Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

Abstract (en): This data collection was used in the book, "Committee Decisions on Monetary Policy: Evidence from Historical Records of the Federal Open Market Committee," by Henry Chappell, Rob Roy McGregor, and Todd Vermilyea, which examined the monetary policy preferences of members of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the process by which its members' preferences were translated into policy decisions. Chapter 4 Data files related to Chapter 4 of the book are contained in: Ch04WebFiles.zip. See the readme file contained within that zip file for documentation. Chapter 5 All data described in Chapter 5 is subsequently employed in Chapters 6-8. Descriptions are provided below in the sections for those chapters. Chapter 6 Data files related to Chapter 6 are contained in Chapter06_Data_for_Web.zip. See the readme file contained within that zip file for documentation. Many data files for Chapter 6 are the same as those used in Chapter 7. More details are provided below for Chapter 7. Chapter 7 Data and programs for this chapter come from the JMCB article from which the chapter is drawn. Data files related to the JMCB article are contained in: ChappellMcGregorVermilyea_Data_011503.zip. See the JMCB.pdf file contained within that zip file for documentation. Section 7.5.2 of this chapter also uses data describing the order of speaking within meetings. We have used this data more extensively in our working paper, "The Persuasive Power of the Chairman: Arthur Burns and the FOMC." Data for that paper is provided in the: WEA_BeforeAfter_Data_Archive.zip. Chapter 8 Much of the data (and methods) used in Chapter 6 are used again in Chapter 8. Relevant data and program files and documentation are provided in: Chapter08_Data_for Web.zip. Funding insitution(s): National Science Foundation (SBR-9423095, 9422850, 9121941). These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

The data show what are basically frequency distributions of interest rate projections by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The twelve FOMC members vote on (and determine) the federal funds rate, but they also give their projections for future federal funds rates. The projections fall into the ranges given in the first column. Then the projection counts are tallied by current and future FOMC meeting months.

The following is from the Fed FOMC member projections website: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230920.htm

Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median (UNRATEMD) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, civilian, median, unemployment, rate, and USA.

🏛️ Federal Reserve Document Scraper

1. Dataset description

This repository contains code for downloading and organizing Federal Reserve documents from the official Federal Reserve Board website.

These files were used as part of my NLP project. While collecting data, my data collection code is inspired by centralbank_analysis by yukit-k. However, that implementation had some limitations:

❌ Incomplete handling of newer HTML structures on the Fed website

❌ No support for Greenbook/Tealbook files

❌ File naming and folder structure not ideal for downstream processing

❌ No handling of failed downloads or noisy formatting

So I made som key Improvements:

✅ Supports both Greenbook and Minutes. You can choose which type to download

✅ Automatic directory organization. Files are saved using a consistent format as:

FOMC_[document type]_YYYY-MM-DD

✅ Duplicate check & resume support: Prevents redundant downloads and handles broken links gracefully

✅ Modular and extensible codebase Easy to extend for other Fed documents (e.g., SEP, transcripts)

2. Data detail

This repository contains modules for downloading and processing various official publications of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). These documents, produced and released by the Federal Reserve, provide detailed insight into U.S. monetary policy formation, communication, and economic analysis over time.

Below is a reference guide to the major FOMC document types represented in this repository.

📅 FomcAgenda.py – Meeting Agendas

Agendas are created by the FOMC Secretariat in coordination with the Chair and outline the topics of discussion for each meeting, including standard items (e.g., open market operations, economic outlook) and special topics. Participants receive the agenda about one week in advance.

📄 FomcStatement.py – Policy Statements

FOMC statements are brief summaries of monetary policy decisions released immediately after each meeting. These statements have become a key communication tool since 1994 and are now issued after every scheduled meeting, even if policy remains unchanged.

📝 FomcMinutes.py – Meeting Minutes

Minutes provide a concise, narrative summary of policy discussions and rationales. Since 2004, they are released three weeks after each meeting. The minutes include details on voting outcomes and dissenting views, and are eventually included in the Fed’s Annual Report.

🧾 FomcPresConfScript.py – Press Conference Transcripts

Beginning in 2011, the Fed Chair has held press conferences following certain FOMC meetings. These transcripts document the Chair’s remarks and responses to journalists, offering additional context and forward guidance. Released shortly after the meeting.

🗣️ FomcMeetingScript.py – Meeting Transcripts

Verbatim transcripts of FOMC meetings, produced from audio recordings and lightly edited for readability. They are released with a 5-year delay. For meetings prior to 1994, transcripts were reconstructed from raw records and may contain transcription uncertainties.

📚 FomcGreenbook.py – Greenbook (1964–2010)

The Greenbook, officially titled Current Economic and Financial Conditions, was prepared by Board staff and delivered to FOMC members six days before each meeting. It provided forecasts, data analyses, and economic outlooks.

Part 1: Summary and forecast

Part 2: Detailed breakdowns

Supplement: Late-breaking updates

📘 FomcBlueBook.py – Bluebook (1965–2010)

The Bluebook, titled Monetary Policy Alternatives, outlined potential policy options and risks. It was distributed shortly after the Greenbook and informed FOMC decisions. The document evolved from earlier versions like Money Market and Reserve Relationships.

🧠 FomcTealbook.py – Tealbook (2010–Present)

The Tealbook replaced both the Greenbook and Bluebook in June 2010. It is split into two parts:

Tealbook A: Current Situation and Outlook — Forecasts and financial developments

Tealbook B: Strategies and Alternatives — Policy options and simulations

Both are released with a 5-year lag.

📙 FomcBeigeBook.py – Beige Book

The Beige Book, published eight times a year, summarizes anecdotal economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. Based on business surveys, interviews, and internal reports, it is released ~two weeks before each meeting.

🧾 FomcTestimony.py – Testimony before Congress

This includes the Chair’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and other testimonies. These communications explain the Fed’s outlook and policies directly to lawmakers and the public.

📚 References

Federal Reserve – FOMC Archive

Wikipedia – Federal Open Market Committee

FOMC Meeting Minutes Dataset (Year 1993+, updated following each release)

Overview

This dataset contains the detailed minutes of the meetings held by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from 1993 onwards. The FOMC, a key component of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, is responsible for setting national monetary policy. The minutes provide a comprehensive record of the committee's discussions, including reviews of economic and financial conditions, deliberations on policy options, the range of participants' views, the rationale behind policy decisions, and the specific votes cast by each member. They offer significantly more detail than the policy statements released immediately after the meetings.

Background on Meeting Minutes

The minutes of each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee provide a timely summary of significant policy issues addressed by meeting participants. The minutes record all decisions taken by the Committee with respect to these policy issues and explain the reasoning behind these decisions. From their emergence in their present form in February 1993 until December 2004, the minutes were published approximately three days after the Committee's subsequent meeting. In December 2004, the Committee decided to expedite the release of its minutes. Since then, the minutes have been made available to the public three weeks after the date of the policy decision, thus reducing the lag in their release by an average of about three weeks. The minutes are subsequently published in the Board's Annual Report.

Data Description

Each row in the dataset represents the minutes from a specific FOMC meeting. The dataset includes the following fields:

• Date: The last day of the FOMC meeting.
• Text: The full, official text of the meeting minutes, often including lists of attendees, summaries of staff reports, detailed accounts of committee discussions, policy directives, and voting records (including dissents).
• Chair: The Chair of the Federal Reserve who presided over the meeting documented in the minutes.

In January 2000, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) instituted the practice of issuing a "balance of risks" statement along with their policy decision immediately following each FOMC meeting. The authors evaluate the use of the balance-of-risks statement and the market's interpretation of it. They find that the balance-of-risks statement is one of the factors that market participants use to determine the likelihood that the FOMC will adjust its target for the federal funds rate at their next meeting. Moreover, they find that, on some occasions, the FOMC behaved in such a way as to encourage the use of the balance-of-risks statement for this purpose. The clarifying statements that sometimes accompany these balance-of-risks statements, as well as general remarks made by the Chairman and other FOMC members, often provide additional useful information.

Overview with Chart & Report: FED Interest Rate Decision is made on a predetermined date during the vote among the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concerning the Federal Reserve short-term interest rates to be

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Median (GDPC1MD) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, median, real, GDP, rate, and USA.

In 1998, University of Iowa faculty members created their own futures markets. These experimental markets, designed to provide insights into the behavior of traders and naturally occurring markets, are still going strong. Their clever design gives them another practical use: They can be used to predict future events such as election outcomes and Federal Open Market Committee voting.

Scholars often use voting data to estimate central bankers' policy preferences but consensus voting is commonplace. To get around this, we combine topic-based text analysis and scaling methods to generate theoretically motivated comparative measures of central bank preferences on the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee leading up to the financial crisis in a way that does not depend on voting behavior. We apply these measures to a number of applications in the literature. For example, we find that FOMC members that are Federal Reserve Bank Presidents from districts experiencing higher unemployment are also more likely to emphasize unemployment in their speech. We also confirm that committee members on schedule to vote are more likely to express consensus opinion than their off schedule voting counterparts.

The following statement is from Jeff Schmid, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, regarding his vote at the Federal Open Market Committee’s October 28-29, 2025, meeting.

President Hammack issued a statement about her vote at the December 17-18, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) influences market interest rates by changing the administered rates that it controls, such as the interest rates on overnight repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements. This requires an ample level of bank reserves. Quantitative tightening (QT) reduces the level of reserves. To guard against supply and demand shocks that drive reserves too low, the FOMC may need to hold a buffer above the point at which reserves become scarce. In this Economic Commentary , I present evidence based on inventory theory that the estimated buffer might be relatively small, though the true number is uncertain. Treating the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet as inventory helps to estimate the level of reserves needed to stay above the scarce threshold.