View economic output, reported as the nominal value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, Midpoint (GDPC1CTMLR) from 2009-02-18 to 2025-06-18 about projection, real, GDP, rate, and USA.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for Real gross domestic product per capita (A939RX0Q048SBEA) from Q1 1947 to Q2 2025 about per capita, real, GDP, and USA.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by June 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March, and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged throughout the following months. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate - from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April - mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, Low (GDPC1CTL) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, real, GDP, rate, and USA.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, High was 2.00000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, High reached a record high of 5.50000 in January of 2021 and a record low of -2.20000 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, High - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

An index that can be used to gauge broad financial conditions and assess how these conditions are related to future economic growth. The index is broadly consistent with how the FRB/US model generally relates key financial variables to economic activity. The index aggregates changes in seven financial variables: the federal funds rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the triple-B corporate bond yield, the Dow Jones total stock market index, the Zillow house price index, and the nominal broad dollar index using weights implied by the FRB/US model and other models in use at the Federal Reserve Board. These models relate households' spending and businesses' investment decisions to changes in short- and long-term interest rates, house and equity prices, and the exchange value of the dollar, among other factors. These financial variables are weighted using impulse response coefficients (dynamic multipliers) that quantify the cumulative effects of unanticipated permanent changes in each financial variable on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the subsequent year. The resulting index is named Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G). One appealing feature of the FCI-G is that its movements can be used to measure whether financial conditions have tightened or loosened, to summarize how changes in financial conditions are associated with real GDP growth over the following year, or both.

Content

St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index (ENI) uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For more information, see Grover, Sean P.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; and McCracken, Michael W. “A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth" (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2016/12/05/a-macroeconomic-news-index-for-constructing-nowcasts-of-u-s-real-gross-domestic-product-growth/ )

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 2013-04-01

• Observation End : 2019-10-01

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Ferdinand Stöhr on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Low was 0.60000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Low reached a record high of 5.30000 in January of 2021 and a record low of -5.50000 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Low was 1.50000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Low reached a record high of 2.40000 in May of 2009 and a record low of 1.50000 in June of 2017. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

United States Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth, FCI-G Index (OneYr Lookback) data was reported at 0.005 Index in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of -0.179 Index for Feb 2025. United States Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth, FCI-G Index (OneYr Lookback) data is updated monthly, averaging -0.299 Index from Jan 1990 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 423 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.084 Index in Feb 2009 and a record low of -1.608 Index in Mar 2021. United States Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth, FCI-G Index (OneYr Lookback) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

Key information about United States M2 Growth

• United States Money Supply M2 increased 3.9 % YoY in Jan 2025, compared with a growth of 3.8 % in the previous month
• US Money Supply M2 growth data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1960 to Jan 2025
• The data reached an all-time high of 26.6 % in Feb 2021 and a record low of -4.6 % in Apr 2023

• In the latest reports, US Foreign Exchange Reserves was measured at 34.9 USD bn in Dec 2024
• The Foreign Exchange Reserves equaled 0.1 Months of Import in Dec 2024
• US Domestic Credit reached 30,648.3 USD bn in Mar 2024, representing an drop of 0.3 % YoY
• The country's Non Performing Loans Ratio stood at 1.7 % in Dec 2024, compared with the ratio of 1.5 % in the previous quarter
• Household Debt of US reached 18,036.0 USD bn in Dec 2024, accounting for 61.7 % of the country's Nominal GDP

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

United States Median Wage Growth: 3-Mo Mov Avg: Weekly data was reported at 4.100 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.400 % for Mar 2025. United States Median Wage Growth: 3-Mo Mov Avg: Weekly data is updated monthly, averaging 3.900 % from Mar 1997 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 338 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.000 % in Aug 2022 and a record low of 1.000 % in Oct 2009. United States Median Wage Growth: 3-Mo Mov Avg: Weekly data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G113: Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker: 3-Month Moving Average.

Graph and download economic data for Gross Domestic Product for World (NYGDPMKTPCDWLD) from 1960 to 2024 about , and GDP.

Graph and download economic data for Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP by Industry: Gross Domestic Product (CPGDPAI) from Q2 2005 to Q1 2025 about GDP, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Nominal Gross Domestic Product for United States (NGDPNSAXDCUSQ) from Q1 1950 to Q1 2025 about GDP and USA.