We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States contracted 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Jun 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United Kingdom from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (GBRRECP) from Feb 1955 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and United Kingdom.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Italy from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (ITARECP) from Feb 1960 to Aug 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and Italy.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Major 5 Asia from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (MAJOR5ASIARECD) from 1978-01-01 to 2022-08-31 about Major 5 Asia, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Italy from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (ITARECM) from Feb 1960 to Aug 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and Italy.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (USARECDP) from 1947-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Food insecurity is a major challenge in Mbire district as the grain yield (maize and sorghum) from rain-fed farming are low due to erratic rainfall distribution (400 - 650 mm). The inhabitants of this area have resorted to floodplain recession farming as a way of boosting their food production. However, no studies have been carried out to assess whether the adaptation benefits farmers and the environment. A study was conducted to analyse the impacts of floodplain recession farming in Mbire District on household food security, soil fertility, environment and the community. Data was collected using questionnaires, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and soil samples from six fields. Soil samples were analysed for pH, Total nitrogen, Total Organic matter, phosphorus, potassium, soil moisture, calcium and magnesium. The soil analyses were used to create maps of individual fertility parameters through the inverse distance weighted interpolation method in ArcGIS. In the same fields, yield was estimated using the cob weight measurement method. Leaf samples were analysed for nitrogen and phosphorus to relate them to the soil fertility status. 30% of total number of households in each ward of the district have access to fields in the floodplain. The results from the farmers’ survey show that dry-land farming generally produces 0.2t/ha of maize while recession farming contributes 0.71t/ha. Field trials in the floodplain showed a yield of 1.32t/ha. Recession farming had more contribution (47%) to food security, according to the surveys than dry-land farming (24%), although leaving a deficit of 29%. In contrast, recession farming, contributes only 2% to household yearly income. Variability in access to floodplain land does not depend on gender (p> 0.05). However age has a predictive ability for access to floodplain land (p< 0.05), therefore 8.7% of variability (R2 = 0.087) in access depends on age. The analysis of topsoil of the floodplains shows that, there is great potential for maize production. Fertility is significantly higher in floodplains (p< 0.05) than in rain-fed field, which encourages growth of crops such as maize, beans and cowpeas. In conclusion, the potential of recession farming exists but the practice poses a risk on human life through attacks by hippopotami and the environment through cutting down of trees. Crop production is not be limited by fertility but rather the farmers’ management practices and there is potential for yield improvement. WaterNet

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (MSCRECDM) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-08-31 about G7, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (OECDEUROPERECDM) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-08-31 about OECD Europe, peak, trough, recession indicators, and Europe.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Netherlands from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (NDLREC) from Feb 1960 to Aug 2022 about Netherlands, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for China from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (CHNREC) from Jan 1978 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and China.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Israel from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (ISRREC) from Feb 1995 to Sep 2022 about Israel, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Indonesia from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (IDNRECD) from 1990-02-01 to 2022-05-31 about peak, trough, Indonesia, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Germany from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (DEURECP) from Feb 1960 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and Germany.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Russian Federation from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (RUSRECDP) from 1995-02-01 to 2021-08-31 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and Russia.