Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T3MFF) from 1982-01-04 to 2025-10-02 about yield curve, spread, 3-month, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Effective Federal Funds Rate in the United States remained unchanged at 4.08 percent on Friday September 19. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Effective Federal Funds Rate.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to two percent by June 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

This paper constructs daily measures of the real interest rate and expected inflation using commodity futures prices and the term structure of Treasury yields. We find that commodity futures markets respond to surprise increases in the federal funds rate target by raising the inflation rate expected over the next three to nine months. There is no evidence that the real interest rate responds to surprises in the federal funds target. The data from the commodity futures markets are highly volatile. We show that one can substantially reduce the noise using limited information estimators such as the median change. Nevertheless, the basket of commodities actually traded daily is quite narrow and we do not know whether our observable rates are closely connected to the unobservable inflation and real rates that affect economy-wide consumption and investment decisions.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

View market daily updates and historical trends for Overnight Federal Funds Rate. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve. Track economic data with YC…

The Kansas City Fed’s Measure of Policy Rate Uncertainty (KC PRU) is a daily measure of market-based uncertainty regarding where short-term U.S. interest rates will be one year in the future.

This dataset includes indicative forward-looking term rates derived from end-of-day SOFR futures prices. It also includes compound averages of daily SOFR rates. In 2017 the Alternative Reference Rate Committee (ARRC), a group of private-sector financial market participants convened by the Federal Reserve with support from other U.S. financial regulators, selected the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) as the recommended replacement for U.S. dollar LIBOR. Unlike LIBOR, which is reported daily for a variety of tenors ranging from overnight to one year, SOFR is an overnight rate, and hence adjustments will need to be made to contracts and systems designed to incorporate term rates.

Discover how the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy is impacting oil prices and future demand.

The 'Interest Rate Projection - Current' in the USA refers to the Federal Reserve's forecast of future interest rates, typically presented in the form of the 'dot plot' during FOMC meetings.

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 7.50 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The 'Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr' in the USA refers to the forecasted interest rates for three years into the future, typically provided by the Federal Reserve.

The benchmark interest rate in Canada was last recorded at 2.50 percent. This dataset provides - Canada Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T1YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-10-02 about yield curve, 1-year, spread, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Analysis of the recent decline in cotton futures, driven by a stronger US dollar and the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut, with key price points and market data.

Gold prices surged to a historic high as investors bet on Fed rate cuts, with analysts forecasting further gains driven by economic uncertainty and strong demand.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.