As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury Yield: Rate Cap Adjusted: Money Market <100M (MMTYRCA) from Apr 2021 to Feb 2025 about marketable, adjusted, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of 27.38 percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Concept: Average interest rate from new credit operations started in the reference period, which are under regulation by the National Monetary Council (CMN) or linked to budget funds. The rate is weighted by the value of operations. Refers to special financing operations which require proof of proper use of funds, linked to medium and long term production and investments projects. Funds origins are shares of checking accounts and savings accounts and funds from governmental programs. Source: Central Bank of Brazil – Statistics Department 25487-month-average-interest-rate-of-earmarked-new-credit-operations---non-financial-corporations-- 25487-month-average-interest-rate-of-earmarked-new-credit-operations---non-financial-corporations--

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Turkey Investment Yield: USD: Real: PPI Based: 1 Month data was reported at 1.400 % pa in Jun 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 5.260 % pa for May 2018. Turkey Investment Yield: USD: Real: PPI Based: 1 Month data is updated monthly, averaging -0.285 % pa from Jan 1997 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 258 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20.210 % pa in Oct 2008 and a record low of -18.900 % pa in Mar 2001. Turkey Investment Yield: USD: Real: PPI Based: 1 Month data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Turkish Statistical Institute. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Turkey – Table TR.Z022: Yield on Financial Investments.

Real interest rate is the lending interest rate adjusted for inflation as measured by the GDP deflator. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their co...

Although the Federal Reserve publishes the yield-to-maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds, the returns earned by investors are not publicly available. We estimate a return series starting in 1962 using yield-to-maturity data of government bonds with 10 year maturity and include formulas to update the paper going forward.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest 0.9 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately 6.76 trillion U.S. dollars by March 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached eight percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by November 2024, inflation had declined to 2.7 percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at 5.33 percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of 114.3 billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the 58.84 billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over 281 billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of 174.53 billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

United States - 90-Day AA Financial Commercial Paper Interest Rate was 4.29% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - 90-Day AA Financial Commercial Paper Interest Rate reached a record high of 6.68 in June of 2000 and a record low of 0.04 in May of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - 90-Day AA Financial Commercial Paper Interest Rate - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for ICE BofA Private Sector Financial Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index Effective Yield (BAMLEMFSFCRPIEY) from 1998-12-31 to 2025-03-26 about sub-index, emerging markets, financial, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Concept: Average interest rate from new credit operations started in the reference period, which are under regulation by the National Monetary Council (CMN) or linked to budget funds. The rate is weighted by the value of operations. Refers to special financing operations which require proof of proper use of funds, linked to medium and long term production and investments projects. Funds origins are shares of checking accounts and savings accounts and funds from governmental programs. Source: Central Bank of Brazil – Statistics Department 20773-average-interest-rate-of-earmarked-new-credit-operations---households---real-estate-financing 20773-average-interest-rate-of-earmarked-new-credit-operations---households---real-estate-financing

The real interest rate in Mongolia decreased by 11.4 percentage points (-89.41 percent) compared to the previous year. The real interest rate thereby reached its lowest value in recent years. Over the observed period, the real interest rate has been subject to fluctuation.Real interest rate is the adjusted lending interest rate to remove the effects of inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator (implicit price deflator).Find more statistics on other topics about Mongolia with key insights such as deposit interest rate, domestic credit to the private sector as a share of GDP, and broad money as a percentage of GDP.

Concept: Average interest rate from new credit operations, established under market conditions and taken in the reference period. The rate is weighted by the value of operations. Excludes operations with regulated rates, operations with funds from the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) or any operations with government funds or funds with mandatory destination. Source: Central Bank of Brazil – Statistics Department 25447-month-average-interest-rate-of-nonearmarked-new-credit-operations---non-financial-corporation 25447-month-average-interest-rate-of-nonearmarked-new-credit-operations---non-financial-corporation

In January 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.5 percent in January 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Forward Yield: 3 year data was reported at 3.637 % pa in Jul 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.469 % pa for Jun 2020. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Forward Yield: 3 year data is updated monthly, averaging 4.062 % pa from Jul 2008 (Median) to Jul 2020, with 145 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.799 % pa in Dec 2013 and a record low of 2.721 % pa in Dec 2008. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Forward Yield: 3 year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Interbank Funding Center. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: NIFC: Policy Financial Bond Yield: Forward Yield.

The real interest rate in Myanmar decreased to 9.01 percent compared to the previous year. Over the observed period, the real interest rate has been subject to fluctuation.Real interest rate is the lending interest rate adjusted for inflation as measured by the GDP deflator.Find more statistics on other topics about Myanmar with key insights such as deposit interest rate, broad money as a percentage of GDP, and domestic credit to the private sector as a share of GDP.

China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Yield to Maturity: 11 year data was reported at 3.747 % pa in Jul 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.473 % pa for Jun 2020. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Yield to Maturity: 11 year data is updated monthly, averaging 4.170 % pa from Jul 2008 (Median) to Jul 2020, with 145 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.831 % pa in Jan 2014 and a record low of 3.078 % pa in Apr 2020. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Yield to Maturity: 11 year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Interbank Funding Center. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: NIFC: Policy Financial Bond Yield: Yield to Maturity.

China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Spot Yield: 9 year data was reported at 3.712 % pa in Jul 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.432 % pa for Jun 2020. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Spot Yield: 9 year data is updated monthly, averaging 4.082 % pa from Jul 2008 (Median) to Jul 2020, with 145 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.806 % pa in Jan 2014 and a record low of 2.970 % pa in Apr 2020. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Spot Yield: 9 year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Interbank Funding Center. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: NIFC: Policy Financial Bond Yield: Spot Yield.

China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Yield to Maturity: 21 year data was reported at 3.939 % pa in Jul 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.850 % pa for Jun 2020. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Yield to Maturity: 21 year data is updated monthly, averaging 4.525 % pa from Jul 2008 (Median) to Jul 2020, with 145 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.174 % pa in Apr 2014 and a record low of 3.351 % pa in Oct 2016. China Policy Financial Bond Yield: Interbank: Yield to Maturity: 21 year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Interbank Funding Center. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: NIFC: Policy Financial Bond Yield: Yield to Maturity.