Inflation Nowcasting Monthly Year-Over-Year is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and July 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at 9.1 percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at 5.33 percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to 4.33 percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was 158.11 percent, up from 153.12 a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

Inflation Nowcasting Monthly Month-Over-Month is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint (PCECTPICTM) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 30-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF30YR) from Jan 1982 to Sep 2025 about 30-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

Inflation Nowcasting Quarterly is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.90 percent in August from 2.70 percent in July of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March, and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged until September 2025, when another cut set the rate at 4.22 percent. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate - from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April - mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Rate, Range, Low was 2.00000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Rate, Range, Low reached a record high of 2.00000 in January of 2012 and a record low of 1.50000 in May of 2009. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Rate, Range, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on October of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF10YR) from Jan 1982 to Sep 2025 about projection, 10-year, inflation, and USA.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures less Food and Energy Inflation Rate, Median was 2.00000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures less Food and Energy Inflation Rate, Median reached a record high of 4.80000 in January of 2022 and a record low of 1.50000 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures less Food and Energy Inflation Rate, Median - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF1YR) from Jan 1982 to Sep 2025 about 1-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

Expected Inflation Term Structure is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

United States - 7-year Breakeven Inflation Rate was 2.39% in August of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - 7-year Breakeven Inflation Rate reached a record high of 3.14 in March of 2022 and a record low of -1.02 in November of 2008. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - 7-year Breakeven Inflation Rate - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on October of 2025.

The U.S. bank prime loan rate has undergone significant fluctuations over the past three decades, reflecting broader economic trends and monetary policy decisions. From a high of **** percent in 1990, the rate has seen periods of decline, stability, and recent increases. As of July 2025, the prime rate stood at *** percent, marking a notable rise from the historic lows seen in the early 2020s. Federal Reserve's impact on lending rates The prime rate's trajectory closely mirrors changes in the federal funds rate, which serves as a key benchmark for the U.S. financial system. In 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of rate hikes, pushing the federal funds target range to ******** percent by year-end. This was followed by several rate cuts in 2024, with the target range standing at 4.25 to 4.5 percent in December 2024. The aggressive monetary tightening in 2023 was aimed at combating rising inflation, and its effects rippled through various lending rates, including the prime rate. Long-term investment outlook While short-term rates have risen, long-term investment yields have also seen changes. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, a benchmark for long-term interest rates, showed an average market yield of **** percent in the second quarter of 2024, adjusted for constant maturity and inflation. This figure represents a recovery from negative real returns seen in 2021, reflecting shifting expectations for economic growth and inflation. The evolving yield environment has implications for both borrowers and investors, influencing decisions across the financial landscape.