The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 3.75 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint (FEDTARCTM) from 2026 to 2028 about projection, federal, rate, and USA.

Live Federal Reserve rate decision probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets. Includes FOMC meeting odds, rate cut/hike probabilities, and cross-platform comparisons.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open un

Policy interest rates in the United States and Europe declined markedly in 2025, with all observed economies implementing multiple rate cuts over the course of the year. In the United States, the federal funds rate was reduced from **** percent at the end of 2024 to **** percent by year-end 2025. Similarly, the European Central Bank lowered its main refinancing rate from **** percent to **** percent, while the Bank of England reduced its bank rate from **** percent to **** percent. Based on forecasts conducted in 2024, both the U.S. federal funds rate and the Bank of England’s policy rate are expected to decline further in 2026. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

Predictions and real-time odds on "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" sourced from Polymarket.

Composite index measuring consensus fragility around Federal Reserve interest rate expectations for 2026. Combines FOMC Dot Plot dispersion, CME FedWatch market-vs-Fed gap, and Kalshi prediction market divergence.

View market daily updates and historical trends for Effective Federal Funds Rate. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve. Track economic data with YC…

This dataset provides values for INTEREST RATE reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

The benchmark interest rate in Canada was last recorded at 2.25 percent. This dataset provides - Canada Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in India was last recorded at 5.25 percent. This dataset provides - India Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In January 2026, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2025. In January 2026, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at ** percent, while Japan retained the lowest at **** percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. Sweden had the lowest inflation rate at *** percent in October 2023. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of *** percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in late 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from **** percent in September 2019 to *** percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2024 and 2025.

Monthly and long-term United States Interest Rate data: historical series and analyst forecasts curated by FocusEconomics.

Dataset Overview

A comprehensive monthly record of central bank policy interest rates for 49 central banks spanning January 1945 to February 2026, sourced directly from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) official statistical API.

Covers major central banks including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, and 44 others across Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa.

Each record includes the official policy rate, derived rate change in basis points, rate cycle classification (Hiking / Cutting / Holding High / Holding Low), rate regime label (Negative / Near Zero / Accommodative / Neutral / Restrictive / Very Restrictive), cumulative change since January 2022, spread vs the US Federal Reserve, 3 and 12-month rolling averages, all-time high/low flags, crisis period flags (GFC, COVID, 2022–23 Hiking Cycle), and historical era labels spanning the Bretton Woods Era through the current Rate Cutting Cycle.

24,454 records. 100% completeness across all critical fields. All math independently verified — rate changes, cumulative BPS, rolling averages, and spread calculations confirmed correct.

Data Science Applications

• Time series forecasting: predict rate decisions using rolling averages, cycle phase, and spread vs Fed
• Clustering: group central banks by rate behaviour patterns across decades
• Event study analysis: measure rate response to GFC, COVID, and the 2022-23 inflation shock
• Correlation analysis: cross-country rate synchronisation and divergence during hiking and cutting cycles
• Regime detection: classify monetary policy stance using rate_regime and rate_cycle features
• EDA: 80 years of global monetary policy across 7 world regions

COLUMN DESCRIPTORS

date — First day of month (ISO YYYY-MM-DD) time_period — Month string (YYYY-MM) year / month / month_name — Date components quarter — Q1–Q4 decade — Decade label (e.g. 1970s) era — Historical monetary policy era country_code — ISO 2-letter country code country_name — Full country name central_bank — Official central bank name region — World region (7 categories) continent — Continent capital — Country capital city population — Country population (2024) currency — Official currency name and code policy_rate_pct — Official policy rate (% per annum) rate_change_bps — MoM rate change in basis points rate_change_direction — Hike / Cut / Hold / First Record rate_cycle — Hiking / Cutting / Holding High / Holding Low / Holding rate_regime — Negative Rate / Near Zero / Accommodative / Neutral / Restrictive / Very Restrictive / Emergency High cumulative_change_since_2022_bps — Cumulative rate change since Jan 2022 (bps) rate_jan2022_base — Policy rate as of January 2022 (baseline) rate_3m_avg — 3-month rolling average rate rate_12m_avg — 12-month rolling average rate rate_12m_max — 12-month rolling maximum rate rate_12m_min — 12-month rolling minimum rate is_all_time_high — 1 if rate is a new all-time high is_all_time_low — 1 if rate is a new all-time low spread_vs_fed_bps — Rate spread vs US Federal Reserve (bps) fed_rate — US Federal Reserve rate at same date gfc_period — 1 if date falls in GFC (2008-2009) covid_period — 1 if date falls in COVID era (2020-2021) hike_cycle_2022_23 — 1 if date falls in global hiking cycle rate_description — BIS rate description for this series rate_notes — BIS compilation methodology notes source_institution — Central bank and BIS as data source data_source — BIS WS_CBPOL v1 retrieved_date — Date data was retrieved build_timestamp — Full build timestamp row_completeness_pct — % of critical fields populated

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) — Central Bank Policy Rates WS_CBPOL Dataset, BIS Statistical API v1 https://stats.bis.org

REST Countries API — country metadata https://restcountries.com

All BIS data is publicly available under open access terms.

Prediction market probabilities for the March 18, 2026 FOMC decision from Kalshi and Polymarket. Includes rate hold odds, year-end rate cut distribution, dissent count pricing, Fed Chair succession odds, and cross-platform comparisons.

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

• Iranian Regime Falls
• Fed Rate Cut
• Trump declares election interference national emergency
• Insurrection Act invoked
• SAVE Act signed into law
• James T

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.75 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This dissertation comprises three chapters. The first chapter compares macroeconomic forecasts of various machine learning models. The subsequent two chapters evaluate the response of unemployment and monetary policy to various oil price shocks.

The first chapter evaluates the performance of an extensive set of machine learning algorithms in forecasting macroeconomic variables relative to benchmark econometric models. We conduct a pseudo-out-of-sample forecast for fifteen real, nominal, and financial variables. Machine learning models outperform the benchmark in forecasting real variables, attributed to their ability to handle nonlinearities, but perform worse in forecasting nominal and financial variables. They beat the benchmark during high volatility episodes, like recessions and the COVID-19 pandemic. Dimension reduction models frequently appear in the top five most accurate models for real variables, especially at longer horizons.

In the second chapter, we utilize local projections to investigate the impact of structural oil price shocks on unemployment rates and spells across the United States, emphasizing both national and state-level variations. Oil supply shocks lead to long-run increases in the national unemployment rate, incidence, and short-term unemployment. In contrast, economic activity shocks reduce all unemployment rates and spells, especially in oil-producing states. Consumption demand shocks have minimal impact on unemployment rates and durations, while inventory demand shocks show only temporary effects on durations.

The third chapter uses local projections to investigate the macroeconomic and monetary policy responses to adverse oil supply shocks. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates twice: on impact and ten months after the shock to counter ongoing high inflation. A net oil exporter, Canada raises interest rates sharply in response to the shock to counter inflation. Switzerland initially maintains steady interest rates to prevent Swiss Franc appreciation, followed by gradual rate increases to manage inflation as the exchange rate stabilizes. Despite these efforts, inflation remains high in Switzerland.

Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMDLR) from 2012-01-25 to 2026-03-18 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.