The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and January 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at 9.1 percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at 5.33 percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to 4.33 percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was 158.11 percent, up from 153.12 a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) from 2008-12-16 to 2025-03-26 about federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March, and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. The first rate cut in 2025 then set the rate at 4.33 percent. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate - from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April - mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest 0.9 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately 6.76 trillion U.S. dollars by March 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached eight percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by November 2024, inflation had declined to 2.7 percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at 5.33 percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of 114.3 billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the 58.84 billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over 281 billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of 174.53 billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

Graph and download economic data for Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts (TERMCBCCALLNS) from Nov 1994 to Nov 2024 about consumer credit, credit cards, loans, consumer, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of June 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.09 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.69 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, High (FEDTARCTH) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, rate, and USA.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

Graph and download economic data for Bank Prime Loan Rate Changes: Historical Dates of Changes and Rates from 1955-08-04 to 2024-12-20 about prime, loans, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Increasing the Use of Interest Rate Floors for Small Firms (SUBLPDCISTFNQ) from Q2 2011 to Q1 2025 about small, domestic, Net, percent, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behaviour of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short-term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1994-2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model-implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there is a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks during this period.

The total interest expense of the Federal Reserve (Fed) increased drastically from 5.75 billion U.S. dollars in 2021 to 102.38 billion U.S. dollars in 2022, and this trend continued in 2023, when the Fed's interest expense exceeded 281 billion U.S. dollars. This was by far the highest interest expense reported during the observed period. As the Federal Reserve pays interest on the reserves banks keep at them, the interest expense of the Federal Reserve rocketed due to the sharply increasing interest rates in 2023.

United States FB: Incl IBF: CA: Memo: RT: Floating Interest Rates data was reported at 6.993 USD bn in Dec 2019. This records an increase from the previous number of 6.902 USD bn for Sep 2019. United States FB: Incl IBF: CA: Memo: RT: Floating Interest Rates data is updated quarterly, averaging 6.129 USD bn from Mar 2013 (Median) to Dec 2019, with 28 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.085 USD bn in Sep 2016 and a record low of 4.960 USD bn in Jun 2014. United States FB: Incl IBF: CA: Memo: RT: Floating Interest Rates data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.KB045: Balance Sheet: Foreign Banks: California.

The benchmark interest rate in Thailand was last recorded at 2 percent. This dataset provides - Thailand Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Bank Prime Loan Rate (DPRIME) from 1955-08-04 to 2025-03-24 about prime, loans, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Hong Kong was last recorded at 4.75 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Hong Kong Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

A survey from Q3 2022 suggest concerns among the majority of the United States banking industry about the rising Federal Reserve interest rates. 58 percent of the respondents worried that the Fed would overcorrect for inflation by raising the rates too fast and too high. In contrast, 10 percent of the respondents were concerned about not raising the rates fast enough. In terms of the timeline, the majority of the respondents expected that the Fed would hit its peak rate in the first half of 2023. Most respondents believed that the peak rate would be between 4.5 and 7.75 percent. As of December 2022, the Federal Funds Effective Rate was 4.1 percent.

Graph and download economic data for 50) Over the Past Three Months, How Has the Volume of Mark and Collateral Disputes Relating to Contracts of Each of the Following Types Changed?| B. Interest Rate. | Answer Type: Increased Considerably (ALLQ50BICNR) from Q4 2011 to Q4 2024 about contracts, volume, collateral, change, 3-month, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

After a period of gradual decline, the average annual rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States rose to 6.81 percent in 2023, up from the record-low 2.96 percent in 2021. The rate for 15-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend. This was a result of the Federal Reserve increasing the bank rate - a measure introduced to tackle the rising inflation. U.S. home prices going through the roof Mortgage rates have a strong impact on the market – the lower the rate, the lower the loan repayment. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreasing after the Great Recession has stimulated the market and boosted home sales. Another problem consumers face is the fact that house prices are rising at an unaffordable level. The median sales price of a new home sold surged in 2021, while the median weekly earnings of a full-time employee maintained a more moderate increase. What are the differences between 15-year and 30-year mortgages? Two of the most popular loan terms available to homebuyers are the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The 30-year option appeals to more consumers because the repayment is spread out over 30 years, meaning the monthly payments are lower. Consumers choosing the 15-year option will have to pay higher monthly payments but benefit from lower interest rates.

SCE: Interest Rate Expectation: Probability of Higher Average Interest Rate on Savings Accounts 1 Year from Now data was reported at 25.357 % in Feb 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 24.995 % for Jan 2025. SCE: Interest Rate Expectation: Probability of Higher Average Interest Rate on Savings Accounts 1 Year from Now data is updated monthly, averaging 29.855 % from Jun 2013 (Median) to Feb 2025, with 141 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 41.800 % in Mar 2017 and a record low of 24.225 % in Mar 2024. SCE: Interest Rate Expectation: Probability of Higher Average Interest Rate on Savings Accounts 1 Year from Now data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H078: Survey of Consumer Expectations: Financial.