The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March, and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged throughout the following months. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate - from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April - mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

We present federal funds rates coming from a range of simple monetary policy rules based on multiple economic forecasts. Use our tool to create your own rule. Released quarterly.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for CSBS Community Bank Sentiment, Monetary Policy Index (CBSIMP) from Q2 2019 to Q2 2025 about community, business sentiment, banks, depository institutions, indexes, and USA.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by June 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

It is commonly believed that the Fed's ability to control the federal funds rate stems from its ability to alter the supply of liquidity in the overnight market through open market operations. This paper uses daily data compiled by the author from the records of the Trading Desk of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York over the period March 1, 1984, through December 31, 1996. The author analyzes the Desk's use of its operating procedure in implementing monetary policy and the extent to which open market operations affect the federal funds rate-- the liquidity effect. The author finds that the operating procedure was used to guide daily open market operations. However, there is little evidence of a liquidity effect at the daily frequency and even less evidence at lower frequencies. Consistent with the absence of a liquidity effect, open market operations appear to be a relatively unimportant source of liquidity to the federal funds market.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

The FRB/US model is a large-scale estimated general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy that has been in use at the Federal Reserve Board since 1996. The model is designed for detailed analysis of monetary and fiscal policies. One distinctive feature compared to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models is the ability to switch between alternative assumptions about expectations formation of economic agents. Another is the models level of detail: FRB/US contains all major components of the product and income sides of the U.S. national accounts. Since its original development, the model has continuously undergone changes to cope with the evolving structure of the economy, including conceptual revisions to sectoral definitions of the national accounts.

This dataset contains the textual data of Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statements and minutes. Its purpose is to provide a historical archive of communications from the US central bank, offering valuable context and insights into monetary policy decisions and economic outlooks over time. The dataset is regularly updated, ensuring access to the latest official communications.

Columns

• Date: This column specifies the date of the actual FOMC meeting.
• Release Date: This indicates when the statement or minutes were officially released to the public. It is important to note that minutes are typically released with approximately a three-week lag from the meeting date.
• Type: This column categorises the communication, distinguishing between a formal 'statement' and the more detailed 'minutes' of the meeting.
• Text: This contains the full textual content of each communication release, whether it is a statement or minutes.

Distribution

The dataset is typically provided in a CSV (Comma Separated Values) format. It includes communications from 2 February 2000 to 18 June 2025. The file is updated on a weekly basis with new data sourced directly from the Federal Reserve website. Based on available information, there are approximately 420 records within the specified date range. The dataset comprises roughly 52% minutes and 48% statements.

Usage

This dataset is ideal for various applications and use cases, particularly within finance, banking, and economics. It can be used for: * Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, such as sentiment analysis or topic modelling on central bank communications. * Economic research to analyse policy shifts, communication strategies, and their impact on financial markets. * Financial modelling and forecasting, by integrating insights from official monetary policy communications. * Academic studies on central banking, macroeconomic policy, and financial history.

Coverage

The dataset covers the period from 2 February 2000 to 18 June 2025, providing an extensive historical record of FOMC communications. While the content focuses on US monetary policy, which is inherently US-centric, the dataset's availability is global, making it accessible to users worldwide. There are no specific notes on data availability for certain demographic groups or years, as the data represents official public releases.

License

CC0

Who Can Use It

This dataset is designed for a wide range of users, including: * Financial analysts and economists seeking to understand and forecast monetary policy decisions. * Data scientists and machine learning engineers developing NLP models for financial text. * Academic researchers in economics, finance, and political science studying central bank behaviour and communication. * Government policy advisors interested in historical policy decisions and their effects. * Journalists and media professionals reporting on economic and financial news.

Dataset Name Suggestions

• Federal Reserve FOMC Communications Archive
• US Monetary Policy Statements and Minutes
• Central Bank Economic Communications
• FOMC Historical Document Collection

Attributes

Original Data Source: FOMC Meeting Statements & Minutes

Daily Federal Funds Rate from 1928-1954 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33951).

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target.(2) The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate. As previously stated, this rate influences the effective federal funds rate through open market operations or by buying and selling of government bonds (government debt).(2) More specifically, the Federal Reserve decreases liquidity by selling government bonds, thereby raising the federal funds rate because banks have less liquidity to trade with other banks. Similarly, the Federal Reserve can increase liquidity by buying government bonds, decreasing the federal funds rate because banks have excess liquidity for trade. Whether the Federal Reserve wants to buy or sell bonds depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may set a higher federal funds rate target to temper economic activity. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may set a lower federal funds rate target to spur greater economic activity. Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets. The federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2) References (1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. "Federal funds." Fedpoints, August 2007. (2) Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Monetary Policy (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm)".

For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

This excel file contains our updated versions of the Nakamura and Steinsson (2018) and Gurkaynak, Sack, and Swanson (2005) high-frequency monetary policy surprises using SOFR futures. The views are those of the authors and not of the Federal Reserve Board, System, or Governors.

Graph and download economic data for Monetary Base: Reserve Balances (BOGMBBM) from Jan 1959 to May 2025 about monetary base, balance, and USA.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and May 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet ballooned following its announcement to carry out quantitative easing to increase the liquidity of U.S. banks in early 2020. The balance sheet continued to grow in the following period as well, with a downward trend in 2023. As of February 29, 2024, the Fed's balance sheet amounted to roughly 7.6 trillion U.S. dollars. The most drastic increase in the observed period took place in the first half of 2020. This measure was taken to increase the money supply and stimulate economic growth in the wake of the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve was not the only institution that implemented an expansionary monetary policy in response to the pandemic. For instance, the European Central Bank expanded its money supply in March 2020 and kept doing so over the following months. How do central banks increase the amount of money in circulation? Central banks can increase the money circulating in the economy in many ways. For instance, they can decrease banks’ reserve requirements to stimulate lending or decrease the interest rates to reduce the cost of borrowing for commercial banks. Alternatively, central banks can engage in open market operations (OMO) and buy securities such as government bonds from commercial banks or institutions. By conducting open market operations, the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet by seven trillion U.S. dollars between 2007 and 2023. All these measures aim to increase bank loans to entrepreneurs and consumers in order to stimulate employment and economic growth. Impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. economy The COVID-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact on national economies worldwide, and the United States was no exception. During the early months of the crisis, many lost their jobs, mostly those in lower-income categories. As a consequence, many Americans found it difficult to pay their rent and cover basic household expenses. Furthermore, in April 2022, most small business owners claimed that the pandemic had a large or moderate negative effect on their businesses. Overall, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States decreased by roughly 2.2 percent in 2020. In the following years, however, it increased notably, surpassing 25 trillion U.S. dollars in 2022.

FOMC Meeting Policy Statements Dataset (Year 2000+, updated monthly)

  Overview

This dataset contains the policy statements released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) following each of its meetings from year 2000 onwords. The FOMC, a component of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, determines monetary policy in the United States. The statements provide insights into the committee’s policy decisions, economic outlook, and forward guidance.

  Background on Policy… See the full description on the dataset page: https://huggingface.co/datasets/Coding-Fish/fomc-statements.

IOER (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IOER)) and the interest rate on required reserves (IORR (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORR)) were replaced with a single rate, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB)). See the source's announcement (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20210602a.htm) for more details.

The interest rate on reserve balances (IORB rate) is the rate of interest that the Federal Reserve pays on balances maintained by or on behalf of eligible institutions in master accounts at Federal Reserve Banks. The interest rate is set by the Board of Governors, and it is an important tool of monetary policy.

See Policy Tools (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reqresbalances.htm) and the IORB FAQs (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/iorb-faqs.htm) for more information.

For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).

In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.