The narrative approach to macroeconomic identification uses qualitative sources, such as newspapers or government records, to provide information that can help establish causal relationships. This paper discusses the requirements for rigorous narrative analysis using fresh research on the impact of monetary policy as the focal application. We read the historical minutes and transcripts of Federal Reserve policymaking meetings to identify significant contractionary and expansionary changes in monetary policy not taken in response to current or prospective developments in real activity for the period 1946 to 2016. We find that such monetary shocks have large and significant effects on unemployment, output, and inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely occurred in 2022. Based on the empirical estimates of the effect of previous shocks, one would expect substantial negative impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024.

The increasingly rapid productivity growth that began in the 1990s was the defining economic event of the decade and a major topic of debate among Federal Reserve policymakers. A key aspect of the debate was the contrast between information contained in aggregate data, which initially suggested little productivity gain, and anecdotal firm-level evidence, which hinted at the productivity acceleration. The authors revisit this debate from the actual FOMC transcripts. Their study illustrates the process by which policymakers filter incoming data to identify changes in underlying fundamental trends.

PGvsPI-43 plays a key role in discussions of banking supervision and wider financial regulation at the US Federal Reserve. The interview touches upon the relations between US regulators, global policymaking processes, and developments in the US markets (including desegmentation). The Financial Elite Policymakers Interviewed (FINEPINT) database consists of interviews with financial policymakers from advanced economies and emerging markets. The interviews touch upon both national-level regulatory developments and global-level policymaking processes, as well as the interactions between the two. Interviewees are officials from Ministries, Central Banks and Financial Supervisors, representatives of banking and financial associations, representatives of Civil Society Organizations, and officials from International Organizations working on global financial governance.The semi-structured interviews followed a standard format in which policymakers were asked about:1. The development of their negotiating positions, asking who is involved internally, how the positions are informed by external actors, and who are the main partners in the policymaking process.2. The developments in policymaking processes, asking what were the main drivers of new issues emerging on the agenda, what issues came up in policymaking processes, and who is influential in the policymaking processes.3. The outcomes, asking how the main issues in policymaking processes were resolved and what the expected impacts of new policies will be.Interviews were conducted from 1992 onwards, covering a period of profound changes in the global financial system and its governance. Broad topics that were the focal points of different waves of interviews were the interaction between public and private actors in global policymaking, the political economy of financial liberalization, the internationalization / globalization of financial markets and the regulatory response to this, the Basel Capital Accords, the resolution of sovereign debt crisis, and sustainable finance.Interviewees have been provided with the following options for the use of the transcript:• Quotation: direct quotes from the interview may be used and attributed in the reference.• Referencing, no quotation: interview may be refenced by name as support for a claim, but no direct quotes may be used.• No quotation or referencing: the interview may not be quoted or referenced by name.The principal investigators of the projects included in this database are prof. G.R.D. Underhill and dr. J. Blom. Data collection and development of this dataset has been made possible by:• NWO MaGW Open Competition grant ‘Public-private interaction and shifting patterns of governance’ (grant no. 400-04-233, prof. G.R.D. Underhill)• UKRI ESRC World Economy and Finance program grant ‘National and International Aspects of Financial Development’ (grant no. RES-156-25-0009).• EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation program, Marie Sklodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship grant ‘G20LAP: G20 Legitimacy and Policymaking’ (grant agreement no. 845121, dr. J. Blom).

Graph and download economic data for Large Bank Consumer Mortgage Originations: Original Loan-to-Value (LTV): 50th Percentile (RCMFLOLTVPCT50) from Q3 2012 to Q1 2025 about FR Y-14M, origination, large, percentile, mortgage, loans, consumer, banks, depository institutions, and USA.