Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

I estimate various backward-looking and forward-looking Taylor rules augmented with variables that indicate proximity to an election and whether the Fed Chair and the majority of a chamber of Congress share the same political party affiliation to investigate whether Congress has influenced Federal Reserve policy from 1961 to 2020. I find that the Fed is susceptible to pressures from the Senate. In line with previous work, left-leaning politicians exhibit a higher tolerance for inflation. This results in the federal funds rate being lower by about 2.35 points when the Democratic party has a Senate majority. Second, while I find some evidence that the House and the Fed Chair sharing partisan affiliation results in tighter policy, this result is not robust to alternative measures of inflation. Finally, I find persuasive evidence that Congressional pressures on the Fed do not create a political monetary cycle around elections.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) from 2008-12-16 to 2025-07-31 about federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) surveys up to 80 large domestic banks and 24 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. The Federal Reserve generally conducts the survey quarterly, timing it so that results are available for the January/February, April/May, August, and October/November meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Federal Reserve occasionally conducts one or two additional surveys during the year. Questions cover changes in the standards and terms of the banks' lending and the state of business and household demand for loans. The survey often includes questions on other topics of current interest. The survey results are released on Mondays after the FOMC meeting.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and May 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are a standard method of measuring monetary policy shocks. However, some recent studies have documented puzzling effects of these shocks on private-sector forecasts of GDP, unemployment, or inflation that are opposite in sign to what standard macroeconomic models would predict. This evidence has been viewed as supportive of a "Fed information effect" channel of monetary policy, whereby an FOMC tightening (easing) communicates that the economy is stronger (weaker) than the public had expected. We show that these empirical results are also consistent with a "Fed response to news" channel, in which incoming, publicly available economic news causes both the Fed to change monetary policy and the private sector to revise its forecasts. We provide substantial new evidence that distinguishes between these two channels and strongly favors the latter; for example, (i) regressions that include the previously omitted public economic news, (ii) a new survey that we conduct of Blue Chip forecasters, and (iii) high-frequency financial market responses to FOMC announcements all suggest that the Fed and private sector are simply responding to the same public news, with relatively little role for a "Fed information effect".

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States increased to 15.90 points in July from -4 points in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This series is found in Assets and Liabilities of FDIC-Insured Commercial Banks and Savings Institutions.

The Quarterly Banking Profile is a quarterly publication that provides the earliest comprehensive summary of financial results for all FDIC-insured institutions.

See Notes to Users (https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/quarterly-banking-profile/qbp/timeseries/qbpnot.pdf) for more information.

Between 2013 and 2023, the Federal Reserve's earnings remittances to the United States Department of the Treasury experienced significant fluctuations. The remittances reached their highest point in 2015. However, in 2023, these remittances took an unprecedented turn, amounting to approximately negative *** billion U.S. dollars - a dramatic decrease compared to previous years. The unusual situation of negative earnings remittances typically occurs during periods of rapidly rising interest rates. As the Fed increases interest rates to combat inflation, it pays higher interest on reserves held by commercial banks. Simultaneously, the value of its bond holdings may decrease, potentially leading to unrealized losses. When these costs surpass the Fed's income from its assets, it results in negative earnings, effectively creating a deferred asset rather than making a payment to the Treasury.

I estimate the effects of FOMC announcements, post-FOMC press conferences, and speeches and Congressional testimony by the Fed Chair on stock prices, Treasury yields, and interest rate futures from 1988–2019. I show that for all but the very shortest-maturity interest rate futures, Fed Chair speeches are more important than FOMC announcements. My results suggest that the previous literature’s focus on FOMC announcements has ignored the most important source of variation in U.S. monetary policy.

View the total value of the assets of all Federal Reserve Banks as reported in the weekly balance sheet.

This spreadsheet contains data for Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, UK, and US for the period 1810 – 1995. The data reported are for specie, M0, M2, prices, and output. The results in Rolnick-Weber, Journal of Political Economy (1997) are based on the data in this spreadsheet. For a description of how the data are constructed, see Rolnick and Weber, Staff Report 175 (1995) : https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/staff-reports/inflation-money-and-output-under-alternative-monetary-standards.

This zip file contains all of the programs and data necessary to replicate the results, tables, and figures
in the following paper:

Shapiro, Adam H., and Daniel J. Wilson (2021). "Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis," forthcoming at Review of Economic Studies.

We provide survey results from asking consumers questions related to the COVID-19 outbreak. Released weekly until May 4, 2022.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in June from 2.40 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

Russia FX REPO Auctions Results: 1 Week: Amount Allotted data was reported at 100.000 USD mn in 05 Sep 2017. This stayed constant from the previous number of 100.000 USD mn for 29 Aug 2017. Russia FX REPO Auctions Results: 1 Week: Amount Allotted data is updated weekly, averaging 85.900 USD mn from Nov 2014 (Median) to 05 Sep 2017, with 81 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.893 USD bn in 17 Mar 2015 and a record low of 1.400 USD mn in 22 Sep 2015. Russia FX REPO Auctions Results: 1 Week: Amount Allotted data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by The Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Russian Federation – Table RU.KAG002: FX REPO Operations: The Central Bank of the Russian Federation: 1 Week Term.

Inflation Nowcasting Monthly Month-Over-Month is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Russia FX REPO Auctions Results: 1 Week: Weighted Repo Rate data was reported at 3.201 % pa in 05 Sep 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.197 % pa for 29 Aug 2017. Russia FX REPO Auctions Results: 1 Week: Weighted Repo Rate data is updated weekly, averaging 2.358 % pa from Nov 2014 (Median) to 05 Sep 2017, with 81 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.750 % pa in 29 Dec 2015 and a record low of 0.666 % pa in 20 Jan 2015. Russia FX REPO Auctions Results: 1 Week: Weighted Repo Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by The Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Russian Federation – Table RU.KAG002: FX REPO Operations: The Central Bank of the Russian Federation: 1 Week Term.

Graph and download economic data for Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: All: Wednesday Level (TREAST) from 2002-12-18 to 2025-07-23 about maturity, securities, Treasury, and USA.