Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

This statistic shows the fertility rate worldwide from 1975 to 2100. By 2100, the worldwide fertility rate is projected to be an average of 1.94 children per woman.

Belgium BE: Fertility Rate: per Woman data was reported at 1.400 NA in 2100. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.400 NA for 2099. Belgium BE: Fertility Rate: per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 1.400 NA from Jun 1991 (Median) to 2100, with 110 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.860 NA in 2008 and a record low of 1.400 NA in 2100. Belgium BE: Fertility Rate: per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Belgium – Table BE.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

Argentina AR: Fertility Rate: per Woman data was reported at 1.430 NA in 2100. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.430 NA for 2099. Argentina AR: Fertility Rate: per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 1.430 NA from Jun 1980 (Median) to 2100, with 121 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.500 NA in 1980 and a record low of 1.430 NA in 2100. Argentina AR: Fertility Rate: per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Argentina – Table AR.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

Bangladesh BD: Fertility Rate: per Woman data was reported at 1.700 NA in 2100. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.700 NA for 2099. Bangladesh BD: Fertility Rate: per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 1.985 NA from Jun 1981 (Median) to 2100, with 120 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.200 NA in 1981 and a record low of 1.700 NA in 2100. Bangladesh BD: Fertility Rate: per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Bangladesh – Table BD.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

The COVID-19 pandemic increased the global death rate, reaching *** in 2021, but had little to no significant impact on birth rates, causing population growth to dip slightly. On a global level, population growth is determined by the difference between the birth and death rates, known as the rate of natural change. On a national or regional level, migration also affects population change. Ongoing trends Since the middle of the 20th century, the global birth rate has been well above the global death rate; however, the gap between these figures has grown closer in recent years. The death rate is projected to overtake the birth rate in the 2080s, which means that the world's population will then go into decline. In the future, death rates will increase due to ageing populations across the world and a plateau in life expectancy. Why does this change? There are many reasons for the decline in death and birth rates in recent decades. Falling death rates have been driven by a reduction in infant and child mortality, as well as increased life expectancy. Falling birth rates were also driven by the reduction in child mortality, whereby mothers would have fewer children as survival rates rose - other factors include the drop in child marriage, improved contraception access and efficacy, and women choosing to have children later in life.

Future county population was based on projections for 2100 from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM; Theobald 2005). SERGoM simulates population based on existing patterns of growth by census block, groundwater well and road density, and transportation distance to urban areas, while constraining the pattern of development to areas outside of protected areas and urban areas (Theobald 2005). The dataset here is a projection for a “baseline” growth scenario that assumes a similar trajectory to that of current urban growth (Bierwagen et al. 2010). SERGoM accuracy is estimated as 79–99% when compared to 1990 and 2000 census data, with the accuracy varying by urban/exurban/rural categories and increasing slightly with coarser resolution (Theobald 2005). The accuracy of future model predictions with different economic scenarios is most sensitive to fertility rates, which are subject to cultural change, economic recessions, and the current pattern of lands protected from development (Bierwagen et al. 2010). Bierwagen, B. G., D. M. Theobald, C. R. Pyke, A. Choate, P. Groth, J. V. Thomas, and P. Morefield. 2010. National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107:20887-20892. Theobald, D. M. 2005. Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecology and Society 10: article 32.

Almost 80% of the 4 billion projected increase in world population by 2100 comes from 37 Mid-African Countries (MACs), caused mostly by slow declines in Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Historically, TFR has declined in response to increases in wellbeing associated with economic development. We show that, when Infant Survival Rate (ISR, a proxy for wellbeing) has increased, MAC fertility has declined at the same rate, in relation to ISR, as it did in 61 comparable Other Developing Countries (ODCs) whose average fertility is close to replacement level. If MAC ISR were to increase at the historic rate of these ODCs, and TFR declined correspondingly, then the projected world population in 2100 would be decreasing and 1.1 billion lower than currently projected. Such rates of ISR increase, and TFR decrease, are quite feasible and have occurred in comparable ODCs. Increased efforts to improve the wellbeing of poor MAC populations are key.

These charts show the trend in world population growth from the year 1CE to 2100, and the future decline in birth and death rates.

Austria AT: Fertility Rate: per Woman data was reported at 1.400 NA in 2100. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.400 NA for 2099. Austria AT: Fertility Rate: per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 1.400 NA from Jun 1991 (Median) to 2100, with 110 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.500 NA in 2016 and a record low of 1.320 NA in 2001. Austria AT: Fertility Rate: per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Austria – Table AT.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

Albania Fertility Rate: per Woman data was reported at 1.100 NA in 2100. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.100 NA for 2099. Albania Fertility Rate: per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 1.100 NA from Jun 1989 (Median) to 2100, with 112 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.090 NA in 1992 and a record low of 1.090 NA in 2034. Albania Fertility Rate: per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Albania – Table AL.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

This statistic shows the contribution of fertility to future global population growth from 2015 to 2100. Decreased fertility will reduce forecasted population growth in more developed regions of the world by over 333 million people by 2100.

The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100, were adopted in 2000 from population projections realized at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in 1996. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES A1 and B1 scenarios both used the same IIASA "rapid" fertility transition projection, which assumes low fertility and low mortality rates. The SRES A2 scenario used a corresponding IIASA "slow" fertility transition projection (high fertility and high mortality rates). Both IIASA low and high projections are performed for 13 world regions including North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, China and Centrally Planned Asia, Pacific Asia, Pacific OECD, Central Asia, Middle East, South Asia, Eastern Europe, European part of the former Soviet Union, Western Europe, Latin America, and North America. This data set is produced and distributed by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).

Niger had the highest birth rate in the world in 2024, with a birth rate of 46.6 births per 1,000 inhabitants. Angola, Benin, Mali, and Uganda followed. Except for Afghanistan, all 20 countries with the highest birth rates in the world were located in Sub-Saharan Africa. High infant mortality The reasons behind the high birth rates in many Sub-Saharan African countries are manyfold, but a major reason is that infant mortality remains high on the continent, despite decreasing steadily over the past decades, resulting in high birth rates to counter death rates. Moreover, many nations in Sub-Saharan Africa are highly reliant on small-scale farming, meaning that more hands are of importance. Additionally, polygamy is not uncommon in the region, and having many children is often seen as a symbol of status. Fastest-growing populations As the high fertility rates coincide with decreasing death rates, countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have the highest population growth rates in the world. As a result, Africa's population is forecast to increase from 1.4 billion in 2022 to over 3.9 billion by 2100.

Australia Fertility Rate: per Woman data was reported at 1.700 NA in 2100. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.700 NA for 2099. Australia Fertility Rate: per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 1.710 NA from Jun 1986 (Median) to 2100, with 115 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.990 NA in 2008 and a record low of 1.700 NA in 2100. Australia Fertility Rate: per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

Belarus BY: Fertility Rate: per Woman data was reported at 1.700 NA in 2100. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.700 NA for 2099. Belarus BY: Fertility Rate: per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 1.550 NA from Jun 1989 (Median) to 2100, with 112 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.030 NA in 1989 and a record low of 1.190 NA in 2004. Belarus BY: Fertility Rate: per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Belarus – Table BY.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

The methodology used to produce these projections differs from ICLUS v2.0 (https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/iclus/recordisplay.cfm?deid=322479). The demographic components of change (i.e., rates of fertility and mortality) for ICLUS v2.1 were taken directly from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer (http://witt.null2.net/shiny/wic/). These projections were produced more recently than the Census projections used in ICLUS v2.0, and incorporate more recent observations of population change. SSP2 is a “middle-of-the-road” projection, where social, economic and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns, resulting in a U.S. population of 455 million people by 2100. Domestic migration trends remain largely consistent with the recent past, however the amenity value of local climate (average precipitation and temperature for summer and winter) is used in ICLUS v2.1.1 to influence migration patterns. The name of the climate model used as the source of future climate patterns is included at the end of the file name (e.g., "GISS-E2-R" or "HadGEM2-ES"). The approach for incorporating climate change into the migration model is described in the ICLUS v2.0 documentation. The SSP5 narrative describes a rapidly growing and flourishing global economy that remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and a U.S. population that exceeds 730 million by 2100. ICLUS v2.1 land use projections under SSP5 result in a considerably larger expansion of developed lands relative to SSP2. The the amenity value of local climate (average precipitation and temperature for summer and winter) is used in ICLUS v2.1.1 to influence migration patterns. The name of the climate model used as the source of future climate patterns is included at the end of the file name (e.g., "GISS-E2-R" or "HadGEM2-ES"). The approach for incorporating climate change into the migration model is described in the ICLUS v2.0 documentation. RCP4.5 assumes that global greenhoue gas emissions increase into the latter part of the century, before leveling off and eventually stabilizing by 2100 as a result of various climate change policies. RCP8.5 assumes that global greenhoue gas emissions increase through the year 2100.

24,3 (отношение) в 2100. Total fertility in all countries is assumed to converge eventually toward a level of 1.85 children per woman. However, not all countries reach this level during the projection period, that is, by 2045-2050. Projection procedures differ slightly depending on whether a country had a total fertility above or below 1.85 children per woman in 2005-2010.

Fertility in high- and medium-fertility countries is assumed to follow a path derived from models of fertility decline established by the United Nations Population Division on the basis of the past experience of all countries with declining fertility during 1950-2010. The models relate the level of total fertility during a period to the average expected decline in total fertility during the next period. If the total fertility projected by a model for a country falls to 1.85 children per woman before 2050, total fertility is held constant at that level for the remainder of the projection period (that is, until 2050). Therefore, the level of 1.85 children per woman represents a floor value below which the total fertility of high- and medium-fertility countries is not allowed to drop before 2050. However, it is not necessary for all countries to reach the floor value by 2050. If the model of fertility change produces a total fertility above 1.85 children per woman for 2045-2050, that value is used in projecting the population.

In all cases, the projected fertility paths yielded by the models are checked against recent trends in fertility for each country. When a country’s recent fertility trends deviate considerably from those consistent with the models, fertility is projected over an initial period of 5 or 10 years in such a way that it follows recent experience. The model projection takes over after that transition period. For instance, in countries where fertility has stalled or where there is no evidence of fertility decline, fertility is projected to remain constant for several more years before a declining path sets in.

Fertility in low-fertility countries is generally assumed to remain below 2.1 children per woman during most of the projection period and reach 1.85 children per woman by 2045-2050. For countries where total fertility was below 1.85 children per woman in 2005-2010, it is assumed that over the first 5 or 10 years of the projection period fertility will follow the recently observed trends in each country. After that transition period, fertility is assumed to increase linearly at a rate of 0.05 children per woman per quinquennium. Thus, countries whose fertility is currently very low need not reach a level of 1.85 children per woman by 2050.
Projected levels of net migration are generally kept constant over most of the projection period. Mortality is projected on the basis of models of change of life expectancy produced by the United Nations Population Division. These models produce smaller gains the higher the life expectancy already reached. The selection of a model for each country is based on recent trends in life expectancy by sex. For countries highly affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the model incorporating a slow pace of mortality decline has generally been used to project a certain slowdown in the reduction of general mortality risks not related to HIV/AIDS.

The world's population first reached one billion people in 1805, and reached eight billion in 2022, and will peak at almost 10.2 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two-thirds of the world's population lives in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a few years later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.

The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100, were adopted in 2000 from population projections realized at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in 1996. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES A1 and B1 scenarios both used the same IIASA "rapid" fertility transition projection, which assumes low fertility and low mortality rates. The SRES A2 scenario used a corresponding IIASA "slow" fertility transition projection (high fertility and high mortality rates). Both IIASA low and high projections are performed for 13 world regions including North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, China and Centrally Planned Asia, Pacific Asia, Pacific OECD, Central Asia, Middle East, South Asia, Eastern Europe, European part of the former Soviet Union, Western Europe, Latin America, and North America. This data set is produced and distributed by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).