The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

United States - St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast was 1.59000 % Chg. at Annual Rate in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast reached a record high of 19.45000 in July of 2020 and a record low of -31.28000 in April of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Content

St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index (ENI) uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For more information, see Grover, Sean P.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; and McCracken, Michael W. “A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth" (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2016/12/05/a-macroeconomic-news-index-for-constructing-nowcasts-of-u-s-real-gross-domestic-product-growth/ )

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 2013-04-01

• Observation End : 2019-10-01

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Ferdinand Stöhr on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States increased to -0.10 points in June from -0.16 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast from Q2 2013 to Q2 2025 about nowcast, projection, real, GDP, rate, indexes, and USA.

Content

More details about each file are in the individual file descriptions.

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Vita Vilcina on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States increased to 15.90 points in July from -4 points in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Interest Rates (EMVMACROINTEREST) from Jan 1985 to Jun 2025 about volatility, uncertainty, equity, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Daily News Sentiment Index data was reported at -0.085 Index in 04 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of -0.104 Index for 03 May 2025. Daily News Sentiment Index data is updated daily, averaging 0.017 Index from Jan 1980 (Median) to 04 May 2025, with 16542 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.330 Index in 05 Mar 2017 and a record low of -0.671 Index in 15 May 2020. Daily News Sentiment Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S030: Daily News Sentiment Index.

U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) Press Releases and Techlines

Content

This series deflates M1 money stock (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL) with CPI (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL).

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1959-01-01

• Observation End : 2019-10-01

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Precondo CA on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are a standard method of measuring monetary policy shocks. However, some recent studies have documented puzzling effects of these shocks on private-sector forecasts of GDP, unemployment, or inflation that are opposite in sign to what standard macroeconomic models would predict. This evidence has been viewed as supportive of a "Fed information effect" channel of monetary policy, whereby an FOMC tightening (easing) communicates that the economy is stronger (weaker) than the public had expected. We show that these empirical results are also consistent with a "Fed response to news" channel, in which incoming, publicly available economic news causes both the Fed to change monetary policy and the private sector to revise its forecasts. We provide substantial new evidence that distinguishes between these two channels and strongly favors the latter; for example, (i) regressions that include the previously omitted public economic news, (ii) a new survey that we conduct of Blue Chip forecasters, and (iii) high-frequency financial market responses to FOMC announcements all suggest that the Fed and private sector are simply responding to the same public news, with relatively little role for a "Fed information effect".

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States increased to 0.90 points in July from -12.70 points in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Economic Policy Uncertainty : News-Based for the United States was 377.79450 Index in June of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Economic Policy Uncertainty : News-Based for the United States reached a record high of 725.03117 in April of 2025 and a record low of 21.94447 in September of 1956. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Economic Policy Uncertainty : News-Based for the United States - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Content

Effective Date Data before 1975 represent the date of the New York Fed discount rate change, data after 1975 represent the date of the first Federal Reserve bank discount rate change. Source: Board of Governors: Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1914-1941, and 1941-1970; the Annual Statistical Digest, 1970-1979; and the Federal Reserve Bulletin, 1978 - January 8, 2003.

Please refer to http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2003/20030106/default.htm for further information on the discontinuation of this series effective January 9, 2003.

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the Federal Reserve organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1934-02-02

• Observation End : 2002-11-06

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Gift Habeshaw on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

Content

The STLFSI measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress. Accordingly, as the level of financial stress in the economy changes, the data series are likely to move together.

How to Interpret the Index: The average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress.

More information: For additional information on the STLFSI and its construction, see "Measuring Financial Market Stress" (https://files.stlouisfed.org/research/publications/es/10/ES1002.pdf) and the related appendix (https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/net/NETJan2010Appendix.pdf).

See this list (https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/st-louis-fed-financial-stress-index/stlfsi-key) of the components that are used to construct the STLFSI.

As of 07/15/2010 the Vanguard Financial Exchange-Traded Fund series has been replaced with the S&P 500 Financials Index. This change was made to facilitate a more timely and automated updating of the FSI. Switching from the Vanguard series to the S&P series produced no meaningful change in the index.

Copyright, 2016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1993-12-31

• Observation End : 2019-11-29

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Laura Lefurgey-Smith on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

Content

Federal Net Outlays as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYONGDA188S) was first constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in January 2013. It is calculated using Federal Net Outlays (FYONET) and Gross Domestic Product (GDPA): FYONGDA188S= ((FYONET/1000)/GDPA)*100 FYONET/1000 transforms FYONET from millions of dollars to billions of dollars.

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1929-01-01

• Observation End : 2018-01-01

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Luis Mézquita on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in June from 2.40 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

D'Amico, Kim, and Wei use a no-arbitrage term structure model to decompose TIPS inflation compensation into three components: inflation expectation, inflation risk premium, and TIPS liquidity premium over the 1983-present period. The model is also used to decompose nominal yields or forward rates into four components: expected real short rate, expected inflation, inflation risk premium, and real term premium.