The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

Access CME futures and options data for interest rate markets, including U.S. Treasuries, SOFR, Federal Funds, ESTR, and more with Databento's APIs or web portal.

Our continuous contract symbology is a notation that maps to an actual, tradable instrument on any given date. The prices returned are real, unadjusted prices. We do not create a synthetic time series by adjusting the prices to remove jumps during rollovers.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T1YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-06-05 about yield curve, 1-year, spread, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Discover how the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy is impacting oil prices and future demand.

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 8.50 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Brazil was last recorded at 14.75 percent. This dataset provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

I estimate the effects of FOMC announcements, post-FOMC press conferences, and speeches and Congressional testimony by the Fed Chair on stock prices, Treasury yields, and interest rate futures from 1988–2019. I show that for all but the very shortest-maturity interest rate futures, Fed Chair speeches are more important than FOMC announcements. My results suggest that the previous literature’s focus on FOMC announcements has ignored the most important source of variation in U.S. monetary policy.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Fixed 30-year mortgage rates in the United States averaged 6.92 percent in the week ending May 30 of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Strong returns in various financial markets and increased trading volumes have benefited businesses in the industry. Companies provide underwriting, brokering and market-making services for different financial instruments, including bonds, stocks and derivatives. Businesses benefited from improving macroeconomic conditions despite high inflationary economic environment. However, in 2024, the Fed slashed interest rates as inflationary pressures eased , limiting interest income from fixed-income securities for the industry. The Fed seeks to further cut interest rates but will monitor inflation, employment, the effects of tariffs and other economic factors before making further rate cut decisions. Overall, revenue has been growing at a CAGR of 7.0% over the past five years and is expected to total $456.6 billion in 2025, with revenue expected to decline 0.9% in the same year. In addition, industry profit is expected to climb to 13.0% over the five years to 2025. While many industries struggled at the onset of the period due to economic disruptions due to the pandemic and supply chain issues, businesses benefited from the volatility. Primarily, companies have benefited from increased trading activity on behalf of their clients due to fluctuations in asset prices. This has led to higher trade execution fees for firms at the onset of the period. Similarly, debt underwriting increased as many businesses have turned to investment bankers to help raise cash for various ventures. Also, improved scalability of operations, especially regarding trading services conducted by securities intermediates, has helped increase industry profits. Structural changes have forced the industry's smaller businesses to evolve. Because competing in trading services requires massive investments in technology and compliance, boutique investment banks have alternatively focused on advising in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. Boutique investment banks' total share of M&A revenue is forecast to grow through the end of 2030. Furthermore, the industry will benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions as inflationary pressures are expected to ease. This will help asset values rise and interest rate levels to be cut, thus allowing operators to generate more from equity underwriting and lending activities. Overall, revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.2% to $507.9 billion over the five years to 2030.

The benchmark interest rate in South Africa was last recorded at 7.25 percent. This dataset provides - South Africa Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Global price of Aluminum (PALUMUSDM) from Jan 1990 to Apr 2025 about aluminum, World, and price.

Graph and download economic data for Global price of Wheat (PWHEAMTUSDM) from Jan 1990 to Apr 2025 about wheat, World, and price.