Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMDLR) from 2012-01-25 to 2025-09-17 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and July 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

Quarterly projections of key macroeconomic variables and the policy-rate path from the Federal Reserve, commonly referenced as the dot plot for interest-rate expectations.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Lower End data was reported at 2.900 % in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.600 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Lower End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.500 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.000 % in Sep 2015 and a record low of 0.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Lower End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High (FEDTARRH) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, federal, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately *** trillion U.S. dollars by October 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by August 2025, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 3.600 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.600 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.200 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.100 % in Sep 2023 and a record low of 0.400 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

Inflation Nowcasting Quarterly is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data was reported at 2.400 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.400 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.000 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.900 % in Sep 2015 and a record low of 0.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

Graph and download economic data for Current General Activity; Diffusion Index for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia (GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI) from May 1968 to Oct 2025 about FRB PHI District, diffusion, indexes, and USA.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data was reported at 3.100 % in Mar 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.100 % for Dec 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.900 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.400 % in Sep 2018 and a record low of 0.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

Future New Orders; Percent Reporting Increases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia was 59.00% in September of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Future New Orders; Percent Reporting Increases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia reached a record high of 86.40 in June of 1983 and a record low of 13.70 in December of 1973. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Future New Orders; Percent Reporting Increases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

Future Shipments; Percent Reporting No Change for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia was 28.30% in September of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Future Shipments; Percent Reporting No Change for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia reached a record high of 61.40 in November of 1973 and a record low of 8.50 in May of 2025. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Future Shipments; Percent Reporting No Change for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

Current Prices Received; Percent Reporting Increases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia was 19.50% in September of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Current Prices Received; Percent Reporting Increases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia reached a record high of 66.80 in November of 2021 and a record low of 0.00 in September of 1971. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Current Prices Received; Percent Reporting Increases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

Current Prices Paid; Percent of Respondents Reporting No Change for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia was 32.10% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Current Prices Paid; Percent of Respondents Reporting No Change for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia reached a record high of 70.70 in September of 2015 and a record low of 14.50 in June of 2022. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Current Prices Paid; Percent of Respondents Reporting No Change for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

Future Inventories; Percent Reporting Increases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia was 23.70% in September of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Future Inventories; Percent Reporting Increases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia reached a record high of 52.40 in May of 1976 and a record low of 6.50 in October of 2005. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Future Inventories; Percent Reporting Increases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

Future Capital Expenditures; Percent Reporting Decreases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia was 4.60% in September of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Future Capital Expenditures; Percent Reporting Decreases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia reached a record high of 33.00 in March of 1990 and a record low of 0.00 in August of 1976. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Future Capital Expenditures; Percent Reporting Decreases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

Current Inventories; Percent Reporting Decreases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia was 12.10% in September of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Current Inventories; Percent Reporting Decreases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia reached a record high of 64.70 in March of 1975 and a record low of 3.60 in March of 2024. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Current Inventories; Percent Reporting Decreases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

United States - Current New Orders; Percent of Respondents Reporting Decreases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia was 38.30% in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Current New Orders; Percent of Respondents Reporting Decreases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia reached a record high of 67.50 in April of 2020 and a record low of 4.50 in March of 2018. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Current New Orders; Percent of Respondents Reporting Decreases for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.