We present federal funds rates coming from a range of simple monetary policy rules based on multiple economic forecasts. Use our tool to create your own rule. Released quarterly.

Federal Funds Rates Based on 7 Simple Rules is a part of the Simple Monetary Policy Rules indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and June 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

Dataset Description

This dataset contains the actual and predicted federal funds target rate for the United States from 1990 to 2023. The federal funds target rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to influence the economy.

The dataset includes the following five columns:

Release Date: The date on which the data was released by the Federal Reserve. Time: The time of day at which the data was released. Actual: The actual federal funds target rate. Predicted: The predicted federal funds target rate. Forecast: The forecast federal funds target rate.

Data Usage

This dataset can be used for a variety of purposes, including: - Analyzing trends in the federal funds target rate over time. - Forecasting the future path of the federal funds target rate. - Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy. - Data Quality

The data for this dataset is of high quality. The Federal Reserve is a reputable source of data and the data is updated regularly.

Data Limitations

The data for this dataset is limited to the United States. Additionally, the data does not include information on the factors that influenced the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to set the federal funds target rate.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

In June 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In the first half of 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.1 percent in June 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.4 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

United States Assets: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data was reported at 411.956 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 408.337 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Assets: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data is updated quarterly, averaging 63.778 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 417.640 USD bn in Sep 2017 and a record low of 3.832 USD bn in Dec 1951. United States Assets: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data was reported at 3.619 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -9.303 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.693 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 23.352 USD bn in Sep 2017 and a record low of -11.541 USD bn in Dec 2010. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

United States Liab: Outs: IMFC: Life Ins Co Reserves: Policy Dividend Accumulation data was reported at 32.838 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 32.335 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Liab: Outs: IMFC: Life Ins Co Reserves: Policy Dividend Accumulation data is updated quarterly, averaging 25.293 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 45.077 USD bn in Sep 2007 and a record low of 2.294 USD bn in Dec 1951. United States Liab: Outs: IMFC: Life Ins Co Reserves: Policy Dividend Accumulation data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

According to a survey conducted between July 9 and July 11, 2022, ** percent of Americans thought that Joe Biden was highly responsible for the current trend in the inflation rate. This is compared to ** percent of Americans who said President Biden did not have a lot of responsibility for the current inflation rate.

Inflation in the U.S. Global events in 2022 had a significant impact on the United States. Inflation rose from *** percent in January 2021 to *** percent in June 2022. Significantly higher prices of basic goods led to increased concern over the state of the economy, and the ability to cover increasing monthly costs with the same income. Low interest rates, COVID-19-related supply constraints, corporate profiteering, and strong consumer spending had already put pressure on prices before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite rising wages on paper, the rapid growth of consumer prices resulted in an overall decline in real hourly earnings in the first half of 2022.

How much control does Joe Biden have over inflation? The bulk of economic performance and the inflation rate is determined by factors outside the President’s direct control, but U.S. presidents are often held accountable for it. Some of those factors are market forces, private business, productivity growth, the state of the global economy, and policies of the Federal Reserve. Although high-spending decisions such as the 2021 COVID-19 relief bill may have contributed to rising inflation rates, the bill has been seen by economists as a necessary intervention for preventing a recession at the time, as well as being of significant importance to low-income workers impacted by the pandemic.

The most important tool for curbing inflation and controlling the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve. The Reserve has the ability to set, raise, and lower interest rates and determine the wider monetary policy for the United States – something out of the president’s control. In June 2022, the Reserve announced it would raise interest rates **** percent for the second time that year – hoisting the rate to a target range of **** to *** percent – in an attempt to slow consumer demand and balance demand with supply. However, it can often take time before the impacts of interventions by the Federal Reserve are seen in the public’s day-to-day lives. Most economists expect this wave of inflation to pass in a year to 18 months.

United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: saar: Policy Pay: Household data was reported at 14.476 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -37.212 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: saar: Policy Pay: Household data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.770 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 93.408 USD bn in Sep 2017 and a record low of -46.164 USD bn in Dec 2010. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: saar: Policy Pay: Household data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

Assets: Flow: IMFC: saar: Policy Pay: Nonfarm Noncorporate data was reported at 0.272 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -6.120 USD bn for Dec 2017. Assets: Flow: IMFC: saar: Policy Pay: Nonfarm Noncorporate data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.088 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 34.308 USD bn in Mar 1984 and a record low of -28.064 USD bn in Mar 2013. Assets: Flow: IMFC: saar: Policy Pay: Nonfarm Noncorporate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

The exchange rate of the NZD/USD currency pair continued to decline over the course of 2022. As of July 29, 2025, the exchange rate reached approximately 0.6 U.S. dollars per New Zealand dollar. Being one of the most traded currency pairs in the world, the NZD/USD is closely connected to monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. In early 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds in the United States declined, which led to a weaker U.S. dollar against the New Zealand dollar.

United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfarm Noncorporate data was reported at 0.068 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -1.530 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfarm Noncorporate data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.272 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.577 USD bn in Mar 1984 and a record low of -7.016 USD bn in Mar 2013. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfarm Noncorporate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

United States Assets: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfinancial Corporate data was reported at 368.392 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 366.147 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Assets: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfinancial Corporate data is updated quarterly, averaging 60.507 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 373.086 USD bn in Sep 2017 and a record low of 1.568 USD bn in Dec 1951. United States Assets: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfinancial Corporate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

Revenue for the Surveying and Mapping Services industry has been volatile in the years since the pandemic. As the economy emerged from a short-lived downturn, surveyors were buoyed by strong residential construction resulting from record-low interest rates. Investment from the commercial sector also expanded as corporate profit soared. However, as the Federal Reserve raised the cost of borrowing to combat high inflation, homebuying and existing home improvements declined, severely inhibiting the residential sector and prompting a multi-year revenue decline for the industry. While interest rates have remained elevated, the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law has pumped millions of dollars into highway construction, civil engineering, mineral surveying and geospatial data processing, rewarding select surveying and mapping companies with hefty contracts. Thus, industry revenue is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 2.0% through 2025, even as interest rates remain elevated. In 2025, the industry is projected to grow 1.8% with revenue totalling $11.5 billion.Advances in technology are revolutionizing surveying by enabling faster, more accurate data collection and processing. Mobile mapping tools, UAVs, 3D laser scanning and AI-driven analytics are streamlining workflows, reducing field time and expanding the range of services companies offer. These innovations are supporting complex projects in construction, infrastructure and smart city planning, while cloud-based GIS and automation are improving productivity. As these tools are becoming industry standards, companies that have been quick to adopt them have gained a competitive edge. This increased competition has left laggards behind, making innovation incumbent to sustaining profitability.The industry will continue to see modest expansion as steady economic growth will increase demand from the nonresidential sector. However, economic uncertainty and the expectation of conservative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates elevated, tempering the residential housing market. Still, surveyors will benefit from new home construction that is expected to rise above historical averages, especially in regions where job growth will support relocation. Through 2030, industry revenue is forecast to expand at a CAGR of 1.1% to reach $12.2 billion.

United States Liab: Flow: IMFC: Life Ins Company Reserves: Policy Dividend Accum data was reported at 0.503 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -1.769 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Liab: Flow: IMFC: Life Ins Company Reserves: Policy Dividend Accum data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.144 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.684 USD bn in Mar 2009 and a record low of -4.402 USD bn in Dec 2008. United States Liab: Flow: IMFC: Life Ins Company Reserves: Policy Dividend Accum data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: saar: Policy Pay: Nonfinancial Corporate data was reported at 8.980 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -27.756 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: saar: Policy Pay: Nonfinancial Corporate data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.416 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 71.444 USD bn in Sep 2017 and a record low of -27.756 USD bn in Dec 2017. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: saar: Policy Pay: Nonfinancial Corporate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.