In 2021, the birth rate in the United States was highest in families that had under 10,000 U.S. dollars in income per year, at 62.75 births per 1,000 women. As the income scale increases, the birth rate decreases, with families making 200,000 U.S. dollars or more per year having the second-lowest birth rate, at 47.57 births per 1,000 women. Income and the birth rate Income and high birth rates are strongly linked, not just in the United States, but around the world. Women in lower income brackets tend to have higher birth rates across the board. There are many factors at play in birth rates, such as the education level of the mother, ethnicity of the mother, and even where someone lives. The fertility rate in the United States The fertility rate in the United States has declined in recent years, and it seems that more and more women are waiting longer to begin having children. Studies have shown that the average age of the mother at the birth of their first child in the United States was 27.4 years old, although this figure varies for different ethnic origins.

The relative deprivation index can reflect the income inequality faced by different individuals, which is helpful to understand the relationship between income inequality and the variability of fertility intentions. But previous studies have almost focused on the macro indicators of income inequality, ignoring individual heterogeneity in income inequality. In this study, we explore the causal relationship and potential mechanisms between income inequality and fertility intentions from the perspective of relative deprivation in income. The findings are as follows: (1) An increase in income inequality boosts individuals’ fertility intentions, and the results are still robust after using the instrumental variables two-stage least squares (2SLS) model to deal with endogeneity. (2) Mechanism analysis reveals that income inequality improves individuals’ fertility intentions through the channels of “Build hopes on children”, “Allocate more time to families” and “Put less value on children’s education”. (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that income inequality has a more pronounced positive impact on fertility intentions of individuals with poor education, low household assets and without pension insurance. (4) Further analysis reveals that an increase in income inequality at macro level also promote individuals’ fertility intentions. Our findings hold significant policy implications for promoting a rebound in fertility rates. When developing policies to adjust income distribution, it is necessary to consider the response of individuals’ fertility decisions to income inequality. Policymakers should ensure that efforts to improve income distribution do not inadvertently reduce the willingness of individuals to have more children.

The relative deprivation index can reflect the income inequality faced by different individuals, which is helpful to understand the relationship between income inequality and the variability of fertility intentions. But previous studies have almost focused on the macro indicators of income inequality, ignoring individual heterogeneity in income inequality. In this study, we explore the causal relationship and potential mechanisms between income inequality and fertility intentions from the perspective of relative deprivation in income. The findings are as follows: (1) An increase in income inequality boosts individuals’ fertility intentions, and the results are still robust after using the instrumental variables two-stage least squares (2SLS) model to deal with endogeneity. (2) Mechanism analysis reveals that income inequality improves individuals’ fertility intentions through the channels of “Build hopes on children”, “Allocate more time to families” and “Put less value on children’s education”. (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that income inequality has a more pronounced positive impact on fertility intentions of individuals with poor education, low household assets and without pension insurance. (4) Further analysis reveals that an increase in income inequality at macro level also promote individuals’ fertility intentions. Our findings hold significant policy implications for promoting a rebound in fertility rates. When developing policies to adjust income distribution, it is necessary to consider the response of individuals’ fertility decisions to income inequality. Policymakers should ensure that efforts to improve income distribution do not inadvertently reduce the willingness of individuals to have more children.

The relative deprivation index can reflect the income inequality faced by different individuals, which is helpful to understand the relationship between income inequality and the variability of fertility intentions. But previous studies have almost focused on the macro indicators of income inequality, ignoring individual heterogeneity in income inequality. In this study, we explore the causal relationship and potential mechanisms between income inequality and fertility intentions from the perspective of relative deprivation in income. The findings are as follows: (1) An increase in income inequality boosts individuals’ fertility intentions, and the results are still robust after using the instrumental variables two-stage least squares (2SLS) model to deal with endogeneity. (2) Mechanism analysis reveals that income inequality improves individuals’ fertility intentions through the channels of “Build hopes on children”, “Allocate more time to families” and “Put less value on children’s education”. (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that income inequality has a more pronounced positive impact on fertility intentions of individuals with poor education, low household assets and without pension insurance. (4) Further analysis reveals that an increase in income inequality at macro level also promote individuals’ fertility intentions. Our findings hold significant policy implications for promoting a rebound in fertility rates. When developing policies to adjust income distribution, it is necessary to consider the response of individuals’ fertility decisions to income inequality. Policymakers should ensure that efforts to improve income distribution do not inadvertently reduce the willingness of individuals to have more children.

The impact of macro-level income inequality on fertility intention.

This paper investigates the impact mechanism by which an incentive-based fertility policy may reduce the labor income share. First, the specific paths through which this impact mechanism is realized are analyzed using the production function. It is found that an incentive-based fertility policy triggers high savings, which implies more, cheaper, and more readily available capital to be invested in production. A distribution system that earns income based on factor contributions results in more gains for capital than labor, i.e., a lower share of labor income and a wider income gap between labor and capital. Second, the impact mechanism includes three theoretical hypotheses. They are that an encouraging fertility policy is negatively related to labor income share; this relationship is valid provided that the study subject is in a closed economy; and that capital intensification is a mediator variable of fertility policy affecting labor income share. Finally, to further corroborate the impact mechanism in this paper, a Hansen threshold panel model is applied to verify that the effect of fertility policy on labor income share has a threshold effect. This indicates that the effect of the former on the latter changes significantly before and after the change in fertility policy, confirming the existence of an impact mechanism. The established literature has paid little attention to the impact of incentivised fertility policies on the labour income gap. Using capital intensification as the mediating variable, this paper demonstrates the existence of the former effect on the latter. In view of this, under the encouraged fertility policy, this paper proposes specific measures to enhance the labor income share in order to narrow the income gap between labor and capital.

Percentage distribution of surveyed facilities according to their background characteristics in the 10 countries surveyed using the SPA.

As of 2023, the bulk of the Chinese population was aged between 25 and 59 years, amounting to around half of the population. A breakdown of the population by broad age groups reveals that around 61.3 percent of the total population was in working age between 16 and 59 years in 2023. Age cohorts below 25 years were considerably smaller, although there was a slight growth trend in recent years. Population development in China Population development in China over the past decades has been strongly influenced by political and economic factors. After a time of high fertility rates during the Maoist regime, China introduced birth-control measures in the 1970s, including the so-called one-child policy. The fertility rate dropped accordingly from around six children per woman in the 1960s to below two at the end of the 20th century. At the same time, life expectancy increased consistently. In the face of a rapidly aging society, the government gradually lifted the one-child policy after 2012, finally arriving at a three-child policy in 2021. However, like in most other developed countries nowadays, people in China are reluctant to have more than one or two children due to high costs of living and education, as well as changed social norms and private values. China’s top-heavy age pyramid The above-mentioned developments are clearly reflected in the Chinese age pyramid. The age cohorts between 30 and 39 years are the last two larger age cohorts. The cohorts between 15 and 24, which now enter childbearing age, are decisively smaller, which will have a negative effect on the number of births in the coming decade. When looking at a gender distribution of the population pyramid, a considerable gender gap among the younger age cohorts becomes visible, leaving even less room for growth in birth figures.