Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at 5.38 percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at four percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at 1.75 percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to 3.5 percent, the ECB refi rate to 2.65 percent, the Bank of England bank rate to 3.33 percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to 0.75 percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

FRBOP Forecast: Annual CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Current Plus 2 Yrs data was reported at 2.240 % in Dec 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.316 % for Sep 2018. FRBOP Forecast: Annual CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Current Plus 2 Yrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.297 % from Sep 2005 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.561 % in Dec 2006 and a record low of 1.960 % in Dec 2010. FRBOP Forecast: Annual CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Current Plus 2 Yrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I008: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

FRBOP Forecast: CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data was reported at 2.304 % in Mar 2019. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.221 % for Dec 2018. FRBOP Forecast: CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.503 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Mar 2019, with 151 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.759 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 1.362 % in Dec 2009. FRBOP Forecast: CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I008: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Inflation Expectations in the United States decreased to 3.20 percent in May from 3.60 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

FRBOP Forecast: Core CPI Inflation: sa: Mean data was reported at 2.346 % in Mar 2019. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.116 % for Dec 2018. FRBOP Forecast: Core CPI Inflation: sa: Mean data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.873 % from Mar 2007 (Median) to Mar 2019, with 49 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.523 % in Sep 2008 and a record low of 0.700 % in Mar 2009. FRBOP Forecast: Core CPI Inflation: sa: Mean data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I008: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

FRBOP Forecast: Annual Core CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Current data was reported at 2.497 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.226 % for Mar 2018. FRBOP Forecast: Annual Core CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Current data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.964 % from Mar 2007 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 46 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.497 % in Jun 2018 and a record low of 0.808 % in Dec 2010. FRBOP Forecast: Annual Core CPI Inflation: sa: Mean: Current data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.I008: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Core consumer prices in the United States increased 2.80 percent in April of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - United States Core Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

FRBOP Forecast: CPI Inflation: sa: Median: Plus 3 Qtrs data was reported at 2.300 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.227 % for Mar 2018. FRBOP Forecast: CPI Inflation: sa: Median: Plus 3 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.513 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 148 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.550 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 1.600 % in Sep 2010. FRBOP Forecast: CPI Inflation: sa: Median: Plus 3 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.I008: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Graph and download economic data for University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation (MICH) from Jan 1978 to Apr 2025 about consumer sentiment, projection, MI, consumer, inflation, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 8.50 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Consumer Price Index CPI in the United States increased to 320.80 points in April from 319.80 points in March of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .

FRBOP Forecast: 5Yr Forward: Ann Ave CPI Infla: sa: Mean: Next 5 Yrs data was reported at 2.201 % in Dec 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.239 % for Sep 2018. FRBOP Forecast: 5Yr Forward: Ann Ave CPI Infla: sa: Mean: Next 5 Yrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.426 % from Sep 2005 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 54 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.826 % in Sep 2009 and a record low of 2.201 % in Dec 2018. FRBOP Forecast: 5Yr Forward: Ann Ave CPI Infla: sa: Mean: Next 5 Yrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I008: Consumer Price Index: Urban: sa: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Money Supply M0 in the United States decreased to 5732900 USD Million in April from 5775200 USD Million in March of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Money Supply M0 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Hong Kong was last recorded at 4.75 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Hong Kong Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.