Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) from 2008-12-16 to 2025-07-14 about federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

United States SCE: Interest Rate Expectation: Probability of Higher Average Interest Rate on Savings Accounts 1 Year from Now data was reported at 26.500 % in Apr 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 26.133 % for Mar 2025. United States SCE: Interest Rate Expectation: Probability of Higher Average Interest Rate on Savings Accounts 1 Year from Now data is updated monthly, averaging 29.753 % from Jun 2013 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 143 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 41.800 % in Mar 2017 and a record low of 24.225 % in Mar 2024. United States SCE: Interest Rate Expectation: Probability of Higher Average Interest Rate on Savings Accounts 1 Year from Now data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H085: Survey of Consumer Expectations: Financial.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates, Discount Rate for United States (INTDSRUSM193N) from Jan 1950 to Aug 2021 about discount, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Canada was last recorded at 2.75 percent. This dataset provides - Canada Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

According to the European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasters, the interest rate on the ECB's main refinancing operations is expected to decrease from *** percent in January 2025 to *** percent in 2026.

SCE：利率预期：Probability of Higher Average Interest Rate on Savings Accounts 1 Year from Now在04-01-2025达26.500%，相较于03-01-2025的26.133%有所增长。SCE：利率预期：Probability of Higher Average Interest Rate on Savings Accounts 1 Year from Now数据按月更新，06-01-2013至04-01-2025期间平均值为29.753%，共143份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于03-01-2017，达41.800%，而历史最低值则出现于03-01-2024，为24.225%。CEIC提供的SCE：利率预期：Probability of Higher Average Interest Rate on Savings Accounts 1 Year from Now数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of New York，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – Table US.H085: Survey of Consumer Expectations: Financial。

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 8 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

The benchmark interest rate in Sweden was last recorded at 2 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Sweden Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The central bank policy rate in Japan stood at *** percent in June 2025. In March 2024, the Bank of Japan raised short-term interest rates for the first time in 17 years, ending its negative interest rate policy. From August 2024 onwards, the central bank encouraged the uncollaterized overnight call rate to remain at **** percent. A third rate hike to *** percent was implemented in January 2025. In 2016, the Bank of Japan had introduced a policy of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) with yield curve control, one component of which included controlling short-term and long-term interest rates through market operations.

Variables construction files using raw data and replication code

The booming retail trade and the above target consumer prices’ inflation in 2023-2024 in Russia amid tightening monetary policy stance raise an issue of the strength of the monetary policy interest rate channel. The focus of our paper is the interest rate elasticity (given inflation expectations) of a household’s loan request probability. We argue that a household, not an individual consumer, is the right object for the study. We use unique data on households’ loan applications obtained from the All-Russian Survey of Consumer Finances, which contains information on more than 6000 households in Russia. Actual loan applications cover period of 2020-2022, the survey also contain information on households’ borrowing intentions as of late spring-summer 2022.The interest rate channel of monetary policy with regard to unsecured loans although being statistically significant and working in the right direction, seems not to be economically important. It means that Bank of Russia in its relying on this channel might have to increase the key rate significantly to cool down the consumer demand and bring retail inflation to the target. We find that higher household’s inflation expectations positively correlate with its loan demand.We empirically identify a set of Russian households’ characteristics that are key drivers for households’ requests for credit. Demographics is an important factor of the demand.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.