As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

As of July 18, 2025, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United Kingdom had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Graph and download economic data for 20-Year 2% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Bond, Due 1/15/2026 (DTP20J26) from 2010-01-04 to 2025-09-05 about 20-year, fees, TIPS, bonds, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.77% on September 5, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.05 points, though it remains 0.37 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a real shock to society and business and financial markets. The government bond market is an essential part of financial markets, especially in difficult times, because it is a source of government funding. The majority of existing ESG studies report positive impacts on corporate financial performance regarding environmental, social, and governance. Thus, understanding governments’ financial practices and their relevant ESG implications is insufficient. This research aims to value the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on different government bond curve sectors. We try to identify the reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic in the government bond market and analyze separate tenors of government bond yields in different regions. We have chosen Germany and the United States government bond yields of 10, 5, and 3 years tenor for the analysis. As independent variables, we have chosen daily cases of COVID-19 and daily deaths from COVID-19 at the country and global levels. We used daily data from 02 January 2020–19 March 2021, and divided this period into three stages depending on the COVID-19 pandemic data. We employed the methods of correlation-regression analysis (ordinary least squares and least squares with breakpoints) and VAR-based impulse response functions to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on government bond yields both in the long and short run. Our analysis revealed the impact of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic on government bond yields differs depending on the country and the assessment period. The short-term responses vary in direction, strength, and duration; the long-term response of Germany’s yields appeared to be more negative (indicating the decrease of the yields), while the response of the United States yields appeared to be more positive (i.e., increase of yields).

Graph and download economic data for 30-Year 3-5/8% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Bond, Due 4/15/2028 (DTP30A28) from 1998-04-13 to 2025-09-04 about TIPS, 30-year, bonds, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

This dataset contains high-frequency sovereign bond prices and yields across multiple maturities and countries, including Australia (AU) and the United States (US). The data spans several time points and includes detailed pricing for 1-month to 30-year government securities. This dataset enables macro-financial analysis of yield curve dynamics, monetary policy impacts, sovereign risk pricing, and cross-country bond market behavior. Originally used to contextualize U.S. municipal borrowing costs relative to national benchmarks, this data supports robust time-series econometric modeling.

BondCliQ is a central market system for the OTC corporate bond market that establishes price integrity and facilitates market modernization.

As of December 2024, all United Kingdom government debt securities were returning positive yields, regardless of maturity. This places the yield of both UK short term bonds and long term bonds above that of major countries like Germany, France and Japan, but lower than the United States. What are government bonds? Government bonds are debt instruments where a certain amount of money is given to the issuer, in exchange for regular payments of interest over a fixed period. At the end of this period the issuer then returns the amount in full. Bonds differ from a regular loan through how they can be traded on financial markets once issued. This ability to trade bonds makes it more complex to measure the return investors receive from bonds, as the price they buy a bond for on the market may differ from the price the same bond was initially issued at. The yield is therefore calculated as what investors can expect to receive based on current market prices paid for the bond, not the value it was issued at. In total, UK government debt amounted to over 2.4 trillion British pounds in 2023 – with the majority being comprised of different types of UK government bonds. Why are inverted yield curves important? UK government bond yields over recent years have taken on a typical shape, with short term bonds having a lower yield than bonds with a maturity of 10 to 20 years. The higher yield of longer-term bonds compensates investors for the higher level of uncertainty in the future. However, if investors are sufficiently worried about both a short term economic decline, and low long term growth, they may prefer to purchase short term bonds in order to secure assets with regular interest payments in the here and now (as opposed to shares, which can lose a lot of value in a short time). This can lead to an inverted yield curve, where shorter term debt has a higher yield. Inverted yield curves are generally seen as a reliable indicator of a recession, with inverted yields occurring before most recent U.S. recessions. The major exception to this is the recession from the coronavirus pandemic – but even then, U.S. yield curves came perilously close to being inverted in mid-2019.

The yield on Australia 10Y Bond Yield eased to 4.31% on September 5, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.05 points and is 0.41 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

As of November 2024, Luxembourg government bonds with maturities of close to ten years reached an average of **** percent per annum. That was almost *** percent less than the previous year. Treasury notes: a safe haven in times of trouble Ten-year government bonds, otherwise known as treasury notes, are debt obligations issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. In August 2019, investors became more interested in these investments as global developments sparked uncertainty on the stock markets. Traditionally, government bonds from the U.S. and Germany have the highest liquidity. When stock exchanges fall with around ten percent, a German treasury note with an interest rate of around **** percent is then considered a relatively safe place. What are other options to do with your money in Luxembourg? In March 2023, the interest rate of short-term household deposits (with an agreed maturity of up to one year) in Luxembourg was ****. This was the lowest of all Benelux countries (Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands). Low interest rates on consumer savings are deemed a consequence of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), as it maintains artificially low interest rates to increase inflation on the European continent. Low interest rates and uncertainty on the stock exchange might therefore explain investors’ interest in gold. The international price of gold per troy ounce has increased sharply in recent years.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield eased to 2.67% on September 5, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.02 points and is 0.50 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Invesco Trust (VGM) Municipal Bonds: A Safe Haven in Uncertain Times

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year 0.125% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Bond, Due 01/15/2030 (DTP10J30) from 2020-02-20 to 2025-09-05 about TIPS, 10-year, bonds, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 20-Year 2-3/8% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Bond, Due 1/15/2027 (DTP20J27) from 2010-01-04 to 2025-09-05 about 20-year, TIPS, bonds, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 30-Year 2-1/8% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Bond, Due 2/15/2041 (DTP30F41) from 2011-02-23 to 2025-09-05 about TIPS, 30-year, bonds, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

One of the major duties the Bank of England (BoE) is tasked with is keeping inflation rates low and stable. The usual tactic for keeping inflation rates down, and therefore the price of goods and services stable by the Bank of England is through lowering the Bank Rate. Such a measure was used in 2008 during the global recession when the BoE lowered the bank base rate from **** percent to *** percent. Due to the economic fears surrounding the COVID-19 virus, as of the 19th of March 2020, the bank base rate was set to its lowest ever standing. The issue with lowering interest rates is that there is an end limit as to how low they can go. Quantitative easing Quantitative easing is a measure that central banks can use to inject money into the economy to hopefully boost spending and investment. Quantitative easing is the creation of digital money in order to purchase government bonds. By purchasing large amounts of government bonds, the interest rates on those bonds lower. This in turn means that the interest rates offered on loans for the purchasing of mortgages or business loans also lowers, encouraging spending and stimulating the economy. Large enterprises jump at the opportunity After the initial stimulus of *** billion British pounds through quantitative easing in March 2020, the Bank of England announced in June that they would increase the amount by a further 100 billion British pounds. In March of 2020, the headline flow of borrowing by non-financial industries including construction, transport, real estate and the manufacturing sectors increased significantly.

Fixed Income Assets Management Market Outlook

The global fixed income assets management market size is projected to grow significantly from USD 10 trillion in 2023 to USD 15.5 trillion by 2032, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2%. This growth is driven by a combination of factors including the increasing demand for stable and predictable income streams, the aging population in developed economies, and the global shift towards more conservative investment strategies. The market is also influenced by regulatory changes and technological advancements that enhance the accessibility and management of fixed income assets.

A major growth factor in the fixed income assets management market is the rising demand for stable income sources, especially in uncertain economic climates. Investors, both institutional and retail, are increasingly seeking investment vehicles that offer predictable returns with lower risk profiles compared to equities. This is particularly appealing in times of economic volatility and low interest rates, where traditional savings accounts and other low-risk options provide minimal returns. Fixed income assets such as government and corporate bonds are particularly attractive for their ability to provide steady income through regular interest payments.

Another significant driver is the demographic shift in developed economies towards an aging population. As people approach retirement, their investment strategies often shift from growth-oriented assets to more conservative, income-generating investments. Fixed income assets match this need perfectly, offering lower volatility and preserving capital while generating a steady stream of income. This demographic trend is expected to sustain and potentially increase demand for fixed income management services, as retirees seek to secure their financial future through reliable investments.

Technological advancements are also playing a crucial role in the growth of the fixed income assets management market. Innovations such as robo-advisors and advanced analytics tools are making it easier for investors to access and manage their fixed income portfolios. These technologies facilitate better decision-making by providing real-time data, risk assessment, and performance tracking. Additionally, the proliferation of online platforms and financial applications has democratized access to fixed income investments, allowing even small retail investors to participate in markets that were traditionally dominated by large institutional players.

From a regional perspective, North America continues to dominate the fixed income assets management market owing to its well-established financial infrastructure and a high concentration of institutional investors. However, Asia Pacific is emerging as a significant growth region due to its expanding middle class and increasing investor awareness. Europe also shows strong potential, driven by regulatory support and a growing preference for sustainable and ethical investments. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are gradually catching up, albeit at a slower pace, due to evolving financial markets and increasing foreign investments.

Asset Type Analysis

In the realm of fixed income assets management, government bonds hold a prominent position due to their low risk and high liquidity. Governments issue these bonds to finance public projects and manage national debt, making them a relatively safe investment. Institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, favor government bonds for their stability and predictable returns. Retail investors also appreciate the security offered by these bonds, especially in uncertain economic times. The demand for government bonds is expected to remain strong, driven by ongoing government borrowing and the need for risk-averse investment options.

Corporate bonds are another significant segment within the fixed income assets market. These bonds are issued by corporations to finance operations, expansions, or other business activities. While they carry higher risk compared to government bonds, they also offer higher returns, attracting investors seeking a balance between risk and reward. The corporate bond market is diverse, ranging from investment-grade bonds issued by financially strong companies to high-yield bonds from riskier issuers. The ongoing growth in corporate activities and the need for capital are expected to sustain the demand for corporate bonds.

Municipal bonds, issued by local governments or municipalities, are popular for their tax advantages. Interest

The yield on Poland 10Y Bond Yield rose to 5.46% on September 5, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.02 points, though it remains 0.17 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Poland 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.