Graph and download economic data for Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Interest Rates (EMVMACROINTEREST) from Jan 1985 to May 2025 about volatility, uncertainty, equity, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by May 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached * percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

An index that can be used to gauge broad financial conditions and assess how these conditions are related to future economic growth. The index is broadly consistent with how the FRB/US model generally relates key financial variables to economic activity. The index aggregates changes in seven financial variables: the federal funds rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the triple-B corporate bond yield, the Dow Jones total stock market index, the Zillow house price index, and the nominal broad dollar index using weights implied by the FRB/US model and other models in use at the Federal Reserve Board. These models relate households' spending and businesses' investment decisions to changes in short- and long-term interest rates, house and equity prices, and the exchange value of the dollar, among other factors. These financial variables are weighted using impulse response coefficients (dynamic multipliers) that quantify the cumulative effects of unanticipated permanent changes in each financial variable on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the subsequent year. The resulting index is named Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G). One appealing feature of the FCI-G is that its movements can be used to measure whether financial conditions have tightened or loosened, to summarize how changes in financial conditions are associated with real GDP growth over the following year, or both.

Graph and download economic data for Money Market Funds; Total Financial Assets, Level (MMMFFAQ027S) from Q4 1945 to Q1 2025 about MMMF, IMA, financial, assets, and USA.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and March 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

Sharp economic volatility, the continued effects of high interest rates and mixed sentiment among investors created an uneven landscape for stock and commodity exchanges. While trading volumes soared in 2020 due to the pandemic and favorable financial conditions, such as zero percent interest rates from the Federal Reserve, the continued effects of high inflation in 2022 and 2023 resulted in a hawkish pivot on interest rates, which curtailed ROIs across major equity markets. Geopolitical volatility amid the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas wars further exacerbated trade volatility, as many investors pivoted away from traditional equity markets into derivative markets, such as options and futures to better hedge on their investment. Nonetheless, the continued digitalization of trading markets bolstered exchanges, as they were able to facilitate improved client service and stronger market insights for interested investors. Revenue grew an annualized 0.1% to an estimated $20.9 billion over the past five years, including an estimated 1.9% boost in 2025. A core development for exchanges has been the growth of derivative trades, which has facilitated a significant market niche for investors. Heightened options trading and growing attraction to agricultural commodities strengthened service diversification among exchanges. Major companies, such as CME Group Inc., introduced new tradeable food commodities for investors in 2024, further diversifying how clients engage in trades. These trends, coupled with strengthened corporate profit growth, bolstered exchanges’ profit. Despite current uncertainty with interest rates and the pervasive fear over a future recession, the industry is expected to do well during the outlook period. Strong economic conditions will reduce investor uncertainty and increase corporate profit, uplifting investment into the stock market and boosting revenue. Greater levels of research and development will expand the scope of stocks offered because new companies will spring up via IPOs, benefiting exchange demand. Nonetheless, continued threat from substitutes such as electronic communication networks (ECNs) will curtail larger growth, as better technology will enable investors to start trading independently, but effective use of electronic platforms by incumbent exchange giants such as NASDAQ Inc. can help stem this decline by offering faster processing via electronic trade floors and prioritizing client support. Overall, revenue is expected to grow an annualized 3.5% to an estimated $24.8 billion through the end of 2031.

This dataset includes various economic indicators such as stock market performance, inflation rates, GDP, interest rates, employment data, and housing index, all of which are crucial for understanding the state of the economy. By analysing this dataset, one can gain insights into the causes and effects of past recessions in the US, which can inform investment decisions and policy-making.

There are 20 columns and 343 rows spanning 1990-04 to 2022-10

The columns are:

1. Price: Price column refers to the S&P 500 lot price over the years. The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. This variable represents the value of the S&P 500 index from 1980 to present. Industrial Production: This variable measures the output of industrial establishments in the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It reflects the overall health of the manufacturing industry, which is a key component of the US economy.

2. INDPRO: Industrial production measures the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors of the economy. It provides insights into the overall health of the economy, as a decline in industrial production can indicate a slowdown in economic activity. This data can be used by policymakers and investors to assess the state of the economy and make informed decisions.

3. CPI: CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, which measures the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services that consumers purchase. CPI inflation represents the rate at which the prices of goods and services in the economy are increasing.

4. Treasure Bill rate (3 month to 30 Years): Treasury bills (T-bills) are short-term debt securities issued by the US government. This variable represents the interest rates on T-bills with maturities ranging from 3 months to 30 years. It reflects the cost of borrowing money for the government and provides an indication of the overall level of interest rates in the economy.

5. GDP: GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, which is the value of all goods and services produced in a country. This dataset is taking into account only the Nominal GDP values. Nominal GDP represents the total value of goods and services produced in the US economy without accounting for inflation.

6. Rate: The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. It is set by the Federal Reserve and is used as a tool to regulate the money supply in the economy.

7. BBK_Index: The BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

8. Housing Index: This variable represents the value of the housing market in the US. It is calculated based on the prices of homes sold in the market and provides an indication of the overall health of the housing market.

9. Recession binary column: This variable is a binary indicator that takes a value of 1 when the US economy is in a recession and 0 otherwise. It is based on the official business cycle dates provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Current employment status (2); optimistic/pessimistic about investment (2); ability to maintain/increase current income over next twelve months (1); retirement (19); factors that could affect investment environment over next twelve months (8); how long been investing in financial markets (1); rate of return on portfolio (4); overall rate of return for investors (4); good time/not a good time to invest in financial markets (1); value of stock market (1); Federal Reserve Board (2); stock market will be higher/lower/same a year from now (1); percentage of portfolio in different categories (4); recent market conditions (4).

The Federal Reserve implements its monetary policy by using open market operations in United States government securities to target the federal funds rate. A substantial decline in the stock of United States Treasury debt could interfere with the conduct of monetary policy, possibly forcing the Fed to rely more heavily on discount window lending or to conduct open market transactions in other types of securities. Either choice would cause the implementation of monetary policy to resemble the methods used by the Fed before World War II. This paper describes two things: (1) how the Fed implemented monetary policy before the war and (2) the conflicts that arose within the Fed over the allocation of private-sector credit when discount window loans and Fed purchases of private securities were a substantial component of Federal Reserve credit. Those conflicts help explain the Fed's failure to respond vigorously to the Great Depression. The experience suggests that a renewed reliance on the discount window or on open market operations in securities other than those issued by the United States Treasury could hamper the conduct of monetary policy if it leads to increased pressure on the Fed to affect the allocation of credit.

An index that can be used to gauge broad financial conditions and assess how these conditions are related to future economic growth. The index is broadly consistent with how the FRB/US model generally relates key financial variables to economic activity. The index aggregates changes in seven financial variables: the federal funds rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the triple-B corporate bond yield, the Dow Jones total stock market index, the Zillow house price index, and the nominal broad dollar index using weights implied by the FRB/US model and other models in use at the Federal Reserve Board. These models relate households' spending and businesses' investment decisions to changes in short- and long-term interest rates, house and equity prices, and the exchange value of the dollar, among other factors. These financial variables are weighted using impulse response coefficients (dynamic multipliers) that quantify the cumulative effects of unanticipated permanent changes in each financial variable on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the subsequent year. The resulting index is named Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G). One appealing feature of the FCI-G is that its movements can be used to measure whether financial conditions have tightened or loosened, to summarize how changes in financial conditions are associated with real GDP growth over the following year, or both.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

The Securities Brokering industry primarily serves as an intermediary between investors and investment securities such as stocks, bonds and derivatives. Brokerage firms match a client's buy order with a third party's sell order or fulfill the client's order with their own investment products. In the past five years, industry revenue grew at a CAGR of 4.2% to $188.2 billion, including 0.3% in 2023 alone. The industry has undergone a series of large mergers and acquisitions to better compete with internal and external competition. Also, the industry has shifted to zero commission trades in response to new disruptive mobile trading platforms entering the market. Even as the COVID-19 pandemic caused general havoc in 2020, it had mixed effects on industry revenue.The average industry profit margin has been constrained over the past five years due to intense competition from online trading platforms that eliminate the need for financial intermediaries. Operators have responded to this trend by increasing their financial services offerings and transitioning to an asset-based fee structure characteristic of the Financial Planning and Advice industry (IBISWorld report 52393).Industry revenue will grow at a CAGR of 2.5% to $213.2 billion over the next five years. However, going forward financial market volatility is likely to increase, as the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to curb high inflation. In turn, demand for industry services is expected to grow at a slow rate as consumer confidence will likely take time to adjust to a changing financial landscape. Nonetheless, the industry will benefit from its efforts to diversify revenue streams over the next five years.

View the total value of the assets of all Federal Reserve Banks as reported in the weekly balance sheet.

Graph and download economic data for Exchange-Traded Funds; Unidentified Miscellaneous Assets, Level (BOGZ1FL563093003Q) from Q4 1945 to Q1 2025 about ETF, miscellaneous, assets, commodities, and USA.

Money Supply M2 in the United States increased to 21862.50 USD Billion in April from 21706.80 USD Billion in March of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Money Supply M2 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

The industry is composed of non-depository institutions that conduct primary and secondary market lending. Operators in this industry include government agencies in addition to non-agency issuers of mortgage-related securities. Through 2025, rising per capita disposable income and low levels of unemployment helped fuel the increase in primary and secondary market sales of collateralized debt. Nonetheless, due to the pandemic and the sharp contraction in economic activity in 2020, revenue gains were limited, but have climbed as the economy has normalized and interest rates shot up to tackle rampant inflation. However, in 2024 the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as inflationary pressures eased and is expected to be cut further in 2025. Overall, these trends, along with volatility in the real estate market, have caused revenue to slump at a CAGR of 1.5% to $485.0 billion over the past five years, including an expected decline of 1.1% in 2025 alone. The high interest rate environment has hindered real estate loan demand and caused industry profit to shrink to 11.6% of revenue in 2025. Higher access to credit and higher disposable income have fueled primary market lending over much of the past five years, increasing the variety and volume of loans to be securitized and sold in secondary markets. An additional boon for institutions has been an increase in interest rates in the latter part of the period, which raised interest income as the spread between short- and long-term interest rates increased. These macroeconomic factors, combined with changing risk appetite and regulation in the secondary markets, have resurrected collateralized debt trading since the middle of the period. Although the FED cut interest rates in 2024, this will reduce interest income for the industry but increase loan demand. Although institutions are poised to benefit from a strong economic recovery as inflationary pressures ease, relatively steady rates of homeownership, coupled with declines in the 30-year mortgage rate, are expected to damage the primary market through 2030. Shaky demand from commercial banking and uncertainty surrounding inflationary pressures will influence institutions' decisions on whether or not to sell mortgage-backed securities and commercial loans to secondary markets. These trends are expected to cause revenue to decline at a CAGR of 0.8% to $466.9 billion over the five years to 2030.

Since 2013, the Federal Reserve Board has conducted the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), which measures the economic well-being of U.S. households and identifies potential risks to their finances. The survey includes modules on a range of topics of current relevance to financial well-being including credit access and behaviors, savings, retirement, economic fragility, and education and student loans. The Board's seventh annual SHED examines the economic well-being and financial lives of U.S. adults and their families. The 2019 complete survey was conducted in October 2019, offering a picture of personal finances prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To obtain updated information in the midst of closures and stay-at-home orders, a smaller supplemental survey was conducted in April 2020, focusing on labor market effects and households' overall financial circumstances at that time. Demographic variables include age, level of education, gender, race, household income, and marital status. Users can use the industry information included in the data to obtain a perspective on financial conditions resulting from COVID-19 for individuals who work in arts and culture related fields.