The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by June 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

Graph and download economic data for Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits with F.R. Banks, Other Than Reserve Balances: U.S. Treasury, General Account: Week Average (WTREGEN) from 1986-01-08 to 2025-07-16 about general accounts, accounting, balance, reserves, deposits, Treasury, banks, depository institutions, and USA.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

Graph and download economic data for Initial Claims (ICSA) from 1967-01-07 to 2025-07-12 about initial claims, headline figure, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Real Disposable Personal Income (DSPIC96) from Jan 1959 to May 2025 about disposable, personal income, personal, income, real, and USA.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States increased to -12.70 points in June from -15.30 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for Money Market Funds; Total Financial Assets, Level (MMMFFAQ027S) from Q4 1945 to Q1 2025 about MMMF, IMA, financial, assets, and USA.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Net Exports of Goods and Services (NETEXP) from Q1 1947 to Q1 2025 about exports, Net, goods, services, GDP, and USA.

Canada's inflation rate experienced significant fluctuations from 2018 to 2025. Inflation peaked at *** percent in June 2022 before steadily declining to *** percent by December 2024. In early 2025, inflation began to increase again, rising to *** percent in February, and dropping to *** percent in March. In response to rising inflation between 2020 and 2022, the Bank of Canada implemented aggressive interest rate hikes. The bank rate reached a maximum of **** percent in July 2023 and remained stable until June 2024. As inflationary pressures eased in the second half of 2024, the central bank reduced interest rates to *** percent in December 2024. In 2025, the bank rate witnessed two cuts, standing at ***** percent in May 2025. This pattern reflected broader global economic trends, with most advanced and emerging economies experiencing similar inflationary challenges and monetary policy adjustments. Global context of inflation and interest rates The Canadian experience aligns with the broader international trend of central banks raising policy rates to combat inflation. Between 2021 and 2023, nearly all advanced and emerging economies increased their central bank rates. However, a shift occurred in the latter half of 2024, with many countries, including Canada, beginning to lower rates. This change suggests a new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Notably, among surveyed countries, Russia maintained the highest interest rate in early 2025, while Japan had the lowest rate. Comparison with the United States The United States experienced a similar trajectory in inflation and interest rates. U.S. inflation peaked at *** percent in June 2022, slightly higher than Canada's peak. The Federal Reserve responded with a series of rate hikes, reaching **** percent in August 2023. This rate remained unchanged until September 2024, when the first cut since September 2021 was implemented. In contrast, Canada's bank rate peaked at **** percent and began decreasing earlier, with cuts in June and July 2024. These differences highlight the nuanced approaches of central banks in managing their respective economies amid global inflationary pressures.

Economic performance and construction activity are two major factors influencing growth for interior designers. Residential and commercial consumers are interior designers' main downstream markets, making up over 80% of their core revenue streams. While both adjust their spending on interior design based on economic conditions, the mix of residential and commercial designers balances the industry. For example, positive trends in consumer spending and the housing market have offset shakier activity in the nonresidential sphere. Rising consumer spending, which grew an annualized 3.9% over the past five years, benefited independent designers, the bulk of the profession, as homeowners spent more on interior design. Broader housing growth facilitated a wider revenue niche across residential design services, with an estimated 1.5 million new housing units completed as of May 2025, per the US Census Bureau. Revenue grew at a CAGR of 4.2% to an estimated $27.2 billion over the past five years, including an estimated 0.4% boost in 2025 alone. Disruptions caused by high inflation and interest rates, which had an outsized effect in influencing construction demand and spending habits throughout all sectors of the economy, didn't spare interior designers. Yet, how these disruptions played out for interior designers was mixed — for designers specializing in residential projects, growth in housing starts and the homeownership rate pushed homebuilders and homeowners to designers to create home layouts. Underlying this growth was a steady adoption of automated tools, like AI, that allowed interior designers to facilitate design plans more efficiently, which bolstered profit. Consumer trends also supported an uptick in interior design services; households sought out interior designers to revamp living spaces into offices, classrooms and entertainment centers amid the steady adoption of hybrid work policies. Interior designers are poised to benefit from the continued growth in consumer confidence and broader bullish feelings on the economy. Although consumer trends are favorable, the uncertainty of interest rates will create the largest roadblock to robust growth, particularly as interest rates are stagnant at 4.3% as of May 2025 per the Federal Reserve. In addition, consumers' interest in revamping their living spaces will be more muted as consumers spend more time away from home. Nonetheless, rapid growth in digital media will allow designers to advertise their services more efficiently via mediums like Instagram. Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.1% to an estimated $30.3 billion over the next five years.

Graph and download economic data for Commercial Real Estate Prices for United States (COMREPUSQ159N) from Q1 2005 to Q3 2024 about real estate, commercial, rate, and USA.

Redbook Index in the United States increased by 5.10 percent in the week ending July 19 of 2025 over the same week in the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Redbook Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Companies in the Subprime Auto Loans industry have contended with rising interest rates and significant economic volatility. Several small, specialized creditors have been pushed to bankruptcy because of diminishing profit and growing subprime auto loan delinquencies. According to Fitch Ratings Inc., the index of the 60-day delinquency rate of subprime auto loans reached 6.11% in September 2023 and remained significantly elevated at 6.00% in October 2023 (latest data available), a worse rating than during the great financial crisis. As a result, many businesses have exited the industry. However, in 2024 the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a point and is anticipated to cut rates further in the near future which will positively impact the industry. The pandemic shocked industry revenue in 2020, dampening profit and income for many lenders as stay-at-home orders rendered personal transportation less crucial to many. However, as the economy settles back to normal, many subprime consumers will return to work and lead the industry to growth in the latter part of the period. Overall, industry revenue has lagged at a CAGR of 1.2% to $19.0 billion over the five years to 2024, including an expected jump of 0.4% in 2024 alone. Despite the potential payout of subprime interest rates, many companies in the Auto Leasing, Loans and Sales Financing industry (IBISWorld report 52222) still chose not to expand the number of high-risk loans in their portfolios. Instead, they have sought super-prime and prime borrowers during heightened delinquency rates, which will aid in recovery. Moreover, many primary auto dealers have begun reducing their auto financing divisions to eliminate high-risk borrowers. Moving forward, industry revenue declines will be limited by rising access to credit and growth in consumer confidence, which will accelerate vehicle sales. Also, interest rates are expected to come down as the FED continues to monitor inflation and reduce rates accordingly. In addition, some consumers will seek to lock in financing deals as interest rates continue to be reduced. Overall, industry revenue is forecast to slump at a CAGR of 1.2% to $17.9 billion over the five years to 2029.

Core PCE Price Index Annual Change in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in May from 2.60 percent in April of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Core Pce Price Index Annual Change.

Gold Reserves in the United States remained unchanged at 8133.46 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2025 from 8133.46 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2024. This dataset provides - United States Gold Reserves - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Supply Chain Pressure Index in World decreased to 0 points in June from 0.30 points in May of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Global Supply Chain Pressure Index.