The 'Fed Interest Rate Decision' is an economic event where the Federal Reserve announces changes to the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.-2025-07-30

The 'Fed Interest Rate Decision' is an economic event where the Federal Reserve announces changes to the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) from 2008-12-16 to 2025-12-01 about federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The 'Fed Interest Rate Decision' is an economic event where the Federal Reserve announces changes to the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.-2025-09-17

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median was 3.10% in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

The 'Fed Interest Rate Decision' is an economic event where the Federal Reserve announces changes to the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.-2025-03-19

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and September 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By September 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

The 'Fed Interest Rate Decision' is an economic event where the Federal Reserve announces changes to the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.-2025-12-10

The 'Fed Interest Rate Decision' is an economic event where the Federal Reserve announces changes to the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.-2025-06-18

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Midpoint was 2.10000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Midpoint reached a record high of 5.55000 in January of 2021 and a record low of -2.15000 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Midpoint - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

Over the past ten years, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has repeatedly emphasized that future policy is data dependent. In this Economic Commentary , we investigate how financial markets expected future interest rates to change with the release of new data on inflation and labor market conditions. We find that the surprises in economic indicators have a stronger effect on the 2-year Treasury yield than on the expected federal funds rate to be set in the next FOMC meeting. This implies that markets understand that under the data-dependent approach, policy decisions do not heavily rely on the most recent data or short-run fluctuations, but, rather, rely more on the persistent trend of the economy. In addition, we observe that expected future interest rates have become more sensitive to surprises in inflation after 2022, suggesting that the FOMC’s determination to reduce inflation has been well-understood by the markets.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Midpoint was 3.25% in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Midpoint reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Midpoint - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

The data show what are basically frequency distributions of interest rate projections by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The twelve FOMC members vote on (and determine) the federal funds rate, but they also give their projections for future federal funds rates. The projections fall into the ranges given in the first column. Then the projection counts are tallied by current and future FOMC meeting months.

The following is from the Fed FOMC member projections website: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230920.htm

Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

This paper demonstrates how options on federal funds futures, which began trading in March 2003, can be used to recover the implied probability density function (PDF) for future Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate outcomes. The discrete nature of the choices made by the FOMC allows for a very straightforward recovery of the implied PDF using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. This simple recovery method stands in contrast to the relatively complicated PDF recovery techniques developed for options written on assets such as equities, foreign exchange, or commodity futures where the underlying prices are most appropriately modeled as being drawn from continuous distributions. The OLS estimation is used to recover PDFs for single FOMC meetings as well as PDFs for joint estimation of multiple FOMC meetings, and allows for the imposition of restrictions on the recovered probabilities, both within and across FOMC meetings. Finally, recovered probabilities are used to assess the impact of data releases and Fed communication on the perceived likelihood of actual policy outcomes.

The 'Fed Interest Rate Decision' is an economic event where the Federal Reserve announces changes to the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.-2024-05-01

The Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent

Jerome Powell FED Press Conference Transcripts Dataset

Dataset Overview

The most comprehensive collection of Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve press conference transcripts (2018-2025) - perfect for NLP, sentiment analysis, and financial market research!

This dataset contains clean, structured transcripts from every FOMC press conference where Jerome Powell spoke as Federal Reserve Chair, with automated name tagging and text cleaning for immediate use in machine learning projects, data analysis or research.

ML Project ideas:

• LLM fine tuning - Create a Jerome Powell LLM, and ask it what will the FED do
• Sentiment Analysis - How Powell's tone affects markets
• Topic Modeling - Key themes in Fed communications
• Named Entity Recognition - Financial figure identification
• Time Series Analysis - Policy evolution over time
• Predictive Modeling - Market reaction forecasting

📊 Dataset Statistics - Data Points: 50,000+ text segments - Time Coverage: 6+ years of Fed communications - Market Events: 3 major economic cycles - Policy Changes: 15+ interest rate decisions - Market Impact: $100+ billion in daily volatility

🔥 Community ideas:

1. "Powell Sentiment Index"

• Real-time Fed sentiment scoring
• Market Impact: Predict market reactions to Fed communications
• Social Sharing: Daily sentiment updates on Twitter/LinkedIn #### 2. "Fed Policy Predictor"
• Predict Fed decisions before they happen
• Accuracy: Historical prediction validation
• Engagement: Weekly prediction contests #### 3. "Powell Word Cloud Generator" ☁️
• Visual representation of Fed priorities
• Interactive: Real-time word cloud updates
• Shareable: Perfect for social media #### 4. "Market Reaction Analyzer" Quantify Powell's market impact
• Real-time: Live analysis during press conferences
• Trading: Identify profitable trading opportunities

Author: Jonathan Paserman