The U.S. commercial real estate sector had more favorable debt service coverage ratios before the COVID-19 outbreak than before the global financial crisis. In 2019, the debt service coverage ratio of the homebuilders' sector equaled to ***, while it was **** at the end of 2007. The debt service coverage ratio of the residential sector was eight in 2019, up from *** in 2007.

Background: In light of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and its large economic consequences, we used a three-layer nested structural model (individual, community, and country), each with a corresponding measure of income, trust, and satisfaction, to assess change in their interrelationships following a global crisis; which, in this study, is the 2008/2009 financial crisis.Methods: With multilevel techniques, we analyzed data from two waves (2006 and 2012) of the European Social Survey (ESS) in 19 countries (weighted N = 73,636) grouped according to their levels of trust.Results: In high trust countries, personal life satisfaction (LS) was not related to personal, community, or national income before or after the crisis. In contrast, in low trust countries, LS was strongly related to all three forms of income, especially after the crisis. In all country groups, personal, social, and political trust moderated their respective effects of income on LS (“the buffer hypothesis”). Political trust moderated the effects of income more strongly in low trust countries. The moderating effect of political trust increased sharply after the crisis. After the crisis, national-level factors (e.g., political trust, national income) increased their importance for LS more than the factors at the local and individual levels. However, the relative importance of all the three forms of income to LS increased after the crisis, to the detriment of trust.Conclusion: Economic crises seem to influence personal LS less in high trust countries compared with low trust countries. Hence, high trust at a national level appears to buffer the negative impact of a financial crisis on personal satisfaction. Overall, the factors at the national level increased their impact during the financial crisis. When facing a global crisis, the actions taken by institutions at the country level may, thus, become even more important than those taken before the crisis.

Between ************ and *********, global recession fear went through periods of sharp increases three times. First, in the summer of 2019, due to an escalation in U.S.-China relations and a recession signal being flashed by the bond market. The second peak of worldwide recession fear took place in **********, as a result of the alarming jump in the rate of COVID-19 cases. The fear of recession started to increase sharply again in *************, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated.

Context

This dataset is a derivative of Reinhart et. al's Global Financial Stability dataset which can be found online at: https://www.hbs.edu/behavioral-finance-and-financial-stability/data/Pages/global.aspx

The dataset will be valuable to those who seek to understand the dynamics of financial stability within the African context.

Content

The dataset specifically focuses on the Banking, Debt, Financial, Inflation and Systemic Crises that occurred, from 1860 to 2014, in 13 African countries, including: Algeria, Angola, Central African Republic, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Tunisia, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Acknowledgements

Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K., Trebesch, C. and Reinhart, V. (2019) Global Crises Data by Country. [online] https://www.hbs.edu/behavioral-finance-and-financial-stability/data. Available at: https://www.hbs.edu/behavioral-finance-and-financial-stability/data/Pages/global.aspx [Accessed: 17 July 2019].

Inspiration

My inspiration stems from two questions: "Which factors are most associated with Systemic Crises in Africa?" And; "At which annual rate of inflation does an Inflation Crisis become a practical certainty?"

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Context

This data presented is collected over many years by Carmen Reinhart (with her coauthors Ken Rogoff, Christoph Trebesch, and Vincent Reinhart). These include Banking Crisis dates for more than 21 European countries from 1800-2016, exchange rate crises, stock market crises, sovereign debt growth and default, and many other data series.

Content

The dataset specifically focuses on the Banking, Debt, Financial, Inflation, and Systemic Crises that occurred, from 1800 to 2016, in 13 European countries, including: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom.

Acknowledgements

Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K., Trebesch, C. and Reinhart, V. (2019) Global Crises Data by Country. [online] https://www.hbs.edu/behavioral-finance-and-financial-stability/data. Available at: https://www.hbs.edu/behavioral-finance-and-financial-stability/data/Pages/global.aspx [Accessed: 1 September 2020].

Inspiration

Study about the economic factors in European Countries. Carry out various experimental results which can significantly improve the generalization performance for systemic crises using historical financial data of European countries over the past 200 years.

As of December 2019, most Italians did not know what the European Stability Mechanism was. Additionally, ** percent had general knowledge about this European organization, while only **** percent declared to exactly know what the ESM was.

The ESM is an international European organization located in Luxembourg providing financial funding for the monetary stability of the Eurozone. Its proposed reform was an object of discussion in Italian politics in the last months. The parties Lega and Fratelli d'Italia put the topic into discussion, accusing the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte of lack of transparency about the proposed reform. However, the terms of the reform were already known in December 2018.

This article analyzes cross-country data encompassing 130 countries and regions from 2000 to 2019 to investigate the correlation between financial crises, labor market frictions, and economic volatility. The empirical findings demonstrate that financial crises have a milder impact on real gross domestic product (GDP) in developing countries with flexible labor markets. This trend also applies to non–eurozone developed countries, where labor market flexibility aids crisis mitigation. However, this pattern doesn’t hold for eurozone countries. Further examination of developing nations reveals that those with heightened labor market flexibility tend to experience reduced adverse effects on non-tradable sectors, thereby mitigating the impact on real GDP.

EP survey. On the eve of the European elections, it was important to measure Europeans' perceptions of the EU's actions in the face of the economic and financial crisis. Respondents who feel informed about the euro are more likely to support its introduction (57% compared with 44% of those who do not feel informed). Overall 51% feel informed about the euro, while 47% do not. The most notable change since the 2019 survey has been an increase in Poland of citizens feeling informed (+7 pp) to 53% now. There have also been substantial increases of five percentage points since 2019 both in Bulgaria (to 45%) and Croatia (to 52%), while 54% in Bulgaria and 47% in Croatia (both -5pp) do not feel informed. * Volume A: Countries * Volume AA: Groups of countries * Volume A' (AP): Trends * Volume AA' (AAP): Trends of groups of countries * Volume B: EU/socio-demographics * Volume B' (BP) : Trends of EU/ socio-demographics * Volume C: Country/socio-demographics

Researchers may also contact GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences: https://www.gesis.org/eurobarometer

A large fraction of banks’ revenue comes from noninterest income, which includes items such as overdraft fees and ATM charges. We investigate whether this source of income has increased since the financial crisis, given that banks’ interest income may have been impacted by the low interest rate environment. We find that total noninterest income has actually decreased. However, service charges, one of the subcomponents of noninterest income, have increased. The increase in service charges is masked in the data on total noninterest income because other types of noninterest income, specifically securitization fees and other types of noninterest income affected by the crisis, fell during the same period.

As of December 2019, **** percent of Italian respondents believed that the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) was damaging for Italy and thus it had to be abolished.

The ESM is an international European organization located in Luxembourg providing financial funding for the monetary stability of the Eurozone. Its proposed reform was an object of discussion in Italian politics in the last months. The parties Lega and Fratelli d'Italia put the topic into discussion, accusing the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte of lack of transparency about the proposed reform. However, the terms of the reform were already known in December 2018.

A further survey shows that most Italians did not know what the European Stability Mechanism was. Only **** percent of respondents declared to know exactly what the ESM meant.

Global Crisis Management Software Market is segmented by Application (Businesses_ Government Agencies_ Healthcare Organizations_ Financial Institutions_ Non-Profit Organizations), Type (Crisis Communication_ Incident Management_ Business Continuity Planning_ Risk Management_ Crisis Response), and Geography (North America_ LATAM_ West Europe_Central & Eastern Europe_ Northern Europe_ Southern Europe_ East Asia_ Southeast Asia_ South Asia_ Central Asia_ Oceania_ MEA)

This indicator measures the supposed capacity of the inhabitants to cope financially with the crisis by comparing the median standard of living per municipality with the median standard of living of the department. Depending on their standard of living, residents will be more or less dependent on the insurance system to anticipate repair work and make a return to normal faster. The result is expressed in fraction (1 = departmental median) per municipality.

Due to the financial crisis facing Puerto Rico, many medical professionals on the island have left. Former Governor Rossello passed Act 14 in April of 2017 hoping to stave off the exodus of physicians. Act 14 reduces the income tax charge on medical services from 30 percent to 4 percent for 15 years. During the same year Puerto Rico experience a devastating category 4 hurricane, which left the island without power or water for several months. We will use a difference in difference estimation to estimate the effects of this change in the marginal tax rate to both keep physicians on the island as well as attract new physicians to the island from the mainland US. We use data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, the May Occupational Employment Statistics counts, and the AAMC Report on Residents. We find the number of healthcare providers decreased by 6.5 percent. The number of family physicians and pediatricians fell by 17.5 percent and 62 percent respectively. However, the number of registered nurses increased by 2.7 percent. Although the levels of healthcare providers decreases, the rate of healthcare provides per capita actually increased during this time period since the population decreases more rapidly than the fall in the level of healthcare providers.The zip file includes a STATA do file, readme file, and the following data files.AAMC Report of Resident xls file contains counts of residents by state and yearMay Occupational Employment Statistics Counts 2000-2019Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages establishment counts of physician offices by county by quarter from 2000 to 2019

This statistic depicts the number of medtech IPOs before and after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, as of autumn 2020. In the three years before the financial crisis, there was an average of 30.7 IPOs annually (for financial years July-June) in the medical technology sector. In 2019-2020, there were 14 medtech IPOs reported which was the lowest number within a decade. The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on medtech IPOs has yet to be seen.

With the outbreak of the Great Recession, the European Union suffered an extraordinary crisis. More specifically, the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area had a particularly devastating impact on the Southern periphery of the EU, where unemployment levels rocketed and living standards dropped substantially (Bermeo and Pontusson 2012). At the same time, these countries have applied strong austerity policies, which have been generally rejected by the majority of the population and have contributed to a rise in inequality to levels not seen since before the 1930s (IMF, 2013). Since 2007, levels of satisfaction with democracy, trust in the democratic institutions and support for the EU and the euro dropped extraordinarily. This research project covers five surveys conducted in Spain, one of the main Southern European countries, on the topic of democratic dissatisfaction. The surveys contribute to a better understanding of the political consequences of the crisis in Southern Europe by analysing the increase in democratic disaffection and its relation with EU constraints, globalization and governments implementing policies that do not represent citizens’ preferences. The surveys also study responsibility attributions in a multilevel state like Spain. The main hypothesis of this project is that Southern European countries are undergoing a crisis of legitimation. Citizens' democratic dissatisfaction is the consequence of a responsiveness gap: that is, citizens' perception that governments are not responding to their demands anymore. The surveys allow to study how this crisis of representation and legitimation has taken place and its consequences. They provide information of what are the mechanisms by which democratic dissatisfaction increased in the decade after the Great Recession and the austerity measures implemented by the subsequent Spanish governments. All surveys include representative samples of the Spanish population. The data contains a collection of five surveys in which different views on satisfaction with democracy, views on the European Union and the financial crisis were asked in Spain.

This project wants to contribute to a better understanding of the political consequences of the crisis in Southern Europe and is motivated by the unprecedented decrease in levels of satisfaction with democracy. The main hypothesis of this project is that Southern European countries are undergoing a crisis of legitimation. Citizens' democratic dissatisfaction is the consequence of a responsiveness gap: that is, citizens' perception that governments are not responding to their demands anymore. The project will study how this crisis of representation and legitimation is taking place and its consequences. More specifically, the project answers to three main questions:

1. What explains democratic dissatisfaction in Southern Europe? This part of the project will test the core argument: the crisis of legitimation stems from national governments not being responsive to citizens' mandate given the institutional constraints of euro membership. One of the key principles of democratic systems is to provide an alternative to voters if they believe that the government has not performed well enough. The argument put forward here is that the crisis has undermined this essential function of voting in Southern Europe: elections are not able to generate governments in which political parties become a real alternative to each other.

2. What is the impact of democratic dissatisfaction on attitudes towards national democracy? The project will argue that the increase in democratic dissatisfaction and the breakup of the representation link has a strong impact on attitudes in several dimensions of national-level politics: 1) austerity policies have an impact in the expectations that citizens have from a democratic system and make citizens depart from a liberal and minimal view on democracy to conceive democracies more as a result, placing more weight on the social rights of citizens 2) the project will also test whether the crisis of legitimation increases the demand for institutions of direct democracy; 3) the project will account for whether, as a result of this representation breakup, some citizens have become less engaged with politics and others have become more mobilised. In doing this, differences between the countries of analysis will also be explored.

3. How does democratic dissatisfaction shape attitudes towards the European Union and the euro in Southern Europe? The project will assess the implications of the crisis in terms of the support and views about the European Union project and also the conditions under which citizens of Southern Europe would support a breakup of the Eurozone. This last stream of the project will fill two main gaps in the discipline: to provide an updated account of citizens' motivations to support the euro and open a new avenue of research on the support for debt repayment and the conditions of bailout agreements.

The expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised a wide range of concerns about its environmental impact. Therefore, from the perspective of environmental impacts, this study used the two-way fixed effect staggered differences in differences (TWFE Staggered DID) method to examine the impact of the BRI on the Environment Goods (EGs) intra-industry trade (IIT) between China and other Belt and Road (B&R) countries, including a sample of 191 countries, covering the period from 2010 to 2019 for eliminating the impact of COVID-19 and the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Because only 135 countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding between 2010 and 2019, this study treated these B&R countries as the study group, and the other 73 countries (non-B&R countries) as the control group. This study described EGs using the 54 6-digit code Environment Goods in Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System listed in the “APEC LIST OF ENVIRONMENT GOODS” published by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in 2012, and used the intra-industry trade index proposed by Grubel and Lloyd in 1971 to measuring dependent variable. The research results indicated that the BRI has significantly promoted bilateral EGs IIT. The mechanism test implied that, in addition to direct impacts, the BRI also has indirect impacts by boosting the energy restructuring of B&R countries. These results prove that the BRI has positive impacts on the environment. The heterogeneity test showed that there is a heterogeneous impact depending on the type of IIT, product categorization, B&R countries’ income levels, and geographic environment. This study not only gives theoretical and empirical evidence of the positive environmental impacts of the BRI, but also provides practical guidance for the development of EGS IIT between China and B&R countries, thereby contributing to global carbon emissions reduction and environmental governance to some degree.

In a July 2019 survey, ** percent of likely November 2020 voters said that Wall Street should be held more accountable for the 2008 financial crisis through increased regulation and greater enforcement.

The solvency of the five largest banks in the Netherlands remained well above the minimum levels required by European regulations in 2024, despite notable differences among them. That year, only ABN AMRO reported a lower Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio compared to the previous year. The CET1 ratio measures a bank’s core capital relative to its risk-weighted assets, indicating how well-capitalized a bank is to absorb potential losses. In simple terms, it reflects how much capital a bank has set aside in case its investments fail. Introduced in 2014 following the global financial crisis, the CET1 ratio is a key regulatory safeguard intended to strengthen financial stability. By 2019, banks were required to meet a minimum CET1 ratio of 4.5 percet.

The data covers job search activities and employment outcomes for participants in an online study on the provision of occupational recommendations to job seekers.

Providing job search assistance to job seekers in a cost effective manner is a challenging goal. Interventions aimed at providing tailored advice typically involve large personnel costs that often dissipate the benefits. However, the advances in information technologies and the shift of formal job search to online platforms over the last 20 years offer new opportunities for providing advice at very low-cost. In this study we examine the potential for providing on-line advice to a population of hard-to-place job seekers.

In a randomized field experiment, we provided suggestions about suitable alternative occupations to long-term unemployed job seekers. The suggestions were automatically generated, integrated in an online job search platform, and fed into actual search queries. Effects on the primary pre-registered outcomes of "finding a stable job" and "reaching a cumulative earnings threshold" are positive, large, and are more pronounced for those who are longer unemployed. Treated individuals include more occupations in their search and find more jobs in recommended occupations.

The crisis and its aftermath have thrown up many challenges for macroeconomics. For the past thirty years the predominant methodology in macroeconomics has been a class of models that assume an absence of heterogeneity across firms, individuals, etc., and assume that individuals have access to well-functioning insurance markets.

These models have been widely criticised for providing no insight into the current crisis. The crisis has highlighted i) the extreme nature of labour market responses as unemployment has remained high while nominal wages have remained inflexible; ii) the importance of credit markets in generating as well as propagating shocks.. It is our view that that a deeper understanding of credit and labour markets, how they interact and how shocks in these markets aggregate and propagate is fundamental to the understanding of the macroeconomy. This agenda requires building a model of the economy based on realistic features of credit and labour markets including differences in information among agents, differences in attitudes towards risk, the inability to specify or contract upon all future contingencies, and recognising the limits of contractual enforceability. It requires an understanding of how behaviour in individual markets aggregates and how, in turn, the macroeconomic environment feeds back to individual markets. Our aim is to transform research in macroeconomics and to build its foundations on a thorough understanding of credit and labour markets.

Credit markets: We will consider why financial markets occasionally dry up, why banks simultaneously borrow and lend to each other and how this affects financial risk and monetary policy. An important component of this analysis is that differences in information between holders of assets and potential buyers creates illiquidity, that is, holders find it costly to reverse an asset trade once made. The relationship between contagious illiquidity and market failure, such as we have seen in the financial crisis, is a core element of this theme.

Labour markets: Traditional models have difficulties accounting for the fluctuations, and the sluggishness in responses, of employment and wages. We will investigate this issue from two angles. First, we will look into the black-box of standard job search models by examining how job-seekers determine which jobs to apply for, how this changes with unemployment and how selections depend on occupation, salary and travel distance. Second, we will examine the nature of the employment relationship after job search is completed, its durability, the evolution of wages and productivity and the dependence of both on current, past, and anticipated macroeconomic conditions.

The macroeconomy: An economy is the aggregation of the activities in individual markets. It is important to know if behaviour at the level of individual markets is amplified or washed-out at the aggregate level. For example, if employment responses at the firm level are sluggish, does this imply sluggish responses at the macro level? Understanding this aggregation issue requires insight into the structure of employment responses at the firm level. We expect that the joint analysis of credit and labour markets and how they aggregate will provide new insights for the understanding of the macroeconomy.