This data package includes the underlying data, programs, documentation, and background notes for Another reason to raise the Fed’s inflation target: An employment and output boom, PIIE Policy Brief 21-19.

If you use the data, please cite as: Reifschneider, David, and David Wilcox, Another reason to raise the Fed’s inflation target: An employment and output boom, PIIE Policy Brief 21-19, August 2021, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and May 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

Federal Reserve Board: Inflation Target data was reported at 2.000 % in 2019. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.000 % for 2018. Federal Reserve Board: Inflation Target data is updated yearly, averaging 2.000 % from Dec 2012 (Median) to 2019, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.000 % in 2019 and a record low of 2.000 % in 2019. Federal Reserve Board: Inflation Target data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I001: Consumer Price Index: Inflation Target.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.40 percent in May from 2.30 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF10YR) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about projection, 10-year, inflation, and USA.

Core consumer prices in the United States increased 2.80 percent in May of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - United States Core Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for 30-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF30YR) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 30-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

It is widely acknowledged that the Fed can control the average inflation rate over a period of time reasonably well. Because of this and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) long-standing commitment to price stability, the author argues that the FOMC has an implicit long-run inflation objective (LIO) lower and upper bounds to the long-run inflation rate. He shows that the statements made by the FOMC in 2003 clarified the lower bound of its LIO and that the average of long-run inflation expectations responded by rising about 80 basis points. Moreover, consistent with reducing the market's uncertainty about the FOMC's LIO, long-run inflation expectations became more stable. The FOMC has recently been more specific about the upper bound of its LIO as well. The FOMC could eliminate the remaining uncertainty by establishing an explicit, numerical inflation objective.

United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): sa: MoM data was reported at 0.185 % in Dec 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.178 % for Nov 2018. United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): sa: MoM data is updated monthly, averaging 0.153 % from Aug 2013 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 65 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.193 % in Mar 2016 and a record low of 0.129 % in Mar 2014. United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): sa: MoM data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I007: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data was reported at 2.291 % in Nov 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.484 % for Oct 2018. United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data is updated monthly, averaging 1.597 % from Aug 2013 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 64 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.935 % in Jul 2018 and a record low of -0.184 % in Apr 2015. United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I003: Consumer Price Index: Urban: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The Consumer Price Index in the United States increased 0.10 percent in May of 2025 over the previous month. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate MoM - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Inflation Expectations in the United States decreased to 3 percent in June from 3.20 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for 3-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF3YR) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 3-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

FRBOP Forecast: Core CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data was reported at 2.226 % in Mar 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.327 % for Dec 2018. FRBOP Forecast: Core CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.951 % from Mar 2007 (Median) to Mar 2019, with 49 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.365 % in Jun 2018 and a record low of 1.127 % in Mar 2009. FRBOP Forecast: Core CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I008: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF1YR) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 1-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .