The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

Inflation Nowcasting Quarterly is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Inflation Nowcasting Monthly Year-Over-Year is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

We collect novel and timely data from advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. The act requires larger employers to notify affected workers at least 60 days before a potential mass layoff. We assemble WARN data from across the United States, and for many large states our data begin in the 1990s. We aggregate these data into an unbalanced, monthly panel of the state-level number of workers affected by WARN notices, and we update this panel twice a month. We also aggregate this panel to a national-level indicator of job loss (the "WARN factor") using a dynamic factor model. Data CollectionWe update the data twice a month by collecting WARN notices from state websites. For many states, we have extended our historical data by using digital archives of the internet and contacting state officials. CitationTo learn more about the data and the dynamic factor model, see:Krolikowski, Pawel M. and Kurt G. Lunsford. 2022. “Advance Layoff Notices and Aggregate Job Loss.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 20-03R. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202003R.File DescriptionThe file labelled WARNFiles_YYYYMMDD.zip in the main directory contains our most recent data. All data included in this zip file were collected as of the date listed in the file name. Previous vintages of our data appear in the `Archived_Vintages’ folder, with the same naming convention. The zip files contain three files: 1. README.txt 2. WARNData_NSA_YYYYMMDD.csv This .csv contains the number of workers affected by WARN notices by state and month. These data are not seasonally adjusted. These data are the input into the dynamic factor model. 3. WARNFactors_YYYYMMDD.csv This .csv contains the output of the dynamic factor model. The output is labeled as follows: WARN Factor: the estimates of the factor from the dynamic factor model. MSE: the estimated mean squared errors of the WARN factor. WARN_hat: the number of workers affected by WARN notices as implied by the WARN factor. WARN_sum: the sum of the number of workers affected by WARN notices from several states that form a balanced panel beginning in January 2006. These states can change every update.DisclaimerThese data are updated by the authors and are not an official product of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Median Consumer Price Index is a part of the Median CPI indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Sep 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Federal Funds Rates Based on 7 Simple Rules is a part of the Simple Monetary Policy Rules indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT1YE) from Jan 1982 to Sep 2025 about 1-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The median CPI is a measure of inflation computed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. It ranks the components of CPI inflation and picks the one in the middle. Its construction makes it less sensitive to short-lived price fluctuations, thereby better capturing the trend in prices. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF1YR) from Jan 1982 to Sep 2025 about 1-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

We present federal funds rates coming from a range of simple monetary policy rules based on multiple economic forecasts. Use our tool to create your own rule. Released quarterly.

Graph and download economic data for Median Consumer Price Index (MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE) from Jan 1983 to Aug 2025 about median, CPI, rate, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

Expected Inflation Term Structure is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Ten-Year Expected Inflation and Real and Inflation Risk Premia is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

We provide survey results from asking consumers questions related to the COVID-19 outbreak. Released weekly until May 4, 2022.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.