement) FF timestamped in Chicago time

Tick (Bids | Asks | Trades | Settle) sample data for Federal Funds (Settlement) FF timestamped in Chicago time

This paper demonstrates how options on federal funds futures, which began trading in March 2003, can be used to recover the implied probability density function (PDF) for future Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate outcomes. The discrete nature of the choices made by the FOMC allows for a very straightforward recovery of the implied PDF using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. This simple recovery method stands in contrast to the relatively complicated PDF recovery techniques developed for options written on assets such as equities, foreign exchange, or commodity futures where the underlying prices are most appropriately modeled as being drawn from continuous distributions. The OLS estimation is used to recover PDFs for single FOMC meetings as well as PDFs for joint estimation of multiple FOMC meetings, and allows for the imposition of restrictions on the recovered probabilities, both within and across FOMC meetings. Finally, recovered probabilities are used to assess the impact of data releases and Fed communication on the perceived likelihood of actual policy outcomes.

United States Turnover: Daily Avg: CBOT: Financial Futures: 30 Day Fed Funds data was reported at 277,114.000 Contract in Jun 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 332,070.730 Contract for May 2018. United States Turnover: Daily Avg: CBOT: Financial Futures: 30 Day Fed Funds data is updated monthly, averaging 43,337.500 Contract from Jan 2001 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 210 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 371,278.740 Contract in Feb 2018 and a record low of 11,857.230 Contract in Apr 2013. United States Turnover: Daily Avg: CBOT: Financial Futures: 30 Day Fed Funds data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CME Group. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.Z021: CBOT: Futures: Turnover.

Graph and download economic data for 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T3MFF) from 1982-01-04 to 2025-11-26 about yield curve, spread, 3-month, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T1YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-11-28 about yield curve, 1-year, spread, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

In February 1994, the FOMC began a new era in transparency, gradually building a communications apparatus that conveys information about the Committee’s decisions and expectations. Has the new apparatus improved the public’s ability to predict FOMC interest rate decisions? New research based on the prices of fed funds futures shows that over the past decade, it has, especially over horizons of two to three months.

This paper constructs daily measures of the real interest rate and expected inflation using commodity futures prices and the term structure of Treasury yields. We find that commodity futures markets respond to surprise increases in the federal funds rate target by raising the inflation rate expected over the next three to nine months. There is no evidence that the real interest rate responds to surprises in the federal funds target. The data from the commodity futures markets are highly volatile. We show that one can substantially reduce the noise using limited information estimators such as the median change. Nevertheless, the basket of commodities actually traded daily is quite narrow and we do not know whether our observable rates are closely connected to the unobservable inflation and real rates that affect economy-wide consumption and investment decisions.

The data show what are basically frequency distributions of interest rate projections by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The twelve FOMC members vote on (and determine) the federal funds rate, but they also give their projections for future federal funds rates. The projections fall into the ranges given in the first column. Then the projection counts are tallied by current and future FOMC meeting months.

The following is from the Fed FOMC member projections website: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230920.htm

Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.