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U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/1b40e0ca-7d2e-4fbc-8cfd-df3f09e4fdb8">

To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

https:/...

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

United States Federal Reserve Banks (FRB): Total Assets data was reported at 4,139.731 USD bn in 31 Oct 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4,173.070 USD bn for 24 Oct 2018. United States Federal Reserve Banks (FRB): Total Assets data is updated weekly, averaging 876.108 USD bn from Jun 1996 (Median) to 31 Oct 2018, with 1167 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4,516.077 USD bn in 14 Jan 2015 and a record low of 447.351 USD bn in 24 Jul 1996. United States Federal Reserve Banks (FRB): Total Assets data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.KB028: Balance Sheet: Federal Reserve Banks.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN) from Q1 1966 to Q2 2025 about public, debt, federal, government, and USA.

Content

Source ID: FL313066220.Q

For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx

For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FL313066220&t=

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the Federal Reserve organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1945-10-01

• Observation End : 2019-04-01

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Michael on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

Graph and download economic data for Reserves of Depository Institutions: Total (TOTRESNS) from Jan 1959 to Oct 2025 about adjusted, reserves, and USA.

Content

More details about each file are in the individual file descriptions.

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the Federal Reserve organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Loïc Mermilliod on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

United States Federal Reserve Banks (FRB): Reserve Bank Credit (BC) data was reported at 4,134.059 USD bn in 24 Oct 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4,136.254 USD bn for 17 Oct 2018. United States Federal Reserve Banks (FRB): Reserve Bank Credit (BC) data is updated weekly, averaging 2,300.867 USD bn from Dec 2002 (Median) to 24 Oct 2018, with 828 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4,476.465 USD bn in 14 Jan 2015 and a record low of 673.923 USD bn in 29 Jan 2003. United States Federal Reserve Banks (FRB): Reserve Bank Credit (BC) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.KB029: Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions.

Content

For further information please see the Board of Governors web site at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/default.htm http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/about.htm

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the Federal Reserve organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1980-01-01

• Observation End : 2019-07-01

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 2.500 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.500 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.400 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.000 % in Sep 2020 and a record low of 2.000 % in Sep 2017. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.A026: NIPA 2023: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Price: saar: QoQ: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBills over Same-Qtr(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductPI Inflation: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data was reported at 0.049 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -0.308 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBills over Same-Qtr(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductPI Inflation: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.841 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 148 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.876 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of -1.903 % in Mar 2013. United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBills over Same-Qtr(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductPI Inflation: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

United States - Total Borrowings from the Federal Reserve was 6518.10000 Bil. of $ in September of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Total Borrowings from the Federal Reserve reached a record high of 698785.60000 in November of 2008 and a record low of 0.00100 in April of 1940. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Total Borrowings from the Federal Reserve - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Free Reserves Held at Federal Reserve Banks, All Member Banks for United States (M14189USM144NNBR) from Jan 1929 to Apr 1967 about reserves, banks, depository institutions, and USA.

United States FRBOP: Ann YS: Moody's Baa over 10Yr Tbonds: Mean: Current Plus 1 Yr data was reported at 1.908 % in Jun 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.023 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP: Ann YS: Moody's Baa over 10Yr Tbonds: Mean: Current Plus 1 Yr data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.581 % from Mar 2010 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 34 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.121 % in Sep 2012 and a record low of 1.908 % in Jun 2018. United States FRBOP: Ann YS: Moody's Baa over 10Yr Tbonds: Mean: Current Plus 1 Yr data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

United States FRBOP Forecast: YS: Moody's: Baa over Aaa: Mean: Plus 3 Qtrs data was reported at 0.785 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.714 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: YS: Moody's: Baa over Aaa: Mean: Plus 3 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.994 % from Mar 2010 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 34 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.321 % in Mar 2016 and a record low of 0.714 % in Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: YS: Moody's: Baa over Aaa: Mean: Plus 3 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The 'Fed Interest Rate Decision' is an economic event where the Federal Reserve announces changes to the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.-2025-01-29

United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBills over S&N Qtr Ave CPE Inflation: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data was reported at 0.056 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -0.144 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBills over S&N Qtr Ave CPE Inflation: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging -1.214 % from Mar 2007 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 46 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.795 % in Mar 2007 and a record low of -1.944 % in Jun 2012. United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBills over S&N Qtr Ave CPE Inflation: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBillsRate over Same-Qtr Core PCE: Median: Plus 3 Qtrs data was reported at 0.233 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.020 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBillsRate over Same-Qtr Core PCE: Median: Plus 3 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging -0.925 % from Mar 2007 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 46 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.888 % in Sep 2007 and a record low of -1.871 % in Sep 2012. United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBillsRate over Same-Qtr Core PCE: Median: Plus 3 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data was reported at 2.400 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.400 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.000 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.900 % in Sep 2015 and a record low of 0.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.