Graph and download economic data for Low Value of the Federal Funds Rate for the Indicated Date Published in The Wall Street Journal (FFWSJLOW) from 1932-06-01 to 1954-06-30 about funds, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for High Value of the Federal Funds Rate for the Indicated Date Published in The Wall Street Journal (FFWSJHIGH) from 1932-06-01 to 1954-06-28 about funds, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Natural Gas Price: Henry Hub, LA (DISCONTINUED) (GASPRICE) from Nov 1993 to Feb 2014 about henry hub, gas, commodities, price, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (DISCONTINUED) from Jan 1946 to Jul 2013 about west, WTI, intermediate, oil, commodities, price, and USA.

Data was obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Surveys of Professional Forecasters, and the Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey. Judgments from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia about nominal GDP and housing starts concern annual percentage growth in seasonally adjusted values, while judgments about unemployment concern seasonally adjusted workforce percentages. Judgments from the Wall Street Journal also concern annual percentage growth, except for unemployment, which concerns percentages of the workforce. All judgments concern the US macroeconomic system.Surveys of Expectations.

Evidence strongly suggests that greater judgment variance is associated with greater collective error squared.Testing H6: Positive association between CE2 and var(eT).

Evidence strongly suggests that greater judgment variance is associated with greater average individual error.Testing H5: Positive association between and var(eT).

Evidence suggests that judgment variance is greater when the true value is more extreme. These patterns are, unlike the patterns presented in Table 2 - Table 7, inconsistent with predictions of the AQ model under the applied assumptions. The discussion section includes an explanation of why these patterns may occur using AQ model logic.Testing H7: No association between var(eT) and .

Evidence mildly suggests that negatively skewed judgment distributions are associated with positive collective error, or alternatively, that negative skew of the judgment distribution signals underestimation by the collective. The reverse occurs for positively skewed distributions.Testing H3: Negative association between and .

Graph and download economic data for Bank Prime Loan Rate (WPRIME) from 1955-08-10 to 2025-08-27 about prime, loans, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Bank Prime Loan Rate Changes: Historical Dates of Changes and Rates (PRIME) from 1955-08-04 to 2024-12-20 about prime, loans, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Bank Prime Loan Rate (DPRIME) from 1955-08-04 to 2025-08-19 about prime, loans, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.