As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: All: Wednesday Level (TREAST) from 2002-12-18 to 2025-03-19 about maturity, securities, Treasury, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T1YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-24 about yield curve, 1-year, spread, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-24 about yield curve, spread, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest 0.9 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately 6.76 trillion U.S. dollars by March 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached eight percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by November 2024, inflation had declined to 2.7 percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at 5.33 percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of 114.3 billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the 58.84 billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over 281 billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of 174.53 billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

Graph and download economic data for Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations (RRPONTSYD) from 2003-02-07 to 2025-03-07 about reverse repos, overnight, trade, securities, Treasury, sales, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BAA10Y) from 1986-01-02 to 2025-03-25 about Baa, spread, 10-year, maturity, bonds, Treasury, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-03-26 about spread, interest rate, interest, 5-year, inflation, rate, and USA.

Abstract (en): The purpose of this data collection effort was to provide an accurate representation of the distribution of elements composing family balance sheets across families in the United States. To that end, the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances was designed to gather household-level information closely comparable to that obtained in the SURVEY OF CONSUMER FINANCES, 1995 (ICPSR 2193). Detailed data were collected on the composition of household budgets, the terms of loans, and relationships with financial institutions. Information was also obtained on the employment history and pension rights of the survey respondent and the spouse or partner of the respondent. Detailed data were also gathered on characteristics of the survey respondent's housing and vehicle(s). In addition to recording data on the economic assets and liabilities of families, the survey examined the attitudes of consumers toward credit use and their reactions to consumer credit regulations, and lines of credit. Demographic variables include age, sex, marital status, housing, and financial independence. Households within the 48 contiguous United States. The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) is based on a dual-frame sample design (see Arthur B. Kennickell and R. Louise Woodburn, "Consistent Weight Design for the 1989, 1992, and 1995 SCFs, and the Distribution of Wealth," August 1997, http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/oss/oss2/method.html for more details). One set of the survey cases was selected from a standard multistage area probability design. This part of the sample, which contributed 2,813 cases to the final set of interviews, is intended to provide good coverage of characteristics, such as home ownership, that are broadly distributed in the population. The other set of the survey cases was selected as a list sample from statistical records (the Individual Tax File) derived from tax data by the Statistics of Income Division of the Internal Revenue Service. These records were made available under strict rules governing confidentiality, the rights of potential respondents to refuse participation in the survey, and the types of information that can be made available. This second sample was designed to disproportionately select families that were likely to be relatively wealthy (see Arthur B. Kennickell, "List Sample Design for the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances," April 1998, http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/oss/oss2/method.html, for a more extended discussion of the design of the list sample). The list sample contributed 1,496 cases to the final set of interviews. Because of the complexity of the SCF design, users cannot apply some of the standard procedures for variance estimation. A set of sample replicates has been created with bootstrap techniques and analysis weights have been computed independently for each replicate. Analysts may use these weights to make approximate estimates of sampling variance. Replicate weights corresponding to both X42000 and X42001 are available. See the codebook for more details. 2006-03-30 File QU3155.ALL.PDF was removed from any previous datasets and flagged as a study-level file, so that it will accompany all downloads.2006-03-30 File CB3155.ALL.PDF was removed from any previous datasets and flagged as a study-level file, so that it will accompany all downloads.2006-03-30 File AP3155.ALL.PDF was removed from any previous datasets and flagged as a study-level file, so that it will accompany all downloads. Funding insitution(s): Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. United States Department of the Treasury. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. United States Department of Health and Human Services. National Institutes of Health. National Institute on Aging. United States Small Business Administration. Government Accountability Office. United States Congress. Joint Committee on Taxation. The data have been optimized and thus have a different record length from the original provided by the principal investigators.The SAS transport files were created using the SAS XPORT engine.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Government: Current Expenditures (FGEXPND) from Q1 1947 to Q4 2024 about expenditures, federal, government, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYFSGDA188S) from 1929 to 2024 about budget, federal, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Receipts as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYFRGDA188S) from 1929 to 2024 about receipts, federal, GDP, and USA.